Damaging Wind in Wyoming, June 28, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
246 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

The H5 ridge continues to break down this afternoon, with the
initial push of showers crossing NW WY. Morning sounding showed
plenty of dry air close to the sfc, so any thunderstorms that do
develop will have the potential for some gusty winds through this
evening. With the ridge flattened out tonight into tomorrow,
continued unsettled flow will continue to push across the state.
Some thunderstorms may continue for western WY tonight as a
result. The next cold front will sweep through in the unsettled
pattern later on Wednesday. This will keep most of the state in
the warm regime through most of the afternoon, with highs again
hitting the 80s and low 90s again. Thunderstorm activity will
build on higher elevations again during the afternoon, sliding
east through the day. The front will generally stall across
southern WY late, and will also act as a focus for thunderstorms
into Wednesday night. Any thunderstorms may again provide locally
gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Mid-level flow becomes westerly on Thursday as the ridge is
flattened by a trough passing to the north. Models currently show a
weak cold front stalling across central Wyoming. This would keep
Thursday highs a little cooler, but still around normal.
Additionally, isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely in the
afternoon and evening across southern Wyoming as a surge of
monsoonal moisture arrives. Friday will be a few degrees warmer as
700mb temperatures trend back up, with afternoon convection near and
adjacent to the mountains. Southwesterly flow then takes over for
the weekend through early next week as a trough sets up over the
West Coast. Temperatures will remain around or above normal for the
most part, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

VFR conditions continue at all sites through 18Z Wednesday. Wind
will remain light, generally at or below 12 knots through this
evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the
west this afternoon and evening. The activity will move east during
the afternoon into the evening hours. Strong outflow wind gusts over
40 knots will be possible near storms. Terminal sites may be
impacted by this activity. Isolated showers may linger after 06Z
Wednesday. Wind will begin to increase at most terminals by late
Wednesday morning.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 159 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Thunderstorm activity will continue this afternoon for northern
and western WY, and will continue into tonight out west. The
potential for lightning activity is elevated. A front moves across
the state during the day Wednesday, which will provide the
gradient for gustier west winds during the day Wednesday, with
highest gusts along the Absaroka and Wind River ranges. Sfc
moisture for the most part will remain elevated to decrease fire
weather threats, but some areas of the Big Horn Basin may see the
combination of gustier winds and humidity below 15 percent.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Straub
LONG TERM...Myers
AVIATION...Myers
FIRE WEATHER...Straub

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Riverton WY
248 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

WYZ001>020-022>030-291300-
Yellowstone National Park-Absaroka Mountains-Cody Foothills-
North Big Horn Basin-Southwest Big Horn Basin-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-Owl Creek and Bridger Mountains-
Bighorn Mountains West-Bighorn Mountains Southeast-
Northeast Johnson County-Southeast Johnson County-
Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains-Jackson Hole-
Wind River Mountains West-Wind River Mountains East-
Upper Wind River Basin-Wind River Basin-Lander Foothills-
Green Mountains and Rattlesnake Range-
Natrona County Lower Elevations-Casper Mountain-Star Valley-
Salt River and Wyoming Ranges-Upper Green River Basin Foothills-
Upper Green River Basin-South Lincoln County-
Rock Springs and Green River-Flaming Gorge-East Sweetwater County-
248 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Western and Central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will track across mainly
northern Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Strong and erratic
outflow wind to around 50 mph will be the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...A chance for afternoon thunderstorms,
mainly across the south.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions, according to standard operating procedures.