NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 8, 4:46 PM AKST, 4 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 8, 4:46 PM AKST, 4 hours 6 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
446 PM AKST Wed Mar 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures are causing areas of freezing rain, sleet and
snow across the Southern Interior that will change to snow over
the Western Interior this afternoon and over the Eastern Interior
this evening. Snow will taper off over the Western Interior
tonight, and taper off in Ern Interior Thu PM except for
lingering in Ern AK Range into Fri. Expect 2-4 inches of snow most
areas, with 6 inches in the Eastern Brooks Range, over the White
Mountains, and along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range.
Snow will spread into Eastern North Slope this afternoon with
strong west winds and blowing snow developing this evening.
Deadhorse will see west winds gusting to 40 mph and 1/2 mile
visibility, while Barter Island will have west winds gusting to
60 mph and blizzard conditions. Conditions will improve at
Deadhorse by noon Thu, and at Barter Island by 6pm Thu.
Between 4 and 7 inches of snow is expected over the North Slope
from the Dalton Highway east. The Brooks Ranges Passes will see
south winds gusting to 30 mph until this evening, then north winds
gusting to 40 mph with blowing snow from tonight into Thu
evening.
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a strong long wave ridge
stretching from the tropics north over Eastern Alaska to near the
North Pole, and a deep long wave trough over Eastern Russia, the
NW Pacific and the Western Bering Sea. A strong short wave trough
over the West Coast of Alaska will make its way east digging
through the ridge and to the ALCAN Border Thu night. Precipitation
will mostly diminish west of this trough.
A second strong short wave trough will move east over the Chukchi
Sea on Fri, and to north of Deadhorse to Cape lisburne to along
the Dateline by Sat PM, then then drop south over Mainland AK on
Sun. This will bring another round of precip into NW AK on Fri
night and Sat, and bring below normal temperatures to Northern AK
by Sun and into next week.
Surface...
A 1008 mb low 300 nm north of Point Barrow move to 400 NM north of
Demarcation Point by 3pm Thu, and to Banks Island as a 1024 mb low
by 3pm Fri. A polar occluded front stretching from this low to
Deadhorse to Bethel will move east to the ALCAN Border tonight
then continue east. There is mixed freezing rain and snow east of
the front that will change to all all snow along and west of the
front. Expect 2-4 inches of snow with the front, with up to 6
inches in upslope areas south as the Eastern Brooks Range, the
Eastern Alaska Range, and the White Mountains.
An Arctic cold front stretching south from this low to Atqasuk to
the YK Delta will move to Demarcation POint to McGrath by 3am Thu,
to Inuvik to Northway to the Bristol Bay by 3pm Thu, then
continue southeast. Gusty west winds to 40 mph will move east
with the front bringing near blizzard conditions to zones 203,
206, passes of 218, Summits of 219 and 220, Passes of 226 and 226,
and along the Alaska Highway from Delta east. West winds gusting
to 60 mph and Blizzard conditions will accompany the front to zone
204 tonight through Fri AM.
A 1018 mb low moving to near Wrangel Is by 3am Fri will move to
500 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1010 mb low by 3am Sat. This
will bring a chance of snow to NW AK Fri PM, and likely snow over
NW AK Sat along with increasing NW winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models verify well aloft. Models show similar solutions
aloft through Fri, with slight differences on the strength and
speed of the short wave moving east across the Arctic Ocean and
Chukchi Sea Fri night and Sat. The Canadian and ECMWF are faster
with this feature on Fri night and Sat and then faster dropping
this south over Alaska Sun and Mon and forming a long wave trough
over AK by Mon. At this time favor a blend of models for features
aloft through Fri afternoon, then a blend of the Canadian and
ECMWF for Fri night and Sun to show the more rapidly moving
system over the Arctic.
At 850 mb show temps above 0C over area SE of McGrath to Eagle
Summit to Dot Lake falling to below 0C by 06Z Thu. Significant
cooling occuring through Thu, remaining cool Fri and Sat, then
dropping significantly next week. Surface temps should see
dropping towards normal by Thu night, then remaining near normal
through the weekend, and dropping below normal next week. MOS
temperatures appear to be much too warm on Thu.
For precipitation, models show similar precipitation amounts and
areal coverage through Fri. Will use a blend of models for precip
amounts and coverage through Fri. For fri night and Sat the ECMWF
is faster moving precip into NW AK, and since we favor the ECMWF
aloft, will use the ECMWF precip for Fri night and Sat. Caveats
for precip will be: Mixed precip over Wrn Interior Central
Interior changing to snow this afternoon, and mixed precip
spreading into Eastern Interior this afternoon that will change to
snow this evening. Snow will spread into Ern North Slope this
afternoon as well. Snow will taper off over Wrn Interior tonight,
taper off on Ern North Slope on Thu AM, and taper off in Ern
Interior Thu night except for lingering in Ern AK Range into Fri.
Expect 2-4 inches of snow most areas, with 6 inches in the Ern
Brooks Range, over the White Mountains, and along the North Slope
of the Alaska Range.
At the surface at 18Z, models all verify about 5 mb too weak on
the low north of Utqiagvik and also about 100 NM further south.
The NAM keeps the low deeper than other models and also verifies
well on winds at 18Z. Although the NAM is too weak on this low, it
also keeps the low further south than it currently is, so the NAM
winds may turn out ok with a slight bump up in the Ern Arctic
Coast tonight through Thu night. Will use the NAM winds through
Fri afternoon, then trend into the ECMWF winds for Fri night and
Sat since those are preferred solutions aloft during those
periods.
Coastal Hazard Potential...Water on top of the sea ice from
Utqiagvik to the Yukon Delta should freeze over the next few days.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-221.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-220-222.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ223-226.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ224.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ225.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ227.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.
PK...Winter Weather Advisory for PKZ814.
Blizzard Warning for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ814.
Gale Warning for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&
JB