Flooding and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, June 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
322 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022)

Tonight and Tonight:

The main focus is on the severe weather expected to impact the area
late this afternoon and evening. The main threat will move into
the west between 4 to 6 PM, then spreading east through the
evening hours. Walworth, Racine, Kenosha counties will be the
last to see the potential for strong to severe storms, if they
hold up in intensity that far to the southeast.

The hot and humid airmass in place has led to an very unstable
atmosphere across central and southern Wisconsin. The elongated
surface low and frontal boundary currently moving into western
Wisconsin will be the forcing mechanism for this afternoon and
evenings convection. With 4000+ J/kg of SBCAPE entrenched across
the area, this will support the potential for explosive updrafts
with more than enough instability to support severe storms as
this boundary moves through the area. With 40 kts of effective
bulk shear, there will also be enough deep layer shear to support
the potential for supercells initially with any initial discrete
cells. All hazards will be possible with any discrete cells early
one, including very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds.

As the boundary continues to move east, do expect the line to
grow upscale into a QLCS, with the potential for bowing segments,
mesovorts, and a few embedded supercells. All hazards will remain
possible, including the potential for pockets of wind-driven
hail and tornadoes. With 0-3 km CAPE increasing this afternoon
and 0-3 km bulk shear increasing to around 30 knots, any segments
of the line that surge to the east-northeast may pose a brief
tornado threat.

Heavy rain will occur with any thunderstorm activity. Will need
to keep an eye on the southeast, where storms may train a bit
longer later this evening, but the widespread flash flood threat
looks low at this time. Typical flood prone areas may see some
nuisance flooding develop due to higher rainfall rates.

The boundary will clear the area late this evening and
thunderstorm chances will come to an end. With light winds
overnight, will need to monitor the potential for fog overnight
where heavier rain occurs.

Anderson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022)

Thursday through Wednesday:

Thursday will be less humid, but still warm with temperatures in
the 80s. Heat indices will be much less with lower dewpoints
moving in behind the front. Southwest to west winds could gust
upwards of 40 to 45 mph in spots, especially central Wisconsin so
we will need to monitor the potential need for a wind advisory.

Otherwise, the rest of the week and weekend look to be cooler with
drier conditions as high pressure dominants. Next week the weather
could turn more active as the heat and humidity return to the
region.

Anderson

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022)

Gusty south to southwest winds are expected into this evening,
ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to
move through this evening, bringing the potential for severe
storms mainly impacting KMSN/KJVL between 23-01Z, KSBM between
00-02Z, KUES/KENW/KMKE between 01-04Z. Large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes will be possible, with the highest threat
back towards KMSN/KJVL/KSBM. Ceilings may fall into the MVFR
category as storms move through, and visibilities may fall down to
1 SM or less given the very heavy rain expected with this
activity. As the front moves through this evening into tonight,
winds will become westerly behind the front tonight, then become
southwest tomorrow.

Anderson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022)

Opted to keep the dense fog advisory in place for the northern half
of Lake Michigan, given the humid airmass lifting into the area this
evening. After the front/surface low passes over Lake Michigan
tonight, any lingering fog should dissipate.

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will form along and ahead of
the cold front and move through the region tonight. Large hail,
damaging winds and waterspouts are possible. A period of gusty
southwest winds is expected on Thursday, before shifting west
Thursday night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
nearshore waters for Thursday, as gusts up to 30 knots are
expected. Some gusts near the shoreline may approach gale force,
and this will need monitoring in later forecasts.

High pressure should move southeast through the Great Lakes
region this weekend, bringing somewhat lighter winds.

Wood/Anderson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-
     WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
     WIZ072 until 8 PM Wednesday.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 until 7 AM Thursday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
     Thursday to 7 PM Thursday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-161930-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the area until 8
PM CDT this evening, for heat index values up to 103 degrees.

Severe storms along and ahead of a cold front are expected to
move eastward through the area later this afternoon and evening,
before exiting to the east around midnight. Tornadoes, large hail
to 2 inches or greater in diameter, and damaging winds above 70
MPH are all possible. Stay weather aware this afternoon and
evening!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There are slight chances for thunderstorms early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed later this afternoon and
evening.

LMZ643>646-161930-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

South to southwest winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels
this afternoon.

Severe storms along and ahead of a cold front are expected to
move eastward through the nearshore waters this evening, before
exiting to the east around midnight. Waterspouts, large hail to 1
inch or greater in diameter, and damaging winds above 50 knots
are all possible. Stay weather aware this evening.

Patchy dense fog is possible at times into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Gusty southwest to west winds on Thursday will reach Small Craft
Advisory levels near the shoreline. A few gale force gusts are
possible.

There are slight chances for thunderstorms early next week.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-161930-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Dense Fog Advisory continues for the northern half of the open
waters of Lake Michigan through tonight. Patchy dense fog may
occur to the south as well.

Gusty south to southwest winds to 30 knots may occur this
afternoon over northern portions of the lake.

Severe storms along and ahead of a cold front are expected to
move eastward through the open waters this evening and into the
overnight hours. Waterspouts, large hail to 1 inch or greater in
diameter, and damaging winds above 50 knots are all possible. Stay
weather aware tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Gusty southwest to west winds to 30 knots may occur Thursday over
northern portions of the lake.

There are slight chances for thunderstorms early next week.

www.weather.gov/mkx