Thunderstorms tracked east along a warm front through central and east-central Wisconsin during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday (7/23). The strongest storms produced wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Thunderstorms tracked east along a warm front through central and east-central Wisconsin during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday (7/23). The strongest storms produced wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. The storms also produced a seiche on Lake Winnebago as the storms tracked over the lake.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 2:18 PM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Storms have been moving E/SE across southern Minnesota this afternoon. Overall, complex is moving east, but newest development is on the southern end, near the warm front/moisture/instability gradient. A strip of pwats of 1.5 to 2.0 inches from southern MN, into northeast IA, southwest WI, and northern IL. MLCAPEs are also highest here. Expect the leading line of convection to continue tracking along this gradient, but there is still some uncertainly on how much farther north it will move. Additionally, more development has started behind the main storms and has started to fill in. This also warrants watching, as the severe threat may be not as high, but could lead to training rain/storms and potential flooding concerns later this evening and overnight. Late afternoon and evening...As convection tracks east and warm front edges northward expect thunderstorms to enter central WI (southwest part of the GRB forecast area) over the next hour, and then continue eastward along the southern tier or two of counties into the evening. The threat is greatest south of Hwy 10 for severe storms, with damaging winds the main threat. A few tornadoes, hail, and heavy rains are also possible. Farther north, still expecting rain and thunder/lightning but the threat for severe thunderstorms is lower. Late evening and overnight...Meso models, particularly the HRRR, have a fairly good sense of the current convection. Following their trends eastward, the main complex moves east of the area and over Lake Michigan by 01/02Z. Behind this, the trend has been increasing to see additional development of rain and thunderstorms. Given high pwats there could be heavy rains among this, with possible training and flooding concern, once again focused south of Hwy 10. This would likely be a very localized concern depending on where individual cells setup, but localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches or more are possible. There are a few features that will lead to continued larger scale forcing, including entrance region of upper jet, and a developing LL jet feeding additional moisture into WI ahead of the sfc cold front through the night. Instability will likely have waned by this time due to the earlier convection and loss of daytime heating, so expect heavy rain/flooding to be the main threat overnight. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows mainly in the 60s. Sunday...Some lingering showers are possible a little after sunrise, but dry weather is expected for the most part followed by clearing skies in the afternoon. The exception is across northern WI where a shortwave brushing across the area in the afternoon could generate isolated afternoon showers. Some of the meso models also show this development. Added very low PoPs across the north to account for this. Otherwise, the rest of the area will be dry. Highs will be closer to normal ranging from the low 70s in the north to around 80 degrees in the Fox Valley. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 High pressure should bring dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures for the beginning of the work week. A cold front and associated short-wave trough will bring the next chance of showers later Tuesday into early Wednesday. The best chance of showers will occur Tuesday night. Instability appears to be fairly meager, so only expecting isolated to scattered embedded storms at this time. Additional short-wave activity is expected to bring another chance of showers and isolated storms Thursday into early Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday, with pleasant summertime weather anticipated for the first part of the weekend. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 .KOSH...a complex of thunderstorms will move across east-central Wisconsin late this afternoon or early this evening, with additional thunderstorm activity expected during the remainder of the evening into early Sunday morning. Current projections would indicate the complex would reach KOSH between 6 pm and 8 pm. Strong wind gusts over 40 knots are possible this cluster of storms, along with poor visibility in the IFR category in the stronger thunderstorms. Currently have wind gusts to 40 knots in the 18z TAF, but will need to monitor the situation and may need to bump up the wind gusts if the strongest core of winds moves over the airport. There is some model differences if the core of strong winds will move over the airport or go just to the south. Once the first complex of storms moves through the area, additional showers and thunderstorms will move across KOSH through the rest of the evening into early Sunday morning. Once the rain exits the region overnight, IFR CIGS are expected to develop and will continue past sunrise. CIGS will gradually improve into the MVFR category by mid to late morning, then VFR category Sunday afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to around 25 knots Sunday afternoon. For the rest of the forecast area, a complex of thunderstorm will move into portions of central and north-central Wisconsin between 3 pm and 6 pm and across northeast and east-central Wisconsin between 5 pm and 8 pm. The strongest core of winds with the thunderstorm complex will move south of a Marshfield to Algoma line where wind gusts over 40 knots are possible. Torrential rain will lead to poor visibilities in the IFR category in the stronger storms. Once the complex of storms moves through the area, additional shower and thunderstorms will continue into early Sunday morning until the cold front moves east of the area. The rain should end around 09z across eastern Wisconsin. IFR CIGs are expected to develop late tonight and continue into Sunday morning. CIGS will improve into the VFR category Sunday afternoon with gusts to around 25 knots possible. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM.....KLJ LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Eckberg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-241945- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind is the main concern, but large hail, tornadoes, and local flooding from heavy rain is also possible. The greatest chance of severe storms and heavy rain will be in central Wisconsin and the southern Fox Valley between 4 pm and 10 pm. The flooding threat would likely occur later in the evening and into the overnight period. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday Thunderstorms will be possible at times from late Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, but the threat of severe weather appears to be low at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation could be needed late this afternoon and evening. LMZ521-522-541>543-241945- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms could produce strong winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning, especially this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Tuesday night through Thursday. Any storms would pose a hazard to boaters. KLJ/Kieckbusch
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
442 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0436 PM HAIL 5 SW COLOMA 43.98N 89.59W
07/23/2022 U0.50 INCH WAUSHARA WI PUBLIC
REPORT FROM MPING.
&&The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:58 UTC.
19 thunderstorm wind, 2 seiche. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees in Spring Lake. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees near Lohrville. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees in Eureka. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines in Omro. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees, power lines, and snapped power poles in Omro. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees in Winneconne. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous trees near Butte des Morts. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds flipped a plane and caused a tree to fall on a car on EAA grounds. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous trees and power lines throughout Oshkosh. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorms produced a wind gust to 58 mph at the Oshkosh airport.
Thunderstorms produced a wind gust to 68 mph in Oshkosh.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous trees on the southwest side of Appleton. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorms produced a wind gust to 59 mph on the northwest side of Appleton.
Thunderstorm winds destroyed a dock on Lake Winnebago. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorms produced a wind gust to 68 mph near High Cliff State Park.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees in the southwest portion of Green Bay. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Gusty winds associated with severe thunderstorms caused a seiche on Lake Winnebago. The water level on the Fox River at Oshkosh oscillated between 5.65 feet at 645 pm to 7.58 feet at 705 pm.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees on the north side of Manitowoc. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees in Manitowoc. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees near Ellisville. The time of this report is an estimate based on radar data.
Gusty winds associated with severe thunderstorms caused a seiche on Lake Winnebago. The seiche caused damage to docks on Lake Winnebago.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1040315, 1040316, 1040317, 1040318, 1040319, 1040320, 1040321, 1040322, 1040323, 1040331, 1040334, 1040325, 1040332, 1040326, 1040335, 1040327, 1040336, 1040329, 1040328, 1040330, 1040337.