A broad longwave midlevel trough dug into eastern Utah before lifting overhead. The increase in moisture and favorable southwesterly flow resulted in moderate snowfall over the La Sal and Abajo Mountains.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A broad longwave midlevel trough dug into eastern Utah before lifting overhead. The increase in moisture and favorable southwesterly flow resulted in moderate snowfall over the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Wind gusts exceeded 45 mph at times in the mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 10:55 AM MST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1055 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows mid to high level moisture moving up from the southwest ahead of the trough axis currently extending from the cutoff low along the Southern California-Arizona border northeast over the Uinta Basin and up to Riverton WY. Satellite and surface observations show the cold front is currently moving through the Salt Lake City area moving southeast at about 45 mph. The front will pass through eastern Utah and Western Colorado through the day today, exiting to the southeast by this evening. Radar indicates areas of light precip from Moab to the northeast to the Elkhead Mountains. Haven't seen any report of precipitation at the surface yet. This indicates likely virga in the Grand Junction area and southward due to drier lower levels. Areas to the north should start seeing some light snow beginning in the next few hours and spreading south through the day. Areas north of the I-70 corridor will see snow through the morning hours, decreasing through the afternoon and evening. South of the I-70 corridor will see the snow increasing through the late morning and afternoon before decreasing through the evening and overnight. Look for skies to clear out from west to east Thursday morning as cold, dry air moves in behind this system. The heavier snow will be in the mountains and higher elevations east of a Dolores CO - Baggs WY line. Overall, expect generally 2 to 6 inches in the western Colorado mountains with locally higher amounts possible at the higher peaks. This remains consistent with previous runs with amounts below advisory criteria, so will not be issuing any winter weather highlights with this system. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 A weak shortwave will move through the area Thursday night through early Friday morning in northwest flow behind today's trough and cold front. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected with the passage of this shortwave which will clip the north, bringing maybe some light snowfall to the Park Range. Aside from that, mainly expecting an increase in mid and high cloud cover with its passage. Meanwhile a low pressure system will undercut the ridge of high pressure out west and make its way down the west coast towards SoCal and the northern Baja by the weekend, allowing a shortwave ridge of high pressure to move overhead. This will bring a period of warm air advection with temperatures rising from near normal on Friday to above normal levels this weekend by about 5 to 10 degrees. A stronger low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska Sunday into Monday, helping to break this western ridge down with southwest flow and cloud cover increasing over the western slope ahead of this system by early next week. Forecast confidence decreases beyond this weekend as the models are still inconsistent both between runs and models with the timing and exact track of this upper level trough. Regardless of these differences, either solution indicates a pattern change to a wetter, cooler and more unsettled period through much of next week with troughiness across the west. The blended solution offers a good balance to accommodate these discrepancies, in which models are bound to change this far out. In general, the blended solution shows precipitation increasing Monday afternoon, becoming widespread and continuing through at least Wednesday. High temperatures also drop quite significantly from about 5 degrees above normal on Monday to as much as 10 to 15 degrees below normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. Make sure to keep up to date with the forecast in the coming days as details become a bit clearer towards the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1048 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 A cold front is moving across the forecast today and will bring lower ceilings and visibilities to many TAF sites as snow moves through. KHDN, KASE, KEGE, and KRIL will be under the gun with conditions varying from 1SM (maybe a bit lower at times) to 5SM in snow while broken to overcast ceilings dropping to below 1K feet, at times, is possible. HRRR guidance continues to show the band of precip moving into the KASE area around 21Z and persisting through 02 to 03Z. TAF follows suit but if the banding continues to drop southward versus staying over the airport, conditions may improve much sooner. Those TAFs not seeing precip will see midlevel broken to overcast skies. Clouds will persist through 12Z tomorrow and slowly lift late morning onwards. Mountain TAF sites may deal with clouds through the day. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...DB/MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 525 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-171230- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 525 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A storm system and associated cold front will move through the area today and tonight, bringing widespread precipitation with light to moderate snowfall in the mountains and a rain/snow mix to some lower valleys. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Dry weather returns Thursday through the weekend. Cooler temperatures Thursday will warm about 10 degrees Friday through the weekend. Another storm system will move through the area Sunday night into Wednesday bringing increasing chances for widespread precipitation. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Generally 4 to 8 inches of snow fell across the area with locally higher amounts of up to 11 inches estimated at the Buckboard Flat SNOTEL site. Wind gusts exceeded 45 mph at times.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 998052.