Blizzard in Alaska, February 3 to 5, 2023

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
540 AM AKST Fri Feb 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A couple more upper level shortwaves will move across
the Central and Eastern Interior today and Saturday bringing some
light snow or flurries to the area under cloudy skies. Snowfall up
to 2 inches expected. Wind chill is the primary concern in the
Arctic as the have fallen to around 55 below along the Northwest
and Eastern coastal areas. Some blowing snow from Point Lay south
will impact visibility. The West Coast is generally quiet except
for St Lawrence Island where winds will increase today, and a
weather front will bring some snow to the area tonight with
Blizzard conditions developing so a Blizzard Warning has been
issued.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 03/00Z solutions showing fair run to run agreement,
but this progressive pattern has all the solutions coming up with
different timing of the shortwaves moving across the area.
The current forecast database looks pretty good, so will work hard
to maintain continuity by only making minor adjustments. Will be
kicking up the probabilities of precipitation to likely or better
in the Interior as each of the shortwaves move across leaning on
the GFS timing. Winds for most of the area being handled well by
the GFS and NAM, so will use them on the mainland, and lean toward
the Canadian solution over water. Snowfall amounts will be a bit
higher than what we were seeing yesterday with the increased
probabilities. Temperatures impacted a bit by the southwest flow
and periods of snow, so will make some minor adjustments to warm
them up a bit south of the Yukon River.

Aloft...A 542 dam high remains high in the Siberian Arctic with
ridging extending south over Chukotka and southeast over the
Beaufort Sea. A 505 dam low that dropped out of the Canadian
Archipelago has backed to the southwest over Point Lay this
morning. Troughing extends southwest over the Bering Strait to a
506 dam low 100 nm southwest of St Matthew Island. A shortwave
associated with the low near St Matthew Island extends east over
Hooper Bay to Koliganek, then south, while another shortwave
extends southeast over Akutan. This afternoon the low over Point
Lay will move across the Chukchi Sea, while ridging will push in
behind it over the Arctic Coast as weak troughing remains over the
plains. The low near St Matthew will remain in place as the
shortwave moves to lie over St Lawrence Island to Unalakleet to
Anchorage while the transitory ridge will lie over Yakutat to
Fairbanks to Selawik to the Bering Strait. The second shortwave
will move to lie from the low over Cape Newenham to Chignik and
southeast. Southwest flow will persist south of the Brooks Range.
Saturday morning The shortwave will move to lie over the Bering
Strait to Tanana to Chicken, while another transitory branch of
the ridge will lie over Yakutat to McGrath to Nome. The second
shortwave will lie from the low that is still near St Matthew
Island over Emmonak to Aniak to Afognak Island. Weak troughing
will persist over the Arctic Coast as another shortwave moves
south across the Beaufort Sea. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm is
generally south of the Alaska Range and the Seward Peninsula
through Sunday. A couple cold pools with temperatures around -20C
have developed over the Eastern Brooks Range and the Upper Yukon
Flats.

Surface...The high in the Arctic is 500 nm north of Wrangel
Island as high pressure continues to push south over the Chukchi
Sea, the Arctic Coast, south across the Middle Yukon Valley,
southeast across the Beaufort Sea, and south across the Middle
Yukon Valley. Broad low pressure remains across the state with
weak leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range, and inverted
troughs over the West Coast, and the Central and Eastern Interior.
The troughing will continue over the West Coast through the
weekend, while the troughing over the Interior will weaken. A
weather front associated with a low near St Matthew Island has
swung around to the Lower Yukon Delta and will continue to swing
north into Norton Sound and over St Lawrence Island later today.
The high pressure pushing south across the Middle Yukon Valley
will slide east and pull back to the north over the Upper Yukon
Flats today. Weak inverted trough continues over the Southern
Interior as a 998 mb low remains near Whittier. Saturday shows
little change overall in the Interior as more snow moves across
the Southern Interior. The front on the West Coast will stall
along the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast and over St Lawrence
Island. High pressure Chukotka will weak some and winds on St
Lawrence Island will diminish some.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds on the northwest
coast and in the Brooks Range, with mainly clear skies east of
Utqiagvik. Wind chill to 55 below east of Utqiagvik, and around
Point LAy today. Blowing snow will also impact the Point Lay area
at times. Winds along the coast northeast to east at 15 to 30
mph, with strongest winds on the northwest coast, while winds in
the plains and the Brooks Range will be variable to 10 mph. High
temperatures today and Saturday will range from around 20 below to
around 40 below. Low temperatures tonight will range from around
20 below to the mid 40s below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Most of the activity will be on
St Lawrence Island and in the Bering Strait as a weather front is
pushing north into the area. Blizzard conditions developing at
Gambell around midnight tonight will continue into Saturday
afternoon as the winds increase to gusting around 50 mph, and
blowing snow off the ice combines with falling snow to reduce
visibility to near zero at times. Snow in the Lower Yukon Delta
will spread to the Southern Seward Peninsula Coast as the front
moves north. Snowfall will generally be less than 2 inches. From
the Seward Peninsula north a mix of clouds through Saturday. Winds
for the remainder of the area generally less than 15 mph with
some local gusts along the coast to 25 mph. High temperatures
today in the single digits below and below inland to around 20
above in the Lower Yukon Delta. Saturday highs range from around
5 below to around 25 above in the Lower Yukon Delta. St Lawrence
Island temperatures will fall significantly with highs 5 below to
5 above the next couple days. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the teens below to around 15 above in the Lower Yukon Delta.
Lows on St Lawrence Island near 10 below.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow, mainly from the Yukon River
south, will taper to flurries this morning with another round of
snow this evening. Snowfall up to 3 inches today. Winds variable
to 10 mph. High temperatures today and Saturday will range from
around 15 below at Arctic Village to the teens above in the
Alaska Range. Around Fairbanks highs today and Saturday range
from 5 to 10 above. Low temperatures tonight will range from
around 25 below at Arctic Village to the single digits above in
the Alaska Range. Fairbanks area lows will range from zero to 10
below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A weather front will move
north across the Interior to the Brooks Range, and a low
associated with the front, Monday spreading a couple inches of
snow across the area. Another low will follow moving into the
Kuskokwim basin, then north into the Middle Yukon Valley with more
snow Wednesday and Thursday. In the Arctic a front will drop down
across the Beaufort Sea to the Eastern Arctic Coast bringing some
clouds and snow to the area as it dissipates. High pressure will
push back southeast across the area behind the front.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-204.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ225.
     Gale Warning for PKZ230.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

SDB FEB 23