Two people were killed after heavy rain which produced a destructive debris flow in the Cameron Peak burn area. The 37-yr old woman and her 12-yr old daughter were in a camp trailer that was swept away at Calcite Road along Sheep Creek.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOU wrote it up.
Two people were killed after heavy rain which produced a destructive debris flow in the Cameron Peak burn area. The 37-yr old woman and her 12-yr old daughter were in a camp trailer that was swept away at Calcite Road along Sheep Creek. In addition, a cabin along Granite Road was destroyed in the flood. Buckhorn Rd (LCR 44H) was heavily damaged in the flood. Several other roads were washed out or extensively damaged.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 2:04 PM MST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 304 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the mountains moving northeastward into the foothills. Expect this activity to continue, eventually spreading onto the plains late afternoon/early evening. There is potential for another round of showers and weak storms over the north and middle parks overnight; however, there isn't strong agreement among HREF members on the coverage and timing. A front moves through overnight with synoptic descent working in behind it. Ridge stays aloft tomorrow with the previous shortwave trough exiting to the east. Subsident flow in place will effectively lower PW values throughout the day. The main challenge will be cloud cover tomorrow morning and how quickly it will clear into the afternoon. Slower clearing may hinder highs and limit overall instability. Given a sufficient window of clearing, can expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon; however, lower in coverage than yesterday. The high terrain and areas south of I-70 will be favorable given better instability. Temperatures will overall be "cooler" with slightly cooler temperatures aloft post- front and light northerly winds. Highs may still reach the low 90s for much of the lower elevations given optimal clearing. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES...BUT ON THE EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR A LITTLE RELIEF SOME DAYS NEXT WEEK... For Saturday night, the scattered storms that are able to develop during the daylight hours Saturday will continue to shift to the southeast and gradually come to an end in the evening hours. Most of those in the evening should be confined to the Palmer Divide/ Park County and points southward as dry air and subsidence continue to build in from the north. Sunday will be hotter again as the ridge centered near the Four Corners amplifies and the entire column warms. We'll also be drier with little if any storm coverage for our forecast area, perhaps just isolated late day activity in the mountains with little if any CAPE to be found. Given the drying and warming, look for high temperatures to rebound into the upper 90s across the plains and I-25 Corridor, with 70s and 80s mountains, and a few lower 90s in the lower foothills. Monday is still on track to be the hottest day of the upcoming week. A fast moving shortwave tracking across the Northern Rockies will flatten the ridge slightly, resulting in more of a zonal flow aiding downslope component. 700 mb temperatures will warm to 20-21C, and combined with the downslope and lee troughing we'll likely hit 100+ across all of the plains and I-25 Urban Corridor. Agree with the previous forecaster and existing forecasts that these types of events usually end up on the hotter end of guidance, so 102-103 would be possible for Denver. That said, a limiting factor by late in the day is that a mid level moisture plume is picked up and stretched across the forecast area, which will likely bring in some afternoon high based cloudiness and convection. Whatever the case, record heat is likely, which would likely lead to the issuance of a Heat Advisory for Monday. With the strength of the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains short wave, a cold front will be able to push into northeast Colorado by Tuesday. Depending on the timing, it could still be quite hot but at least some cooling should occur Tuesday into Wednesday. However, we still expect high temperatures into the 90s across the plains, and a continuation of above normal temperatures. We'll also likely be on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume, with better coverage of showers and storms in the mountains and points to our south, while the northern border area/northeast plains will likely stay drier. This weather pattern/similar daily scenarios should stay in place through at least Thursday, and then toward Friday or next weekend there are ensemble signs that a better monsoonal moisture plume may arrive. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1201 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. BKN high cloud decks develop this afternoon as moisture increases over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, likely in the 22-02Z timeframe. Heavy rain and variable wind gusts up to 40 kts are possible from any stronger storms . Winds return to light drainage after 06Z. Saturday will be drier with upper level clouds persisting. Light northerly component winds for the afternoon. There is chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon; however, chances are sufficiently lower than yesterday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 A moist airmass will lead to widespread coverage of storms today. Storms form early this afternoon over the higher terrain. Due to slow storm movement and heavy rainfall, an inch of rain will be possible in less than 30 minutes with the stronger storms. This will result in an elevated risk of flash flooding and debris flows over the burn areas. Locally heavy rain and minor flooding threat will even be possible on the eastern plains due to the slow movement and storms taking advantage of an increasing southeasterly low level jet. That would give some organization and threat of up to 2 inches or more of rain from isolated stronger/training storm this evening. There will be a limited/low threat of flash flooding over the burn areas Saturday. There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon; however, lower precipitable water values and marginal instability will keep coverage less than Friday. Dry conditions should prevail Sunday with no flash flood threat. There may be a limited threat of storms starting again Monday, but it does not appear that any significant threat will develop through at least next Thursday given limited amounts of atmospheric moisture and instability. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ030-032>035. && SHORT TERM...Mensch LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Mensch HYDROLOGY...Mensch/Barjenbruch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1103 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 COZ030>051-161715- Jackson County Below 9000 Feet- West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet- Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet- South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/ Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet- South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/ Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above 9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet- Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet- Central and Southeast Park County- Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County- Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield County- North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County- Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet- Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County- Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties- North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln County- Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County- Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County- 1103 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST TROUBLESOME, CAMERON PEAK, WILLIAMS FORK, CALWOOD, AND MULLEN BURN AREAS.. This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, some of which will produce locally heavy rainfall. As a result, there is an elevated risk of flash flooding in and near the recent burn areas as well as a Flash Flood Watch for the burn areas from 11 AM to 9 PM. As storms move east onto the plains, they will remain capable of producing heavy rain and could produce localized flooding. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday While the entire period looks warm with above normal temperatures, Sunday and Monday will be the hottest days with highs near or above 100 degrees across the plains. The heat risk on Monday will be elevated so a Heat Advisory may be needed. The burn area flash flood risk will be minimal by Sunday, but may increase a little again next work week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight. However, any heavy rainfall or flooding reports will be appreciated.
The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:57 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two people were killed when very heavy rainfall produced flash flooding in the Cameron Peak burn area.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Larimer | 2022-07-15 | 37 | Female | Camping | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Larimer | 2022-07-15 | 12 | Female | Camping | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1029111.