High Wind in Alaska, April 9, 2023

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
533 AM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ Active weather remains today
as the front from a low in the central gulf has mostly stalled
over the panhandle. Most of the wind has died down from last night
with mostly 15 to 25 kt winds in most areas at the moment
(Northern gulf waters are the exception where gale force winds
have been observed this morning). As for precip rain is the
general rule with temps remaining in the upper 30s or higher
overnight. Some lightning was observed overnight just west of
Prince of Wales Island and Baranof Island overnight in the NE part
of the dry slot. Any more lightning will likely stay offshore in
the northeast gulf for this morning only, before favorable
convective conditions diminish.

Attention has now turned to the the two short waves that will be
traveling through the southern panhandle today. The main forecast
changes were with these features. The first short wave is
developing along the front in the left exit region of a 100 kt 500
mb jet streak. As of 5 am it is located SW of Haida Gwaii with a
good baroclinic leaf showing up on satellite imagery. It is
expected to travel north over western Prince of Wales Island this
morning. Short wave number two is a piece of the central gulf low
that got cut off from the main circulation and will get advected E
and then NE across the central panhandle this afternoon and
evening. Each of these features will bring another period of rain
and some gusty winds as they move through. Short wave number two
in particular has some gale force W winds on the south side of it
that are expected to impact western Prince of Wales Island, Kuiu
Island and southern Baranof Island this evening. Confidence is
somewhat uncertain. Guidance is rather confident on the second
short wave being somewhere in the southern gulf, but is at odds on
where exactly it will track into the panhandle at, which will
affect where the higher winds end up being observed. Possibilities
range from as far north as Baranof Island (where Cape Decision
area gets the higher winds) to as far south as Dixon Entrance
(where the max winds are too far south to affect the panhandle). A
consensus of a few models has it coming in somewhere near
southern Baranof with winds affecting Kuiu and Prince of Wales
Island, so winds have been raised accordingly for the southeast
gulf and southern panhandle.

Into tonight, the weather settles down with rain showers
remaining for most of the area. An area of colder air is expected
to move in from the west tonight that could start to mix or change
that rain over the snow however by late tonight. Temperatures
aloft are expected to cool down to -8 to -9C at 850 mb which
should be enough to get at least a mix of snow in many areas late
Sun night. Surface temperatures will still be in the low to upper
30s however, so while snow may be observed falling, little in the
way of accumulation is expected.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday night/...As the low
continues to weaken and move out of the area on Monday, winds will
continue to decrease across the area. Most places along the outer
coast will still see winds around 20 kts before winds out there slow
as well. After that, a ridge will start to build into the area for
Tuesday and into early Wednesday bringing quiet weather to the area.
This will be short lived as another low forming near Cook Inlet will
enter the gulf of Alaska and remain offshore for the rest of the
week. This will bring back the rain to the area during the day on
Wednesday. Some places could see a mix of rain and snow with
temperatures allowing for some mixing. No snow accumulations are
expect with this mix though. Areas that are most likely to see
accumulating snow will be the Haines and Klondike Highways.

For the end of the week, the pattern looks to remain similar to
the middle of the week as the low hangs around the gulf. This will
bring more precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures to
the area for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...As the current weather front tracks northward through
the day LLWS for the central and northern areas will begin to
diminish. Showers dissipate somewhat with surface winds dropping
and some improvement to ceilings and visibility. Next short waves
move over the southern panhandle where they will get another
round of increased surface winds and LLWS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ327.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ328.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ035-036-641-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-034-053-642>644.

&&

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...PRB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1013 AM AKDT SUN APR 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     SNOW             WHITE PASS              59.63N 135.16W
04/09/2023  M6.0 INCH        SKAGWAY            AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            KLONDIKE HIGHWAY REPORT NOTED 3 TO 6 INCHES
            OF SNOW BETWEEN MILEPOST 12 TO THE BORDER.

&&

NF