Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, August 3, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

KEY MESSAGES: (optional)

- Heat index values of 100-105 into this evening

- Scattered thunderstorms expected tonight, some of which may be
  severe.

TODAY/TONIGHT:
The forecast for excessive heat remains on track as wide spread heat
index values of 100-105 are already present across much of the areas
under an Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory. A few sites with
values above 110 can't be ruled out where dew points locally rise
into the upper 70s. Thunderstorm this afternoon is expected to
continue to remain limited to far northern Minnesota and Wisconsin,
as 700 mb temperatures around 14C maintain a strong cap over central
Minnesota and points south. There is a very low (~10%) chance of a
few isolated thunderstorms breaking the cap late this afternoon and
evening across western Wisconsin where the cap is weaker. A
conditional severe weather threat exists IF any storms can fire over
western Wisconsin, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts the
potential hazards. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms come
late tonight through the overnight hours, when stronger forcing aloft
arrives from the west. These overnight storms will most likely remain
elevated, meaning they will not be able to tap into the favorable
surface-based environment for severe weather. However, enough mid-
level CAPE and shear is present to possible generate a few stronger
clusters of storms, and maybe a few isolated instances of hail and
gusty winds overnight. Rainfall amounts will be very spotty owing to
the isolated to scattered nature of any storm tonight. Localized
rainfall amounts in excess of 1" are possible wherever thunderstorms
occur, but most other areas will likely see either less than 0.1" or
nothing at all.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
Northwest flow develops Wednesday behind a front which will lead to
drier dewpoints and cooler temperatures, although highs will likely
still end up in the mid to upper 80s across much of eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Southerly flow returns Thursday, but
temperatures won't really peak until Friday when the thermal ridge
axis moves overhead. Highs on Thursday will mostly remain in the mid
to upper 80s, but widespread low to mid 90s look likely Friday
afternoon. If dew point values can reach the upper 60s to low 70s,
Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the area.

THIS WEEKEND:
A cold front will move through the Upper Midwest during the late
Friday to Sunday timeframe, with deterministic models and ensemble
still exhibiting quite a bit of spread regarding its timing. Showers
and thunderstorms are likely with the frontal passage, and the entire
area looks to have at least a decent chance for beneficial rainfall
amounts of half an inch or more. Daily temepratures will depend on
the timing of the front and precipitation. The NBM averaged values
show high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, but a day or two of
below-normal temperatures is possible with cloudy skies during the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

Steady SHRA with embedded TS will occur across most of
central/southern Mn and into west central Wi through 9z. The
strongest storms with IFR vsby/svr winds will occur near the Wi/Mn
border before 630z. Otherwise, TS will slowly diminish by 12z with
some VCTS continuing around KEAU. Cigs will remain VFR with some
MVFR/IFR temporarily in heavier TS. Variable winds will become NW and
become gusty after 12-15z.

KMSP...

VCTS thru 7z, with mainly SHRA before 9z. There could be an isolated
TS before 9z, but not likely. Cigs will remain VFR with some MVFR
vsby in heavier SHRA. After 12z, VFR conditions with W/NW winds at
15g22kt.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Thu...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
900 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
040200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
900 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. A few storms may be
severe. The main hazards are large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Borghoff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1218 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW EDEN PRAIRIE       44.83N 93.47W
08/03/2022  M55 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KFCM EDEN PRAIRIE AP.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E RICHFIELD           44.88N 93.23W
08/03/2022  M62 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KMSP MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL AP.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW BLOOMINGTON       44.81N 93.31W
08/03/2022  M67 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW MINNEAPOLIS        44.95N 93.30W
08/03/2022                   HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN ON HENNEPIN AVE IN UPTOWN
            MINNEAPOLIS. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 E MIESVILLE           44.60N 92.70W
08/03/2022  M62 MPH          GOODHUE            MN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MNDOT WIND SENSOR NEAR RED WING.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
133 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LITTLE CANADA           45.02N 93.08W
08/03/2022                   RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN A MOBILE HOME PARK. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BORGHOFF