NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 17, 4:31 AM MST, 6 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 4:31 AM MST, 6 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
531 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A deep and potent trough over the West Coast will
bring with it widespread strong winds through Saturday. The
potential for microbursts exists on today, with a more pronounced
moisture surge setting up on Saturday that will shift the threat
towards thunderstorms and heavy rain potential Saturday through
Sunday morning, especially in eastern areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...Southerly flow aloft is
increasing over Utah this morning as the upstream upper low is now
centered off the CA/OR coast. Expect the winds to continue to
strengthen through the day as the low and associated mean trough
slowly moves inland and H7 flow increases to 40-55kt over Utah.
Additionally, pressure falls over northeast NV and northwest UT will
lead to a tightening of the surface pressure gradient. This will set
up a wind event over Utah, with the strongest winds (occasional
gusts over 60 mph) across the western valleys. The southerly flow
and well-mixed conditions will maintain very warm temperatures
across much of the area today.
In conjunction with the southerly flow, a plume of subtropical
moisture has quickly spread into the area, aided by a weak vort lobe
that is lifting into northern Utah currently. High-based showers are
accompanying this moisture surge, the leading edge of which will
reach the Idaho border by around 12-13z. As a result, high-based
showers or virga can be expected this morning along portions of the
Wasatch Front. A dry slot is expected to spread across western Utah
later today, confining the moisture and associated showers to the
spine of Utah and points eastward by this afternoon. The showers are
expected to produce little in the way of precipitation, but there
will be scattered microburst potential. Earlier showers have
produced moderate gusts in the 25-40 mph range, but expect
microburst winds to be stronger by this afternoon with daytime
heating and stronger mixing. Instability will remain modest as the
moisture will not be very deep today, but a few thunderstorms will
be possible, best chance across the northeastern portions of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening.
The dry slot is expected to erode as moisture increases westward
tomorrow. As a result, shower and thunderstorm potential could reach
portions of the I-15 corridor tomorrow, while continuing across the
mountains and east. Showers should in general trend a bit more
moist, with isolated heavy rain potential. However, gusty microburst
winds are still possible, especially along the western periphery
near the moisture gradient. Otherwise, the synoptic wind setup will
remain similar to today as the trough remains upstream, and Wind
Advisories may need to be extended.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...The long-term forecast period
begins with the axis of the amplified longwave trough over the
central Great Basin. There is great model agreement in this feature
moving slowly to the east and then beginning to lift out of our area
late Monday. A combination of positive vorticity advection, upper-
level jet support, and sufficient moisture across eastern UT provide
both dynamics and moisture for continuing rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms further east in our area, including the Uinta
Mountains and Western Uinta Basin. Along with these ingredients is
decent instability, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE expected. The
western portion of the forecast area, including the Wasatch and
Central Mountains, are likely too dry to see much activity other
than a few isolated showers. Eighty percent of ensemble members
suggest >0.1" of precipitation across the eastern half of UT, with
the other 20% favoring a drier solution with precipitation only
across the eastern third of UT.
With this trough, a cold front is expected to pass through the area,
cooling temperatures to about 5-15 degrees below normal and
providing an additional source for lift. Ahead of this front,
stronger southerly winds will linger, however they are not expected
to be as strong as earlier in the weekend. Forecasted H7 winds
around 30-40kts may mix down Sunday afternoon and cause some
stronger gusts, especially across southern and western UT.
By 00z Tuesday, there is still great agreement in the positioning of
the trough axis as it moves over our forecast area and begins to
lift out. As this trough slowly lifts north, a trailing shortwave
will follow, yet with a very dry air mass settling in, there aren't
any impacts anticipated, except for maybe slightly increased cloud
cover. After this trailing shortwave, zonal flow is expected to
dominate through the rest of the long-term period, bringing
subsidence and warming temperatures to 5-10 degrees above normal by
Friday.
A low pressure system is expected to develop off of the BC coast
late next week, though its exact progression inland is uncertain.
Most (86%) of ensemble members favor a persistent ridge over our
area by the end of the week, with the minority suggesting a quicker
trough that lands on our doorstep by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...There is a 15% likelihood of periods of MVFR VIS
due to blowing dust from gusty southerly winds between 18-03z.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. Between 12-17z, isolated high-
based showers in the vicinity are possible, though dry low levels
will likely prevent any rain from reaching the surface. These
showers may cause periods of gusty, erratic winds. Around 03z, there
could be a period of low-level wind shear from speed shear after
decoupling, however confidence in impactful LLWS is low enough to
not include in the 06z TAF package.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Expect gusty winds out of the
south across the entire area beginning as early as 15z, and
decreasing around 02-03z. Areas susceptible to blowing dust may see
reductions in VIS near peak winds. Isolated high-based showers are
expected to move from south to north across central and eastern UT;
these showers may cause periods of gusty, erratic winds from
microbursts. After sunset, there is potential for much of the area
to experience low-level wind shear, however confidence is too low in
its strength at this point to include in the 06z TAF package.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture already increasing rapidly from the south
this morning will bring high-based showers to much of the eastern
half of the area today, resulting in gusty outflow winds but little
precipitation. Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms will
develop by this afternoon, with the greatest activity across
northeast Utah. Meanwhile, gusty south winds can be expected across
much of the area today, strongest across western Utah where
occasional gusts over 60 mph are expected. This will maintain hot
temperatures across the area. These winds are expected to persist
through tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will increase tomorrow,
but once again remaining mostly over the mountains and east. Storms
are expected to trend a bit wetter, but some dry thunderstorm
activity could linger. A cold front will slide into Utah on Sunday.
Some showers will continue across mainly the north on Sunday, with
gusty winds and dry conditions across the south and east which could
result in critical fire weather conditions. Thereafter, cooler and
drier conditions are expected into the early part of next week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT Saturday
for UTZ101-102-115-122.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for UTZ123.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening
for UTZ103>108-116-118>121-124-126>131.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT Saturday
for UTZ478-492-495-497.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
evening for UTZ496-498.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
UTZ482-484-489-493-494.
WY...None.
&&
Cheng/Cunningham
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php