Lightning Strike in Alaska, June 23, 2023

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
257 PM AKDT Fri Jun 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer is back in the Interior with warmer temps and afternoon
thunderstorms. Saturday will be more active as a low from the
Gulf of AK lifts north and sparks afternoon and evening
thunderstorms which may produce heavy rainfall, lightning, and
small hail. OUt west, it remains showery with extensive clouds
along the coast. East winds are increasing along the N Slope with
a mix of sun and fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A shortwave ridge axis is nosing into the SE Interior from British
Columbia. This is essentially an extension of the "Yukon" Ridge
which has been notably absent for most of this summer in Alaska.
There is a 529 dam large and sprawling upper low near Adak. There
is a migratory cutoff upper low kicking northeast through the
Gulf of Alaska. There is a departing closed arctic low moving east
across the Canadian Arctic.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are doing great with the general synoptic
pattern. They continue to struggle around the convective
initiation and then development of a lee low over the SE Interior
Saturday. Nevertheless, there is good confidence in a easterly
wave type event with potential heavy rainfall and widely
scattered thunderstorm activity for most of the S Interior
including Fairbanks and surrounding area.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Isolated thunderstorms will end this evening but a few showers
will likely linger until morning over the S Interior. Saturday
starts generally dry but will quickly warm into the upper 70s.
Thunderstorms form over near the ALCAN and will progress west
during the afternoon. Expecting some thunderstorms will also form
over the Interior higher terrain from the White Mtns west.
Expecting some storms to be strong with copious rainfall given the
high precipitable water environment and instability. Storms may
also give frequent lightning and small hail. Outdoor recreators in
the S Interior should pay attention to the sky tomorrow afternoon.

Sunday will be drier and then strong south winds will blast
through most of the Interior as a low from the Gulf moves inland
with gusts to 30 mph, higher over the higher terrain. Expecting
winds to reach near 60 mph through the AK Range from the south,
with winds ramping up Saturday evening and peaking Sunday
afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will favor the
higher terrain and S Brooks Range. Monday looks cooler and cloudy
with showers.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Another weak front is moving into the N Bering Sea and will
continue the cloudy and cooler pattern over the West Coast.
Isolated to widely scattered wet thunderstorms will favor the
Interior and Yukon Valley/Middle Kusko Valley although
thunderstorms will be possible as far north as the Noatak Valley
and SW Brooks Range. Sunday a band of heavier rainfall will form
over the Noatak Valley and move into Kotzebue Sound as a front
lifts northward.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cool conditions will continue for today. Areas to the east of
Utqiagvik will see some low stratus and patchy fog. East winds
of 15 to 25 mph will develop today and will continue into
Saturday and will help to enhance the stratus along the coast.
Increasing chances for Brooks Range showers and isolated
thunderstorms develop as south flow aloft emerges for the weekend.
Heavier rainfall will form over the W Brooks Range Sun evening and
Monday as a front moves over. Some rain may make it to the coast
by Monday. Temps warm for the weekend with inland low 70s and
some upper 50s to 60s near the coast.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A low will remain in the vicinity of the Eastern Aleutians with
broad southerly flow aloft over the Interior. Waves of energy will
rotate through the flow and will support showers and
thunderstorms, but otherwise near normal temps for most locations
in the Interior. Late week there is a signal for easterly flow
aloft to build over the Interior, warming temps and increasing
heavy rain threats at times as lows track into the Interior from
the Yukon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist conditions have infiltrated the Interior where many
locations are barely able to crack the 40% range for min RH. The
Yukon Flats is slightly drier with near 30% min RH values.
Isolated wet thunder today favors the higher Interior terrain. For
tomorrow, a strong low moving west from the Yukon Territory will
bring widely scattered wet thunderstorms which will likely also
produce periods of heavy rainfall, to much of the S Interior. The
driest region, the Yukon Flats, will likely see little
thunderstorm activity, however. Isolated wet thunderstorms will
also be possible over the W Interior and possibly even Noatak
Valley/SW Brooks Range. Sunday, a blast of strong south winds will
develop over the Interior as a low moves inland from the Gulf of
AK. AK Range winds will also reach gusts to 60 mph, but will be
above critical criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall of up to an inch will fall over the Fortymile Uplands and
possibly up to 1.5 inches in the SW Brooks Range over the next
few days. However, no flooding concerns are anticipated with minor
rises expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.

PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

&&

Ahsenmacher