Two rounds of storms moved across southeast Minnesota on July 23rd. The first occurred in the afternoon and produced two tornadoes, wind damage and large hail.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Two rounds of storms moved across southeast Minnesota on July 23rd. The first occurred in the afternoon and produced two tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. A brief EF0 tornado occurred south of Fremont (Winona County) that produced mainly tree damage. Another EF0 tornado touched down just north of Houston (Houston County) and damaged a barn and trees along its path. The storms also produced high winds that damaged structures in Claremont (Dodge County), blew down trees in numerous locations, and produced 66 mph gusts in downtown Rochester (Olmsted County) and near Brownsdale (Mower County) and Sheldon (Houston County). The largest reported hail was quarter sized near Oronoco (Olmsted County). The second round of storms occurred in the late evening, producing dime sized hail near Spring Valley (Fillmore County) before moving into northeast Iowa. Houston County declared a state of emergency following the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 11:20 AM CST, 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Key Messages: - Today: Heat & significant severe weather event becoming more likely - Tuesday night/Wednesday: next chances for rain - Next week: cooler, 70s to low 80s afternoon temps * Today: Severe Storms This potentially significant severe weather event has been the main talking point in previous forecasts of the past couple of days. Now that the event has come within range of the CAMs, confidence has increased for severe storms to impact a majority of the local region. However, exact timing and placement details will depend on ongoing convection, the capping inversion, and how well the cold pool develops to dominate storm progression. Satellite water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough beginning to exit the northern Rockies. This wave is slated to progress eastward today with an associated surface low pressure system. Ahead of this system, plenty of warm and moist air surges into the region as the warm front lifts northward and low-level jet increases advecting in these conditions along with increasing moisture transport ahead of the surface cold front. There's no question that there will be plenty of instability. The 23.00z HREF guidance for ensemble minimum SBCAPE has much of the forecast area exceeding 2000 J/kg by noon. By mid afternoon, some locations push near 4000 J/kg. Mean CIN values by this time would be around between 100 and 25 J/kg as the HREF suggests. There is some question on the exact timing and when the capping inversion breaks. For example, the ARW 23.00z run has an initial round of convection reaching southeast Minnesota before noon, whereas the FV3 23.00z run is not until closer to 5 PM with the other high resolution guidance falling between those times. Forecast soundings having the capping inversion centered around 850 mb still in excess of 125 J/kg by late morning lowers confidence that convection would be initiating by that time. There could be multiple rounds of storms. The potential initial round of storms breaking the early afternoon cap ahead of the main convective line, the convective line itself being cold pool driven, and a final round with the passing of the surface cold front. The main focus for timing of severe storms are from 1 PM to 8 PM with HREF probabilities being over 50% for convection to enter the forecast area around that time. Later into the overnight hours is when flooding becomes the main potential hazard. However, what could throw a wrench into this forecast pertains to the ongoing convection in north central South Dakota and south central North Dakota. Radar imagery has shown these storms have developing over that area in the last few hours which is not currently being handled well by the meso models. If this continues on its current trajectory, then the local area could see convection earlier than forecast as early as 15z. As for the primary threats, damaging wind, large hail, and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are all anticipated. Although all threats are possible depending on storm development and structure. Plenty of shear in the lowest km would also introduce the threat for tornadoes. So cannot rule them out, especially if discrete supercellular storms become surface based at convection onset or within any favorably oriented bowing segments within a QLCS as storms cluster together by early evening. Mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km would support large hail development mainly with initial discreet storms this afternoon. The wind threat increases later in the day into the evening as cells form into a line becoming cold pool driven and dominant. Overall, this has the potential to be a significant event with possible 2" hail and wind gusts up to 75 mph. Last but not least, the heavy rain threat. PWs pushing over 2" and warm cloud depths increasing to near 4 km would support very efficient rainfall production. This in combination with multiple rounds of rain over the same location increases the risk for urban and flash flooding. After the main line of severe storms pass, then lingering flooding impacts could last into the overnight hours. HREF guidance for QPF LPMM has a near east to west oriented narrow swath of 2-4" of accumulation just north of I-90 on the western edge sagging a touch southward on the eastern end just south of the I- 90/I-94 corridor. Again this is still dependent on location and the axis of highest accumulated amounts will likely shift depending on storm tracks and evolution. In addition to the severe storms, heat indices around 100 across the southern tier of counties of the forecast area has called for a heat advisory for today. If precipitation moves over the region earlier than expected, this would result in lower afternoon temperatures therefore decreasing the risk for hazardous heat conditions. * Next Week Overall cooler conditions are