Blizzard in Alaska, February 24, 2023

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
206 PM AKST Thu Feb 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy snow moved into the Interior this morning while conditions
continue to improve on the West Coast south of the Seward
Peninsula and southern portions of the Western Interior. Snow,
blowing snow, strong winds and spotty freezing rain continues
along the West Coast north of the Seward Peninsula, the Brooks
Range and on the North Slope

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.DISCUSSION...

Models...
The 23/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and 12z upper air observations as well as verifying well
against the 18z surface analysis. Model spread in the short range
both between model families and from run to run remains minimal
while significant spread exists both between model families and
from run to run in the mid range and especially in the extended
range. Model spread on the track and strength of a strong storm
expected to develop and push into the Bering Sea on Tuesday range
from a sub 950 mb low moving into the Gulf of Anadyr to a 965 mb
low moving along the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol Bay on
Wednesday. We will continue to monitor the track and strength of
this system.

Upper air and Analysis...
At 500 mb a high amplitude ridge remains over the Northeast Gulf
of Alaska and the the Yukon while a 495 dam low near Wrangel
Island anchors a long wave trough over Eastern Siberia and the
Western Bering Sea. The ridge will continue to flatten and bring
more zonal flow over Northern Alaska with weak short waves moving
from southwest to northeast through the flow Friday and Saturday. A
broad ridge builds back north over the Aleutians and Southern
Bering Sunday and into the Eastern Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska
on Monday as a long weave trough digs into the Western Bering Sea.
This trough deepens and digs south and east on Tuesday as the
Ridge builds and moves over Eastern Alaska and the Yukon.

On the surface a 973 mb low near Wrangle Island continue to weaken
and sweep a strong front eastward over the North Slope and
Interior Alaska with heavy snow ongoing over much of the Central
Interior ans well as the south facing slopes of the Brooks Range
as well as the Alaksa Range. Gusty winds continue along the Capes
along the West Coast, the Highway Summits in the Interior, the
Alaska Range Passes as well as the Brooks Range and adjacent
plains. The low near Wrangel Island will weaken and drift slowly
south and east as the front and attending heavy snow weakens and
pushes east into Canada and Beaufort Sea on Friday. This will
bring and end to the heavy snow in favor of snow showers over much
of Northern Alaska into Friday. A series of weak systems will move
over the West Coast and Interior into the weekend bringing periods
of clouds and light snow or flurries.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blowing snow with near blizzard
conditions this morning improved this afternoon as winds
diminished slightly, however winds will increase again tonight
over the Arctic Coast with reduced visibility in blowing snow
expected to reach near blizzard conditions again especially to the
west of Utqiagvik where a Blizzard Warning remains in effect.
Strong southerly winds over the Brooks Range and adjacent plains
continue to produce low visibilities in blowing snow. A Winter
Weather Advisory for blowing snow continues for these areas. Low
temperatures tonight will be mainly in the single digits above.
High temperatures on Friday will cool into the single digits above
to teens above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Conditions continue to improve
especially south of the Seward Peninsula and southern portions of
the Western Interior as the heavy snow has moved east into the
Central Interior, but blizzard and near blizzard conditions will
continue this evening and tonight north of the Seward Peninsula as
wind increase on the back side of the low exiting to the north.
Cloudy conditions will prevail with snow showers or periods of
light snow through the weekend. Low temperatures tonight will
range from single digits above to near 20 above. High temperatures
on Friday will cool into the teens and 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior...After a slow start to the snow this
morning the snow fell heavy by late morning and dropped between 4
and 6 inches of snow by early this afternoon. Steady snow will
transition to snow showers this evening and continue into Friday.
Southwest flow will produce cloudy conditions and periods of snow
through most of the weekend. Gusty winds on the summits will
continue to produce some blowing and drifting snow and may impact
travel. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 10 below
at Arctic Village, to single digits above in the Upper Yukon
Flats, to mid teens above in Fairbanks, and around 20 above in the
Alaska Range. High temperatures will cool Friday with highs
around 5 above at Arctic Village to around 30 above in the Alaska
Range. Fairbanks area highs Friday will be in the upper 20s above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...
Elevated Water Along the Coast will continue through Friday
Morning. Strong westerly winds are resulting in elevated water
levels from the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait. This has caused
water to rise up through cracks in the sea ice and push water on
top of the ice in some areas. Some coastal trails on the ice or
near the shore could become inundated with water. The highest
water levels are expected this afternoon and tonight. Communities
along the Norton Sound coast from Golovin to Unalakleet will see
the most significant impacts to the sea ice. Residents living
along the coast are encouraged to monitor current conditions
before venturing out on the sea ice.

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.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ201.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ202.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-217-218-220-222-225.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ219-221-227.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-204-206-226.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-209.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ200.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201-225.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210-220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ215.
     Gale Warning for PKZ230.
     Gale Warning for PKZ235-240.
     Gale Warning for PKZ245.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1138 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     SNOW             3 NNW SALCHA            64.52N 146.99W
02/23/2023  E2.9 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EVENT SNOW TOTAL.

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