NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 3:52 AM MST, 5 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 16, 3:52 AM MST, 5 hours 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
452 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022
Today will be an unusually mild late-spring day, featuring strong
ridging aloft, temperatures about 15 degrees above normal, as
well as scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms supported by
a subtle shortwave moving through the ridge. Despite relatively
light large scale winds, temperature-dew point spreads will be
large (in the 40 to 50 degree range); therefore, precipitation
falling into the low levels is likely to evaporate and cool the
surrounding air, leading to strong sinking motion and gusts when
hitting the ground, likely in the 45 to 55 mph range in the
immediate vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. A few gusts could
be higher, especially across Sweetwater County where dew points
could be even lower. MUCAPE will be on the order of 300 to 600
J/kg for portions of the area, yet strong thunderstorms are
unlikely due to limited shear for most of the region. Yellowstone
could be the exception, with enough shear aloft to support a few
stronger cells. Afternoon convection looks to develop around 1 PM
MDT, moves eastward throughout the day, eventually decreasing in
intensity and coverage around sunset.
Fire danger will also be elevated this afternoon and evening,
given low RHs combined with these gusty erratic winds from showers
(see the Fire Weather section for more details).
After sunset, cooler air will push southward for basins east of
the Divide. Expect a shift to northerly winds in the Bighorn and
Powder River Basin between sunset and 3 AM Tuesday. As this
frontal feature moves through, brief gusts of 40 to 50 mph are
likely.
Despite cold air advection overnight, Tuesday remains near to
slightly above normal temperature-wise. Another weak vorticity
maxima will spark additional scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The slightly cooler temperatures will suppress fire danger
somewhat, but southwest and south central Wyoming basins remain
fairly dry, with RHs in the upper teens to low 20 percent range.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022
Convection on Tuesday will slowly be ending during the evening
hours with all areas dry by later Tuesday night. Flat ridging then
moves across the state on Wednesday and brings a warm and dry
day. However, flat ridging and a fast moving pattern usually means
windy conditions and Wednesday will be no exception. Mid level
winds do not look very strong and the best jet energy remains to
the west so high winds are not expected. The warm temperatures,
windy conditions and low humidity will likely bring elevated fire
weather to portions of the area for Wednesday afternoon though.
A long wave trough then will move into the northern Rockies with
two main pieces of energy and cold fronts with it. The first will
begin to move into northern Wyoming later Wednesday night and into
Thursday. During the day, at this point it appears the best jet
dynamics will remain over northern Wyoming so the best chance of
showers and embedded thunderstorms will be there. Further south,
with the area in the right front quadrant of a potent 130 knot jet
streak, it will be another windy day, especially in areas favored
by northwest flow and cold advection like northern Johnson
County, the Bighorn Basin and possibly the Wind River Basin.
There is some uncertainty in timing though with the GFS about 6 to
12 hours faster than the European model. For now, we made few
changes to continuity. Cooler air then moves in behind the front
Thursday night before the second push arrives Friday. This one
appears to have a better chance of more widespread showers. And
with the cooler air in place, the chance of some mountain snow as
well. As was stated by the previous shift, the main road problems
would be at night as the strong mid May sun should melt any snow
of roads during the day. Temperatures will average 20 degrees
below normal across much of the area on this day.
The deeper moisture will move away Saturday so showers should
become much less numerous. However, with cyclonic curvature
remaining over the area, lower elevation rain showers and higher
elevation snow showers will continue to be around to some degree,
mainly across northern Wyoming. The forecast then becomes more
uncertain on Sunday with the arrival of the next system. The GFS,
as usual, is faster with returning steadier precipitation to the
west Sunday afternoon and spreading southward on Sunday night.
Meanwhile, the European is much slower, keeping all areas dry
through most of Sunday night and southern Wyoming dry through
Monday as well. For now, we compromised and split the difference
before there is more model agreement.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z Issuance
All terminals to be mainly VFR through the period. A shortwave
Monday afternoon generates showers and isolated thunderstorms,
initially over the northern and central mountains. The primary
hazard will be gusty outflow wind. Brief MVFR vsby/cig may occur
with any showers if they pass over a terminal. KCOD and KWRL may
have the best chance for a thunderstorm late in the day, although
outflow wind may reach several basin terminals. Except for the
possible strong outflow wind, winds will be mainly light at all
terminals through the period. Some shower activity should increase
across the southwest terminals around 10Z Tuesday.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 423 AM MDT Mon May 16 2022
Temperatures will run about 15 degrees above normal today. The
warm temperatures combined with a relatively dry air mass
(especially in the southwest and south central portion of the
state where afternoon RHs range from 10 to 20 percent) will lead
to elevated fire danger. Sustained winds will not be overly strong
this afternoon, with westerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph. However,
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are are likely
to be accompanied by strong erratic outflow winds, gusting 45 to
55 mph in the vicinity of showers. Have issued a Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement for the lower elevations of Lincoln, Sublette,
and Sweetwater counties, in effect for this afternoon and evening
to cover this threat.
Gusty north winds associated with a cold front will push southward
east of the Divide after sunset through the early AM hours
Tuesday. This feature will likely bring brief gusts of 40 to 50
mph to basins.
Tuesday will feature slightly higher RHs and continued chances
for showers and Tstorms. Wednesday RHs drop and winds increase as
the ridge breaks down, leading to another day of elevated fire
weather danger. A larger system with strong winds and widespread
precipitation is forecast for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...Hattings
AVIATION...Hattings / Murrell
FIRE WEATHER...VandenBoogart