expected with afternoon temperatures topping out in the 70s to 80s. The next chance for precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday. While there are still plenty of differences in ensemble and deterministic model guidance with specific timing and exact placement, the general consensus has an upper-level trough and associated surface cold front to sweep through the Upper Mississippi River Region. It is still to early to discern the potential for severe storms at this time, and will continue with the blended model guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Ongoing thunderstorms to the west will move into the area at the beginning of the TAF period. When thunderstorms reach the airports, expect deteriorated visibilities and lower ceilings. Periods of MVFR conditions are expected with the storms. Winds will also be gusty, particularly at KRST where gusts could be as high as 50 kts. Showers and storms will linger into the late evening at both sites before clearing out overnight. Ceilings should remain lower overnight before skies become clearer tomorrow morning. South/southeast winds will become more west/northwest and less gusty overnight. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ061. MN...NONE. IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ018-019-029-030. && DISCUSSION...Peters AVIATION...Dahl
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-241315- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A potentially significant severe weather event has become increasingly likely for this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, large hail near 2", and heavy rainfall are the main threats. Cannot rule out the possibility for isolated tornadoes. Repeated rounds of heavy rain would increase the threat for localized flash and urban flooding. There are some questions on where the highest impacts may occur and this could still shift north or south. Afternoon and early evening heat indices around 100 are expected this afternoon but mainly for areas south of highway 18 across portions of northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Storms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, organized severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters will likely be needed this afternoon and evening. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022
MNZ079-086-087-094-231830-
Wabasha MN-Olmsted MN-Dodge MN-Mower MN-
1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Olmsted, Mower,
western Wabasha and Dodge Counties through 130 PM CDT...
At 1153 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Prior Lake to Warsaw to near Easton. Movement
was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
West Concord around 1240 PM CDT.
Mantorville around 1255 PM CDT.
Oronoco and Mazeppa around 110 PM CDT.
Austin around 120 PM CDT.
Lyle around 125 PM CDT.
Elgin and Rose Creek around 130 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include South Troy, Potsdam,
Eden, Highway 57 And 570th Street, County Roads 6 And 15, Hidden
Meadows R V Park, Rock Dell, Brookside Campground, County Roads 5 And
6 and Mayville.
This includes Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 175 and
215.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.
&&
LAT...LON 4420 9305 4419 9255 4437 9255 4437 9243
4445 9243 4445 9224 4444 9222 4412 9219
4350 9283 4352 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 276DEG 29KT 4472 9346 4423 9341 4371 9394
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RieckThe Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:53 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind, 4 hail, 2 tornado, 1 heavy rain, 1 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong winds damaged a couple of structures in the Claremont area, including a roof blown off a shed. Several large trees were also blown down.
Roofing material was blown off the movie theater in Kasson, allowing water to enter the building which damaged the ceiling and walls.
Quarter sized hail fell west of Oronoco.
Quarter sized hail was reported in Oronoco.
Numerous trees were blown down across Rochester. Power poles were snapped, creating several power outages across the city that affected more than 3,500 customers. One tree fell on a church, causing roof damage that allowed water to leak into the building.
A 59 mph wind gust occurred on the northeast side of Rochester.
The automated weather observing equipment on the Mayo helipad measured a 66 mph wind gust.
A 62 mph wind gust occurred on the northeast side of Rochester.
Several large tree branches and a sign were blown down south of Rochester.
An estimated 66 mph wind gust occurred north of Brownsdale.
Trees were blown down on the west side of Austin.
A mesonet station in Brownsdale measured 5.55 inches of rain.
Several large tree branches were blown down near Saratoga.
Several trees were blown down in Lanesboro.
Runoff from heavy rains caused street flooding to occur in Austin.
A brief EF0 tornado tracked across the southwest sections of Winona County south of Fremont. The damage was limited to trees.
Trees were blown down west of Lewiston.
Trees were blown down in Lewiston.
Several trees were blown down in Rushford.
A 66 mph wind gust occurred north of Sheldon.
An EF0 tornado moved through rural portions of Houston County north of the city of Houston. The tornado destroyed one barn, pushed another off its foundation, and damaged trees and some crops.
Trees were blown down in Mound Prairie.
Several large tree branches were blown down near Nodine.
Radar estimates indicated 2 to 3 inches of rain fell across the eastern sections of Mower County. This resulted in some flash flooding that sent water over a road east of Grand Meadow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Minnesota, 2022Warnings in Minnesota, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1046788, 1050029, 1045432, 1045433, 1049352, 1046790, 1046784, 1046786, 1046785, 1049312, 1046787, 1046791, 1049310, 1049330, 1049333, 1046957, 1049867, 1049012, 1049320, 1049334, 1049045, 1049879, 1049046, 1049332, 1049060, 1049092.