A deep upper-level low dropped south into the Kuskokwim Delta and eastern Bering Sea, as multiple shortwaves passed through its flow. These shortwaves pulled cold air southward, leading to increased winds in response to these features, as well as snowfall along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutian Islands as a cold front ahead of the low crossed the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians…
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A deep upper-level low dropped south into the Kuskokwim Delta and eastern Bering Sea, as multiple shortwaves passed through its flow. These shortwaves pulled cold air southward, leading to increased winds in response to these features, as well as snowfall along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutian Islands as a cold front ahead of the low crossed the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians beginning Monday night, March 13. Widespread snow showers continued through Thursday, March 16, as gusty winds produced blowing snow and reduced visibilities at times.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 3:02 PM AKST, 5 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 402 PM AKDT Sun Mar 12 2023 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... High pressure over eastern Alaska is weakening as an upper level trough slides across western Alaska this morning. Well ahead of this trough are cirrus clouds that span from Kodiak to Nelchina. Thicker clouds behind the cirrus will slowly move in. Some light showers exist on the western side of the Alaska Range, but will diminish as they move into the dry airmass across south central. Intense cold air that is moving from the Bering Strait will increase freezing spray intensity as air temperatures dip below zero across the St. Matthews and Nunivak Island waters. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... At the synoptic levels, models are in really good agreement. Among the main models, all are in agreement with the Aleutian chain high pressure getting pinched to the northwest, before rebuilding over the western Bering. A weak trough dropping south across western Alaska will weaken tomorrow, before an upper level low dives in, parking over Bristol Bay by mid week. The strength and extent of the cold arctic air advancing in over the region remains locked in agreement as well. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will for a few hours this evening. Northerly winds will become gusty into the evening hours. Winds should peak around 30 kt by early Monday morning, before slowly weakening into Monday's daylight hours. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)... A cold arctic airmass continues to advect southward across Southcentral as various upper-level features traverse the area from the north. Clouds returned today as an upper trough approaches the region from the northwest. The trough will drop southeastward into Cook Inlet and the western Gulf tonight before tracking into the Pacific on Monday. Increased chances for light snow accompany this feature, mainly along the Kenai Mountains and western Chugach Range from tonight through early tomorrow morning. A surface low forms over the Gulf tonight and Monday, and the tightening offshore pressure gradient combined with cold air advection supports the development of gusty north to northwesterly winds. Winds will strengthen through tonight and then persist through Monday. The strongest winds are expected Monday morning through the bays and passes along the coast, especially near Kodiak Island, Seward, Valdez, and the Copper River Delta. Skies are expected to clear for a brief period on Monday afternoon as a shortwave ridge builds in advance of a large upper low approaching from the northwest. By Tuesday, the low is advertised to enter the western Gulf while low pressure strengthens at the surface near the Southcentral coast. Through Wednesday, winds will shift east-southeasterly and chances for snow showers and accumulation increase for western Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)... An upper-level shortwave continues to dig southward across Southwest tonight with another quick on its heels. Cold air will be pulled southward with the aforementioned shortwaves and lead to a cooling trend in the coming days. Winds will also increase in response to these features tracking through the region. The second trough/shortwave will likely bring some light snow showers to the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday afternoon, but the bulk of the precipitation will be along the Alaska Peninsula starting Monday night. Snow is expected to continue for the Alaska Peninsula through at least Thursday with gusty winds that could produce blowing snow that may reduce visibilities at times. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3: Tonight through Wednesday)... High pressure continues along the northern and western Bering with a trough extending into the central and eastern Bering. A shortwave continues to drop southward from the north across Southwest tonight, with a second shortwave/trough following soon after. The first will be relatively benign with no major impacts. The second will bring a swath of cold air and rounds of showers across the southern Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula. Continued snow showers across the eastern Aleutians paired with gusty winds could lead to blowing snow that may reduce visibilities at times. Strong cold air advection will produce gusty conditions and elevated seas in the northern and eastern Bering. The combination of strong winds, cold temperatures, and building seas is expected to lead to extreme vessel icing at rates of 4 cm an hour or greater from late Monday night through Wednesday night for areas in the northern and eastern Bering Sea. Conditions may persist into Thursday or longer, so be sure to know before you go and check back with the forecast for updates! && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday) Unsettled but largely benign weather is expected for the extended period, with a general warm-up from chilly conditions in the short-term forecast. The feature to watch will be a strong low moving into the Western Bering/Aleutians late next Sunday, bringing the potential for storm force winds. Much of the long-term forecast through Saturday will be dominated by a somewhat stagnant pattern, with a broad upper level low in the Gulf and a ridge of high pressure over the Western Bering Sea. The upper level low will help spur the development of several surface lows in the Gulf, with considerable uncertainty remaining in the track and strength of these individual surface features. These lows will likely bring winds of small craft to gale force to marine areas, with gusty northerly winds possible across Southcentral (especially Valdez) as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure inland and low pressure offshore. The Gulf coast can expect multiple rounds of snow through Thursday, with a stronger plume of moisture bringing the potential for coastal rain and inland precipitation for Friday and Saturday. Given uncertainty with the track and strength of individual lows, there is lower forecast confidence regarding the timing/magnitude of winds and precipitation amounts. Further west, light winds and little to no precipitation are expected across the Western Bering and Aleutians due to the ridge. The Central to Eastern Aleutians, sandwiched between the ridge to its west and the low to its east, can expect brisk northerly winds and snow showers gradually tapering off through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are expected for Southwest Alaska. By Saturday and Sunday, an upper level trough moving east from Russia will weaken and begin displacing the ridge. A front will sweep west to east across the Bering Sea, followed by a strong low moving into the Western Bering by Sunday night. This low could bring the potential for storm force winds along the Western Bering and Aleutians. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...Gale Kodiak, SW Alaska, Bering Sea Heavy Freezing Spray Kodiak, Cook Inlet, SW Alaska, Bering Sea FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS LONG TERM...KC
2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Gusty northerly winds along with snow and blowing snow were reported at the Cold Bay ASOS. Periods of low visibility were also recorded at the ASOS ranging from 1/2 to 1/4 sm. Snow, freezing fog, and northwesterly winds 25-30 mph were noted, with gusts to 40 mph.
Gusty northerly winds along with snow and blowing sow were reported at the Dutch Harbor ASOS. Periods of low visibility were also recorded at the ASOS ranging from 1/2 to 1/4 sm. Snow and northwesterly winds 25-30 mph were noted, with gusts to 40 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105209, 1105210.