NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 4:42 AM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 4:42 AM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
442 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm system will track from the Southeast United
States northeast across the local area late today into early
Monday morning. High pressure returns for Monday night through
midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EST Sunday...
Early this morning, 1032mb high pressure was centered over nrn
New England while low pressure was centered over the Gulf coast
states. Increasing high and mid level clouds were spreading NNE
into the region well in advance of low pressure to the SSW.
Temps ranged from the upper teens to the lower 30s. High pressure
will gradually move east and off the New England coast by early
this aftn, while one piece of the low lifts nwrd through the
mountains, and a secondary low moves NE through SC. This low
will then lift nwrd up through NC and east-central VA from late
this aftn through this evening while intensifying. It then
continues NNE through PA and into ern NY later tonight into Mon
aftn.
Initial slug of WAA/Isentropic overrunning moisture ahead of
the system will result a quick burst of snow lifting S to N
over the area late this morning into this aftn, quickly turning
to rain along the coastal areas from Hampton Roads/NE NC up to
the Atlc coast of MD. However, that change will take a bit
longer for the I-95 corridor and more so over to the VA Piedmont.
Looking at our experimental in-house snow rates guidance and
impressive mid-level QG omega axis pivoting through, it's not at
all out of the question that we overcome marginal dynamic
profiles locally over the I-95 corridor and pick up a quick 1-2
inches of snow later this morning through mid-aftn before the
warm nose quickly lifts across central VA and forces rapid mid-
level warming. This will entail an abrupt changeover to sleet
and eventually plain rain over the I-95 zones from mid aftn into
early this evening from SE to NNW, continuing into tonight as
mid-level warming works its way well inland. However, with
freezing temps at the sfc to be overcome across the piedmont,
light icing is likely over the western half of the area. The
area of greatest concern locally remains from around Farmville
south to Boydton. These areas could receive 0.1-0.2" ice
accumulation on top of about 1-3" of snow. This enhances the
concern for additional tree damage and power outages as well as
potential travel disruptions before relatively milder air
arrives late this evening.
Snow accumulations are on the order of an inch or two for the
I-95 corridor, with localized amounts of up to 3" not at all out
of the question for the far NNW portions of the Advy area from
Midlothian up to Short Pump to Ladysmith. So, have maintained
Winter Weather Advisory for these areas, and southward to
Northampton county NC, with Winter Storm Warnings just west for
a combination of 2-5" of snow plus light icing on the back
side.
Finally, quickly deepening low lifting across the area will
bring very strong winds. Have issued a Wind Advisory for coastal
sections of the area, with gusts to 45 mph expected. Even
inland, gusts of 30-40 mph are likely over the western half of
the area this evening before backing off late tonight. Even with
a changeover to rain likely over most of if not the entire area
by that point, additional power outages are a distinct possibility
over the area late this aftn and evening. The system lifts out
of the region late tonight, with top-down drying ensuing. Some
lingering light mixed pcpn possible after midnight, but expect
dry conditions by sunrise Mon morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EST Sunday...
Sfc low pressure will lift NNE through NY and into SE Canada
during Mon. The upper-level low will also be pulling NE during
Mon. However, a secondary shortwave trough will move across the
region Mon aftn. This may provide enough lift and moisture for
a few rain/snow showers to develop Mon aftn into early Mon
evening. Temps will be above freezing at this time, so little
to no accumulation of snow is expected during this time period.
Temps will remain fairly steady on Mon, as the colder air
filters back into the area on the backside of the sfc low that
will be north of the area. In addition, clouds will be developing
again, limiting any heating during the aftn. Westerly winds
will be elevated on Mon as well. Sustain winds are forecasted
to be 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph inland, and sustain winds
20-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph along the coast. Highest winds
will be along the immediate shore of the bay and ocean. These
winds will lead to wind chills in the mid 20s to lower 30s for
Mon aftn.
High pressure will be centered SW or W of the area Mon night
into Tue morning. Temps will drop into the 20s to near 30.
The center of the high will slide by to our south and off the
coast for Tue and Tue night. Mostly sunny on Tue with highs
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clear or mostly clear Tue night
with lows ranging through the 20s into the lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 420 AM EST Sunday...
There is decent model consensus to begin the medium range
period, and this features high pressure centered offshore
Wednesday, with a cold front approaching from the NW as a cold
upper trough dives into the Great Lakes. Wednesday will likely
be the mildest day of the period with high temperatures ranging
from the mid/upper 40s NW to the mid 50s SW. The overall model
consensus depicts the cold front dropping through the area later
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with colder air filtering
in from the NW. PoPs for rain showers are 30-50% at this time,
and there is a potential for a rain/snow mix on the NW fringe as
precipitation ends. Forecast highs Thursday range from the
upper 30s NW to the upper 40s SE, after morning lows around 30F
NW to around 40F SE.
Attention then turns to the late week period. A colder airmass
arrives from the NW Friday into Saturday with the potential for a
vigorous shortwave and surface low pressure lifting NE in vicinity
of the Carolina coast. Confidence is low in this time period despite
some deterministic global models showing the potential for snow
across the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern Carolinas. It is best
to use ensemble guidance this far out, and the EPS has 30-50% probs
for 1" of snow Friday-Saturday and 20-30% for 3" (which is somewhat
notable at this range), the GEFS has similar values, and the CMC
has lower values. It is important to follow the latest forecasts
over the next several days and avoid extreme outliers until details
come into better focus. Regardless, it will likely be much colder
later next week into the weekend with highs in the upper 20s to 30s,
and lows in the teens and 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM EST Sunday...
