High Wind in Alaska, August 31, 2023

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
117 PM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Former Typhoon Damrey is moving ashore and into the W Interior
this afternoon. Strong south winds are already occurring through
the AK Range passes. Tomorrow, wind and rain will spread over most
of the Interior, along with cool temps through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 518 arctic low centered just west of Wrangel Island.
There is a 532 dam mobile powerful low which are the remnants of
Typhoon Damrey, moving into SW AK from Bristol Bay. There is a
very strong 597 dam NE Pacific ridge south of the Gulf of AK. The
surface low associated with the tropical remnants is analyzed
around 979 mb.

Model Discussion...
Models are in excellent agreement with no issues. Favored model
was the NAM.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High winds through the AK Range passes continue to 40-70 mph then
diminish through this evening. Tomorrow, blustery and showery over
most of the Interior as a cool front shifts east. Expecting
widespread gusts to near 30 mph with higher elevation terrain over
the Interior seeing gusts to 40 mph. Temps struggle to the mid 50s
tomorrow, then low 50s for Saturday. Things do dry out the second
half of Saturday with some cold low temps (below freezing in cold
spots like Eagle, Chicken, etc.) over the E Interior where it
will likely be partly clear overnight. Yet another front will
bring more rain to the Central Interior and AK Range on Saturday
and Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong low is moving inland and has now reached the YK Delta and
will quickly move northward through tonight. Rain and wind will
accompany the low, and it will be reinforced Friday with an arctic
trough moving into West Coast with a strong push of west winds.
This will also result in some elevated surf conditions (See
special weather statement). Expect gale force gusts across most
coastal locations into Friday night.

A second Bering low moves in on Friday night and Saturday bringing
more wind and rain with strong south to southeast winds becoming
NW winds as the low moves inland Saturday night and Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A trough has moved offshore and brought a brief reprieve from
stratus and fog. More onshore northeast winds develop late
tonight with a return to fog and stratus. A warm front will move
over the E Brooks Range tonight with rain, then a strong low forms
near Banks Island Fri night and Sat with increased westerly winds
over the E Arctic. Yet another front will bring in more rain to
the NW Arctic and W Brooks Range Sunday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Sunday night and Monday a weakening Bering front moves inland and
will bring chances of rain as it shifts east, although the best
chances will be farther west. That front weakens then another
front moves into the West Coast late Monday and shifts east
through Thursday, bringing more rain to the Mainland. This trough
will tap some arctic air and temps drop for the latter half of the
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...More elevated surf
conditions possible Sunday as northwest winds develop behind a low
moving inland Sunday into Sunday night. Currently this may impact
the N Seward Peninsula and YK Delta more given the wind flow
directions. For the elevated surf Sat and Sat night, see Special
Weather Statement.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Chinook winds near the AK Range continue into this evening 40-70
mph then gradually diminish, but tomorrow, widespread southwest
winds develop gusting to near 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph
over higher terrain over the Interior. It will also be cold and
rainy.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
More rain will move into the Interior with half to three quarters
of an inch likely by Sat night over the Upper Chena Basin, and 1.0
to 1.5 inches for the Alaska Range, with a general half inch or
less for the lower elevation Interior valleys. The W Brooks Range
will see up to 0.75 inches as well. The mainstem rivers draining
the Brooks Range have either crested or are falling now, so they
will likely remain high but not at bankfull. For the Tanana River,
minor flooding is occurring around Rosie Creek in Fairbanks, and
it has pushed into minor flood stage at Nenana and will continue
to rise into minor flood stage and will likely be at bankfull as it
moves downstream. Expect rises to occur on rivers and streams
draining the Upper Chena Basin as well as the Tanana- Yukon
Uplands, as well, but no flooding.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ219.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ220.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ223.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ225.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856-857.
     Flood Advisory for AKZ222-223

Ahsenmacher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
130 PM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2023

AKZ207-209-211>214-020130-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Kotzebue,
Selawik, Noorvik, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Unalakleet,
Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Hooper Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
130 PM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...Elevated Surf Friday and Friday Night...

Elevated surf is expected to develop along the West Coast Friday
and Friday night with values of 1 to 3 feet above MHHW (the normal
high tide). Westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
will push large waves up the beach. The wave action may cause
minor erosion. Residents with items on the beach should move them
inland to prevent them from washing away.