NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 28, 3:18 AM MST, 7 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 28, 3:18 AM MST, 7 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
418 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will continue to spread across the area
through Thursday, bringing increased precipitation chances to the
region. A cold front will move into northern Utah on Friday,
supporting continued precipitation chances before a gradual drying
trend begins this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Early morning analysis and
satellite products depict a decaying high pressure ridge near the
Four Corners region, with a northwestward extending ridge axis
located across Utah. Meanwhile, a shortwave is noted to our
southwest across southern California while an area of low pressure
lurks just west of the Washington state coastline. Utah and
southwest Wyoming are now placed in between the above-mentioned
large-scale features, and as a result, deep-layer west-southwest
flow has developed. Mid-level moisture advection is well underway
early this morning within this flow, and a mid-level cloud deck
with embedded virga/sprinkles has developed from SW Utah
northeastward into northern Utah, captured best by the high-res
FV3. Given antecedent dry low-levels, a couple of these showers
will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds this morning. As
we head through the day, the above-mentioned California shortwave
and its associated subtle vorticity advection will swing
northeast through the state, providing some larger-scale forcing
to support convective initiation. General theme for the day will
feature gradually increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage,
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms common by
afternoon. An exception will be across southeast Utah and the
Swell, where moisture will be more limited. Due to the presence of
initially dry low-levels through much of the day, forecast
soundings are of the inverted-v variety, and flow through the
boundary layer is unidirectional out of the southwest-- with
steep low to mid level lapse rates present as well. Thus, showers
and storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow
winds/microbursts. 00Z HREF confirms this risk, with a 70%
probability of thunderstorm gusts of >30kt painted across Dugway
and the Great Salt Lake Desert late this afternoon. As low-levels
gradually moisten through the day, a few showers and storms will
be capable of producing locally heavy rain, and any training
storms will increase the flash-flood risk across susceptible
areas. With PWATs forecast to rise into the 0.6-0.8" range by late
today, the available quality of moisture pales in comparison to
what was observed last week, and instability is forecast to only
be of the modest variety, thus widespread heavy rainfall potential
is absent from this forecast period. However, training heavier
cells do still carry some risk for flash-flooding if they train
over sensitive areas.
As we head through tonight, a vort lobe is progged to slide
eastward across northern Utah as the earlier mentioned area of low
pressure moves into Washington state and Oregon. Increasing
dynamics by way of improving upper divergence will maintain
isolated showers across northern Utah and SW Wyoming overnight,
and modest elevated instability will support an isolated
thunderstorm risk. Forcing for ascent will continue to improve as
we head through the day Thursday with the approach of the low
(forecast to move into the Idaho Panhandle by this time), and
moisture quality improves at the same time across northern Utah as
evidenced by the emergence of a plume of IVT across northern Utah
and SW Wyoming by Thursday afternoon. Thus, periods of showers and
thunderstorms will develop across northern Utah (maximized
along/north of I-70) during the afternoon, with heavier cells
capable of producing over 0.10"/hr rainfall rates. Given the
continued presence of large-scale ascent, global models and
ensembles are in good agreement depicting continued showers across
northern Utah and SW Wyoming lingering through Thursday night.
Precipitation production will be further buoyed via increasing low
to mid-level frontogenesis courtesy of a cold front approaching
from the northwest. As we approach the end of the forecast period
late Thursday night, snow levels will undergo gradual descent,
becoming low enough by late Thursday night to provide increasing
potential for at least a light coating of slushy snow across the
high Uintas. At this time, accumulations are expected to remain
light given limited wet-bulb potential.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...Minor impacts from
precipitation and wind are expected Friday through Saturday as the
trough centered over the forecast area slowly lifts, exiting to
the northeast through the weekend. Notably, this system will bring
some of the coldest H7 temps of the season to the Utah/Idaho
border. While the highest peaks will see temperatures fall to just
above/near freezing, it will be difficult to realize the full
extent of those cooler temps in valleys overnight given cloud
cover and gusty winds munitioning a well-mixed boundary layer in
most areas. That said, areas along the Wasatch Front may fall near
50F, with the Wasatch Back and central Utah valleys in the mid to
low 40s. Expect large temperature swings with daytime highs
rapidly warming on Saturday, Sunday, and beyond as cloud cover
recedes each day.
Gusty winds are expected for exposed terrain across the entire state
in the wake of the trough Friday and especially Saturday, but will
remain relatively tame thanks to the slackening gradient of the
weakening trough. Following Thursday's precipitation, the lower
levels moisten, and expecting lower LCLs and a better environment
for more widespread precipitation across south central and eastern
Utah on Friday, aided by lift generated with an incoming vort lobe
surging through the base of the trough. While lacking the
frontogenetical forcing of the day prior, reasonable precipitation
chances exist for much of the state east of I-15, and greater still
for the high terrain. As the parent trough lifts, the best dynamics
will shift north towards the eastern valleys, Uinta mountains, and
southwest Wyoming, with precipitation continuing through Saturday
morning and possibly into the afternoon before tapering off.
Increasing stability in the mid-levels is likely to transition
precipitation to more light and stratiform in nature with a greater
orographic component at the tail end of the event.
The aforementioned scenario is the one of greatest likelihood at
this time, but it is worth noting that 27% of the ensemble
membership produce a less progressive and weaker system that fails
to bring as much moisture through the base of the trough. Another
12% of the membership suggest faster progression enhancing the
impact of the dry slot and limiting the precipitation to eastern
Utah and western Colorado. For the upcoming workweek, uncertainty
grows among the ensembles, though some extent of ridging is present
in all. Generally expecting dry, cloudless, and gradually warming
conditions, though displacement of the ridge in some solutions would
allow for weak disturbances to slide into the region by mid next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Showers west of the terminal this morning are
producing weak (10-12kt) outflow wind gusts, which are expected to
periodically disrupt the southeast drainage flow. Winds are expected
to stay southerly through the valid TAF period outside of outflow
wind gusts produced by any showers that may form northwest of the
terminal, especially this afternoon. Dry air near the surface should
help keep high CIGs and good VSBYs maintaining VFR conditions
through the valid TAF period.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected from late morning through the afternoon
across central and especially southern Utah, increasing in coverage
across the state into the afternoon. Generally south to southwest
winds will increase through the morning, with gusty southerly winds
expected at most terminals. Erratic outflow winds will be the main
impact from any nearby showers or thunderstorms. Showers may linger
through the evening and overnight into Thursday, especially in the
eastern half of the forecast area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture continues to increase from southwest to
northeast across the state early this morning, with some high
based, light showers observed. As moisture continues to increase
today in conjunction with a disturbance moving northeastward
across the area, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to
increase as well. Showers will be initially dry, especially for
northern areas, before trending wetter as we head through the day.
Due to the initially dry low levels, showers and storms will be
capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds. As activity
gradually trends wetter, the main threat with this activity will
transition to a local heavy rainfall threat. Some showers and
thunderstorms will linger across northern Utah tonight before
increasing in coverage with daytime heating on Thursday,
especially across the mountains, eastern valleys, and northern
Utah generally along and east of the Great Salt Lake. A cold front
will then move through northern Utah on Friday, bringing cooler
temperatures along with widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly along and east of I-15. Showers will linger
across many of these same areas on Saturday as an area of low
pressure meanders around southeast Idaho. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will trend dryer and more isolated on Sunday as the low
moves away. Drier and warmer conditions then arrive for early
next week.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
ADeSmet/Wessler
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