An upper disturbance moving through moist and unstable air produced isolated severe thunderstorms on the morning of the 15th over portions of west and south central Upper Michigan.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
An upper disturbance moving through moist and unstable air produced isolated severe thunderstorms on the morning of the 15th over portions of west and south central Upper Michigan.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 15, 4:04 AM CST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 604 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Early this morning) Issued at 310 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 As the center of warm air aloft begins to move away early this AM, some light rain showers have developed across mainly the central and eastern CWA (capping of the boundary layer has kept thunderstorms from developing). Expect the light isolated rain shower activity to continue through the morning hours. Due to clouds moving in and the anomalously warm air aloft, expect most of the area to stay at or above 60F for the low this morning. CAMs show that some more shower (and maybe some thunderstorm) activity could develop over the far west after sunrise this morning, as a cold front begins to push into the area from the west. .LONG TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 423 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 ...Severe storms expected today... There look to be two rounds in two areas: the first occurring early in the day in the west, followed by the second occurring this afternoon into this evening. Breaking down the ingredients: Instability/CAPE: At least 1000 to 1500 J/kg should be widely available today, with much higher pockets, particularly in the central. The NAM is one of the more bullish CAPE generators, and if it is to come to fruition, some locations could have 3000+ J/kg to work with. That said, am not confident in the NAM's assessment but does seem rather reasonable for an average of about 1500 J/kg or so available for much of the areas of concern today. These values are already along the WI border per the latest SPC RAP mesoanalysis and there's no reason for it to disappear until the well-advertised frontal boundary traverses through later. The SB aspect of it will not be an issue today. Lapse rates: LL LRs will steadily increase as the day progresses, averaging around 6-7 C/km by this afternoon with ML LRs around the same values. Shear: With effective bulk shear already exceeding 35 knots in the western U.P. early this morning, this will only be on the rise throughout the course of the day, with general model consensus of at least 40 to around 50 kts. of 0-6km shear across much of the U.P. by 18z. By 00z, 70+ kts. will be streaming into the western U.P. with this axis moving east into the central U.P. by around 03z. 0-3km shear will also be on the increase throughout the day from west to central then east tonight, looking to average around 40 kts. but much higher pockets of 50+ kts. will be around. There is less model consensus on the 0-1km layer but 20 to 30 kts. by 00z look reasonable, with again, higher pockets possible. Helicity: Similar to the shear parameters, SRH in the 0-3km and 0-1km layers will also be on the increase throughout the day. The western into central portions of the U.P. are likely to see the highest values of at least 200 m2/s2 within the 0-3km layer. Again, much higher pockets on the order of 300 to 400 m2/s2 are appearing in models, with 100+ m2/s2 looking likely in the 0-1km layer by this afternoon for at least the central portions of the U.P., pockets of 200+ m2/s2 rather possible. In addition to the above ingredients, LCL heights are currently analyzed around 1000 to 1500m per the latest SPC RAP mesoanalysis with not much deviation from this looking at some model soundings. Abundant moisture has already made its foothold in Upper Michigan, PWATs of around 1.5 to 2" already around the forecast area and remaining so until the fropa. Tying all of this together and everything is (nearly) in place for significant weather to occur today, of the severe variety. So what's the potential caveat? How this morning's convection pans out. It appears that what occurs this morning shouldn't deter from what happens this afternoon/evening, but appearances can be deceiving. The activity marching up from WI early this morning already looks like it may end up a bit further to the east than some models suggested, which could leave little room for recovery. But, with the pieces laid out above, this may not matter. For one, max heating in the mid- levels has already occurred. Additionally, turning is very likely to occur with storms (see hodographs), which leaves the tornadic threat on the table. All together, the thinking is the following: the morning convection will have the potential to be strong to severe. The afternoon into evening convection has even more potential to be severe, particularly for the Dickinson to Menominee counties and surrounding areas, including Iron, the southern half of Marquette, and Delta counties. Elsewhere could also experience strong to severe storms but the areas just mentioned have the ingredients lining up the most for the highest likelihood, assuming the morning convection doesn't deter it. It'd be remiss to not discuss the heavy rain threat. Any storms will have the potential to contain heavy rain considering the copious amounts of moisture available, and this means any storm in the U.P., not just in the discussed county areas. Once the front moves through tonight, expect rapidly improving conditions. As the parent low marches across northern Ontario tomorrow, a trailing area of precip could emerge in the eastern portions of the U.P. and have included mentionable PoPs as a result. Although clearing is otherwise expected tomorrow, gradient-driven winds will be gusty tomorrow, with 40 mph SWrly to Wrly gusts possible, particularly in the Keweenaw. Benign weather then takes over Friday