Rip Current in Puerto Rico, August 3, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1116 AM AST Wed Aug 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Recent TJSJ 03/12Z sounding indicates a typical environment for
afternoon convective development with decent low/mid level
moisture and the lack of a capping inversion. Winds are from the
east-southeast, which will drive most of the activity into the
northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico. Rainfall should be limited to
just a couple of inches yet minor flooding in affected areas is
possible. Windward showers and streamer development will also
affect the eastern regions of Puerto Rico. Rainfall for the USVI
will be more limited as blustery winds will prevent any showers
lingering over the islands. Heat index values across the region
have reached up to 103 across the northern coast of PR and will
continue to rise this afternoon especially along coastal, urban
areas. Overall, a typical day prevails with afternoon weather and
hot temperatures.

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCT lyrs nr FL025..FL050 with Isold SHRA en route
btw islands and ovr the regional waters. L/lvl wnds fm SE 15-25 kts
BLO FL180. SFC wnd fm E-NE 15-20 kts with some sea breeze variations
and ocnl hir gusts to near 25 kts. winds will become light and
variable aft 03/23Z. No sig operational wx impacts attm.

&&

.MARINE...Current observations from the near shore CARICOOS buoys
are reading wind wave energy of around 4 feet at 6 seconds with
wind varying from the east at around 15 knots. Conditions will
remain choppy due to this for the next few days, with a
deteriorating trend for this weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM AST Wed Aug 3 2022/

SYNOPSIS...

A retrograding TUTT will induce an easterly perturbation
propagating westward across the islands today. Therefore, expect
the typical pattern of passing showers across the Virgin Islands
and windward sections of Puerto Rico followed by more intense
afternoon convection across the northwest quadrant in PR and over
San Juan due to the "El Yunque" streamer. If model guidance
remains constant, the next rain producer will be next Sunday's
tropical wave.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

According to higher resolution models, a surface high pressure
moving further into the north-central Atlantic will promote east
to east-southeast trades ranging between 10 and 20 mph today,
increasing up to 25 mph and becoming more easterly on Thursday and
northeasterly on Friday. A retrogressive Tropical Upper
Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will continue to move away from the
region today. This feature will be replaced by a mid-level ridge,
centered well to the north of the local islands over the north
Atlantic. The latter will gradually strengthen the trade wind cap
inversion through the rest of the cycle. Although relatively drier
air will occasionally stream across the region, perturbations
embedded in the trades will lead to a prevailing increased
moisture pattern in 16-20 hours intervals, with patches of low-
level moisture increasing precipitable water value (TPW) from 1.6
inches this morning, as depicted by GOES-East TPW estimates, to
around 2.0 inches by Thursday night. After that, expect a quick
drying pattern with the entrance of an extended area of drier air
and TPW dropping as low as 1.4 inches.

Although conditions will slowly become hostile for deep
convective development during the next few days, expect the
seasonal shower pattern, accentuated by overnight and early
morning showers moving over windward areas, followed by afternoon
shower development across western Puerto Rico. Sea breeze
convergence and daytime heating could aid in the development of
isolated thunderstorms, producing moderate to locally heavy rains
that could lead to ponding of water on roadways and poorly drained
areas. Increased stability and winds, resulting in shallow, fast-
moving showers, will lead to lesser rainfall totals from this
evening onwards. Still, increased frequency of trade wind showers
could result in significant rainfall totals by Thursday night.
Expect streamer-like showers each afternoon downwind from El
Yunque and the local islands into eastern Puerto Rico and
neighboring islands. Daytime high temperatures will peak in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s across lower elevations, with heat
indices slightly lower than previous days, peaking into the lower
to mid 100s.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

A surface high pressure in the North Atlantic will promote breezy
trade winds Saturday through early next week. However, Saturday's
wind surge and Sunday's tropical wave will induce fluctuations in
the main wind flow.

Model guidance indicates a wet and unstable weather pattern due
to the arrival of a wind surge on Saturday and a robust tropical
wave Sunday/Monday. These features will interact with a TUTT
lingering near the Northeast Caribbean. The best chance to observe
scattered thunderstorms and widespread showers at this time looks
like Sunday and Monday. Subsidence behind the wave will limit
shower activity Monday night into Tuesday before the arrival of a
second wind surge Tuesday morning. Then we forecast the appearance
of a tropical wave axis late Tuesday night or early Wednesday
morning.

AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all local terminals
through the cycle. Trade wind SHRA may result in brief MVFR
conditions at TJSJ, TJBQ, and USVI terminals through 03/14Z.
Afternoon SHRA/TSRA development could also result in MVFR
conditions at TJSJ and TJBQ around 03/16-22Z. Except for TJPS,
where winds will remain light and variable, east winds will
continue through the cycle, increasing from 10-15 knots to 10-20
knots with higher gusts and sea breeze variations by mid-morning.

MARINE...

Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to support some
moderate chops to choppy conditions across the waters. Seas of 5
feet or less will prevail until tomorrow when a wind surge
increases local winds and seas up to 22 knots and 6 feet,
respectively. Winds and seas will increase even more from Friday
onward, and we may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria on Sunday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for nearly all local
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  89  78 /  40  40  50  50
STT  91  79  89  77 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....RC
PUBLIC DESK...RVT

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
444 AM AST miercoles 3 de agosto de 2022

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-041200-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y
Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y
lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe-
444 AM AST miercoles 3 de agosto de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Rayos...Posibles tronadas aisladas a traves del cuadrante
noroeste de la isla. Este atento a las tronadas en su area y este
preparado para refugiarse.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulacion de agua en las carreteras y las
areas de drenaje deficiente en el cuadrante noroeste de la isla.
Inundaciones, si alguna, seran localizadas en areas que pudieran
experimentar escorrentias rapidas debido a lluvias fuertes.

.Calor Excesivo...Indices de calor de 102 a 107 grados,
principalmente en areas costeras y urbanas del norte y sectores del
extremo oeste y noroeste de la isla. Agotamiento por calor es
posible con una exposicion prolongada.

.Viento...Los objetos no asegurados podrian moverse con el viento.

.Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas
deben ejercer precaucion a traves de las aguas costeras y sectores
de las aguas del Caribe.

.Corrientes Marinas...Condiciones de corrientes marinas amenazante a
la vida son posibles en zonas costeras de la mayor parte de la isla,
excepto en las playas del oeste y del centro-sur.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

Las condiciones de corrientes maritimas amenazantes a la vida
regresaran el jueves. Se esperan indices de calor por encima de lo
normal cada tarde hasta el fin de semana. Las condiciones ventosas,
y por lo tanto, el oleaje picado continuaran durante los proximos
dias, y las condiciones maritimas peligrosas regresaran para finales
del fin de semana. Una onda tropical aumentara la actividad de
aguaceros y tronadas aisladas para finales del fin de semana hasta
principios de la proxima semana, lo que aumentara el riesgo de
lluvia excesiva y rayos.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa la activacion de los observadores. Favor de compartir
cualquier informacion sobre vientos, inundaciones y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan siguiendo
todas las recomendaciones locales y estatales.
jueves

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-041200-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del
Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
444 AM AST miercoles 3 de agosto de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Los objetos no asegurados podrian moverse con el viento.

.Condiciones Maritimas...Los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas
deben ejercer precaucion a traves de las aguas costeras y sectores
de las aguas del Caribe.

.Corrientes Marinas...Condiciones de corrientes marinas amenazante a
la vida son posibles en zonas costeras de la mayor parte de la isla,
excepto en las playas del oeste y del centro-sur.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

Las condiciones de corrientes maritimas amenazantes a la vida
regresaran el sabado. Se esperan indices de calor alrededor de 100
grados cada tarde hasta el fin de semana. Las condiciones ventosas,
y por lo tanto, el oleaje picado continuaran durante los proximos
dias, y las condiciones maritimas peligrosas regresaran para finales
del fin de semana. Una onda tropical aumentara la actividad de
aguaceros y tronadas aisladas para finales del fin de semana hasta
principios de la proxima semana, lo que aumentara el riesgo de
lluvia excesiva y rayos.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa la activacion de los observadores. Favor de compartir
cualquier informacion sobre vientos, inundaciones y corrientes
marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan siguiendo
todas las recomendaciones locales y estatales.