Early this morning, 1032mb high pressure was centered over nrn
New England while low pressure was centered over the Gulf coast
states. High pressure will gradually move east and off the New
England coast by early this aftn, while one piece of the low
lifts nwrd through the mountains, and a secondary low moves
northeast through SC. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
at the TAF sites until about 11am or noon today. Then, conditions
deteriorate quickly this aftn into this evening, as low pressure
tracks NNE over the coastal plain of NC and into east-central VA.
Pcpn is expected to begin as SN at RIC (potentially moderate to
heavy for a 1-3 hr period), before transitioning to PL, briefly
FZRA, then RA. Elsewhere, mainly RA is expected, although a
brief RA/SN mix is possible during the onset at SBY/PHF.
IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to develop at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG
during this aftn, with MVFR at SBY. An ENE wind is expected to
increase to 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt inland, and 15-25kt with
gusts to 30-40kt toward the coast later this aftn into this
evening. Also, have wind shear (WS020) of 45-50kt from the ESE
at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG late this aftn into early this evening.
Degraded flight conditions continue into early tonight, as low
pressure tracks up through VA. A strong ESE wind is expected
late this aftn into this evening, esply toward the coast, and
this will shift to SW overnight, as the low departs to the
north. Drying and breezy conditions are expected Mon, as low
pressure tracks into New England and high pressure builds across
the SE. VFR conditions are expected Tue into Wed, as high pressure
builds across the area. A cold front drops across the area Wed
night into Thu with a chc of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EST Sunday...
Gale headlines in place across all the waters as low pres across the
deep south this morning moves ne along the I-95 corridor late this
aftrn and eve before lifting ne while deepening late tonite and Mon.
NE winds today become E-SE late this aftrn and eve and rapidly
increase to 25-35 knots with gusts of 40-45 knots as the low tracks
across the area. Wind probs cont to show a period of very strong
gales to potentially a few storm force gusts btwn 21Z-00Z across the
srn zones, spreading N into the remainder of the area btwn 00Z-06Z.
Winds briefly diminish while shifting to the S, then ramp back up as
they turn to W/SW between 06-12Z Mon. This is due to deep mixing and
the rapidly deepening sfc low north of the local area (on the order
of 20mb/6 hr). This results in gale force gusts contg thru the day
Mon and into Mon evening along the coastal waters. Winds diminish
Mon night/Tues as high pressure builds into the area.
Seas rapidly build to btwn 10-15 ft late this aftn/eve (due to the
onshore flow), then remain elevated into Mon. High surf advisories
remain in effect from later today across the srn waters, spreading
north along the Delmarva beaches tonight as near shore waves build
to 8 ft or higher due to the strong onshore winds. Nearshore waves
subside Mon as the flow turns offshore. Waves in the Bay will also
rapidly build, especially across the Lower Bay, where 5-7 ft waves
will be possible this eve (and up to 8-9ft at the mouth of the Bay).
Conditions improve by mid week as high pres builds into the area.
However, seas may take a while to drop below 5 ft Tue/Tue night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 AM EST Sunday...
Strong low pressure will approach from the sw this morn, track just
inland from the Bay/Ocean waters later today, then rapidly off to
the north tonight/Mon. As a result, a strong onshore (E-SE) flow
will rapidly increase late this afternoon into tonight, then shift
to the W/SW overnight and last into Mon aftn.
This pattern tends to lead to the most significant tidal flooding
across the western shore of the middle/upper Bay in response to E to
SE winds to Gale force, then as the winds shift to the SW overnight,
areas in MD lower shore along the Bay will see a rapid rise in water
levels after midnight/early Mon AM.
Have replaced the Coastal Flood Watch with a Warning for areas
including Windmill Pt, Lewisetta, Bishop's Head, Crisfield, Saxis
where confidence is high enuf that at least some moderate flooding
will occur. Also, did a coastal flood advsry for the srn Ches Bay
and James River where minor some flooding is expected during
this evenings high tide.
Tidal water levels rapidly diminish by later Mon morning as the low
pulls away and winds become offshore. In addition to tidal flooding,
high surf advisories cont along the coast starting later today as
seas build to 10 to 15 feet. Rough surf may result in instances of
beach erosion and dune overwash.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
Monday for MDZ021>023.
High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
for MDZ025.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for
MDZ024-025.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ012-
013-030.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for
NCZ015>017-102.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday
for NCZ102.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-509.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ089-
090-092.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Monday for VAZ089-090-093-096-524.
Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
Monday for VAZ099.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for
VAZ077-078-084>086-523-525.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EST this evening for
VAZ084-086-100-523-525.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ060>062-
065>069-510.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for
VAZ095-097-098.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday
for VAZ098.
High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
for VAZ099-100.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for
VAZ099-100.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ075-
076-079>083-087-088-512-514-516>522.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for VAZ064-511-
513-515.
Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
Monday for VAZ075-077-078-085.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>638.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>634.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