into the first half of the weekend courtesy of high pressure. For the latter half of the weekend into next week, the U.P. looks to return to being on the periphery of mid- to upper-level ridging with multiple chances of precip returning. After a period of seasonable temps to end this week into the early weekend, warmer temps emerge next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1210 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 IMPACTS: - LLWS threat at KCMX and KSAW early in TAF period - LLWS threat at KSAW again this evening - MVFR fog early this morning and again this afternoon at all TAF sites - Gradual wind shift from southeast to southwest and finally west throughout TAF period - Thunderstorm threat at KSAW this afternoon/evening Discussion: MVFR will become the predominant flight category early this morning at all TAF sites as fog forms. Also, expect a LLWS threat into tonight at KCMX and SAW as a LLJ passes over the area. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites this afternoon and evening with the best threat for thunder at KSAW. For now, will only carry mention of thunder at KSAW where confidence is higher on timing and location. An additional LLWS threat is expected at KSAW this evening with a 45 kt LLJ. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 549 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 Thunderstorms are expected today with the potential for storms to become strong to severe. Within these storms, gusty winds and hail will be possible, with heavy rain likely, which could cause visby reductions. A waterspout cannot be ruled out. For tomorrow, breezy SWrly to Wrly winds are expected with gusts approaching gale-force. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not gales will be realized at the surface of the water, but more possible for higher platforms, particularly in the central portions of the lake. Wind gusts will slacken as Thursday night progresses into Friday, but remain in the 20 to 30 knot range. Winds of 25 knots or less look to prevail over the weekend into next week. Mariners could run into pockets of fog today and should be aware of the potential, although looks to decrease from west to east as the day goes on due to a frontal passage. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ248-250. && SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...lg AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...lg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 520 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-160930- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 520 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 /420 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Severe thunderstorms likely; large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain are the primary severe weather hazards. Tornadoes are also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Windy conditions are expected across the area Thursday, with the gusts up to 40 mph possible over the Keweenaw Peninsula. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or Twitter. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-160930- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 520 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 /420 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. Waterspouts are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Gale force gusts up to 35 knots are possilbe north of the Keweenaw Peninsula late Thursday morning until early Thursday evening. See the latest Open Lakes Forecast for more details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or Twitter. LMZ221-248-250-160930- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 520 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. Waterspouts are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Gale force gusts are possible near the lakeshore Thursday. See the latest Nearshore Marine Forecast for more details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or Twitter. TAP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
557 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
MIZ010-151130-
Iron MI-
557 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Iron County
through 630 AM CDT...
At 556 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Tipler, or 11 miles southwest
of Iron River, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Landspouts, winds in excess of 40 mph, and nickel size
hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Stambaugh around 610 AM CDT.
Iron River around 615 AM CDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Amasa.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4602 8869 4602 8881 4606 8890 4638 8868
4619 8826 4599 8848 4602 8851 4601 8859
4602 8860 4599 8862 4599 8866
TIME...MOT...LOC 1056Z 211DEG 38KT 4595 8875
LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TAPThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:02 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two large diameter spruce trees were snapped and uprooted in Caspian. This was a delayed report via social media. There was also a tree reported down over Youngs Avenue which was quickly removed by city officials.
There was a report of a swath of 20 trees knocked down laying on top of each other on someone's property. Power lines were also reported down with the tops of some trees sheared off. This was a delayed report and the time of the event was estimated from radar.
There was a public report of tree damage near Camp Gibbs Road. Time of the report was estimated from radar.
Escanaba Public Safety Dispatch reported a damaged tree down on a power line near the Michigan DNR station in Escanaba.
There was a public report of a poplar tree snapped halfway up the tree on the bluff in Gladstone. Another tree was snapped near the base of the trunk.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, June 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1028145, 1028175, 1028162, 1028127, 1028131.