Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with low pressure moving along a frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of the Middle Peninsula.
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The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with low pressure moving along a frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of the Middle Peninsula.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 5:50 AM EST, 6 hours 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 650 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over eastern and southeast portions of the area into Saturday morning, before dissipating Sunday. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to persist each day, with the best chances being along and southeast of the frontal boundary. More diurnally driven showers or storms will be possible this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 345 AM EDT Friday... Watching two areas of shower/thunderstorm activity early this morning, the first being across MD Eastern Shore and the second area across NE NC. Expect the northern area to generally diminish in coverage as we head towards sunrise while the southern area becomes the primary focus through the morning hours. Any of these storms will be capable of producing some briefly heavy, rather efficient rainfall with warm cloud depths AOA 4 km. Latest guidance continues to suggest the front will become a little more active later this morning into this afternoon as a weak upper disturbance pivots across the region. Severe weather still remains unlikely given the weak wind fields, however localized heavy rainfall is possible given the slow movement of the storms and some possible training of the storms as the front will be nearly parallel to the mean flow aloft. Best chance for showers/storms will be across southern/SE VA into NE NC. WPC still has southern portions of the area highlighted in a Marginal ERO, thus will continue heavy rain mention in the HWO. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 80s (slightly cooler at the coast as onshore flow develops). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Friday... The front remains near the region on Saturday, with the models suggesting continued troughiness aloft. This suggests scattered convection once again on Saturday afternoon/evening. The best shower and storm coverage looks to be again focused towards the southern portion of the region, but all of the forecast area has the potential to see a shower or storm Saturday. Severe weather is once again not anticipated due to continued weak wind fields. Feeling a bit more humid again on Saturday as the flow becomes southerly across the region. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 80s with lows Saturday night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Remaining unsettled on Sunday as the region remains in moist, southerly flow and a low pressure system slowly approaches from the Great Lakes region. Similar to the past couple of days, scattered showers and storms are once again expected to develop by the afternoon hours with any of these storms bringing the potential for some localized heavy rainfall. High temperatures on Sunday generally in the upper 80s and lows Sunday night generally in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Friday... Typical summer time weather next week with seasonable heat/humidity as upper heights remain near or slightly above normal through the week and the Bermuda high stays in place off the SE coast. Expect mainly pop up afternoon and evening showers and storms each day, although there are hints of better chances for storms on Monday with a surface trough moving through and some lowering heights. Perhaps a better chance for storms on Wednesday and even Thursday as a stronger upper trough approaches from the NW. Overall expect a warming trend next week with highs in the low 90s Monday and Tuesday, with mid to even upper 90s possible as we head into Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will remain mild in the 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Friday... Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the 12z TAF period. A weak frontal boundary remains stalled across southeastern portions of the area, slowly drifting back to the north later this afternoon into tonight. ECG may see a brief period of MVFR ceilings (~3000 feet) this morning along the boundary. Scattered showers and storms develop early this afternoon into this evening, especially for the SE terminals, potentially leading to some brief instances of sub- VFR conditions. Low stratus or patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Outlook: A typical summertime pattern remains in place into next week, with additional isolated to scattered storms expected mainly each afternoon and evening. Instances of early morning fog and stratus will also be possible into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Friday... A weak frontal boundary is located near the MD/VA line over the middle of the Bay early this morning. the wind is generally 5- 10kt, and WSW ahead of the front and northerly behind the front. Seas are ~2ft and waves in the Bay are approximately 1 foot. The front is expected to nudge south over the next few hours, and then lift back north this afternoon, before washing out tonight. Wind speeds today into tonight are expected to be less than 15kt outside of tstms. The wind direction is expected to shift to ENE behind the boundary this morning and S ahead of the front, with most areas becoming S of SE by this afternoon, then S or SW tonight. High pressure settles off the coast Saturday and Sunday. Wind speeds remain at or below 15kt, with the direction from the SSE during the afternoon/early evening, and SW overnight into early morning. Seas remain ~2ft, with waves in the Bay ~1 foot (1-2ft at the mouth of the Bay) today through Sunday. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast early next week. The wind is expected to generally be SSW 10-15kt, with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB/MRD LONG TERM...AJB/MRD AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 419 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>086-099-100-509>522-160830- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg- Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond- Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George- Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Accomack- Northampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 419 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ087>090-092-093-095>098-523>525-160830- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Greensville-Sussex-Surry- James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk- Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 419 AM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Localized heavy rainfall is possible this afternoon with thunderstorms. This may cause some excessive ponding of water on roadways and some minor flooding of ditches and small streams. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
115 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022
VAZ078-084-085-520-151800-
Middlesex VA-Lancaster VA-Eastern King and Queen VA-Gloucester VA-
115 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Gloucester, Middlesex, east central King and Queen and central
Lancaster Counties through 200 PM EDT...
At 115 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Church View, or near Urbanna, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy
rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible. Heavy rain could result in ponding of water on
roadways.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Glenns around 145 PM EDT.
Urbanna and Saluda around 150 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Nesting, Weems,
Mollusk, Senora, Slabtown, Harmony Village, Bertrand, Harcum, Cash
and Millenbeck.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3775 7641 3748 7650 3757 7678 3757 7680
3773 7675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 284DEG 9KT 3763 7669
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
MillerThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:31 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree was downed onto a power line at Oakley Lane.
Tree was downed onto a power line off of Route 198.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1048112, 1048113.