An upper level storm system played havoc on the weather across south central and southeast Kansas. The temperatures from the surface into the atmosphere were rather persnickety and hovered around the freezing mark making a solid forecast difficult as it led to a sharp delineation between mixed phased precipitation and all snow.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ICT wrote it up.
An upper level storm system played havoc on the weather across south central and southeast Kansas. The temperatures from the surface into the atmosphere were rather persnickety and hovered around the freezing mark making a solid forecast difficult as it led to a sharp delineation between mixed phased precipitation and all snow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 5:58 PM CST, 6 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 558 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 NEAR TERM (through tonight) Unseasonably mild temperatures and strong/gusty south winds will continue overnight, as low pressure continues to strengthen over the High Plains, and a cold front begins to approach from the northwest. The boundary layer remains fairly mixed overnight, and with a 50-60+ kt nocturnal low-level jet around 1500-2000 ft AGL cranking up, thinking the strongest winds may actually occur this evening and overnight, with a rogue 60 mph gust not out of the question. Consequently, will continue the wind advisory through the night for most areas except portions of central and north-central KS. Additionally, this mixy boundary layer combined with low-level warm/moist advection will support unseasonably mild overnight lows in the 40s-50s for many. Kleinsasser SHORT TERM (Wednesday-Thursday night) A potent upper level shortwave is steadily digging south along the CA coastline this afternoon and shows up very nicely on water vapor imagery. This system will continue to dig S/SE into the Four Corners region, then take on a negative tilt as it lifts out across the Central/Southern Plains WED/THU. There are a lot of factors with this system, so let's break down what we know and what we don't. WHAT WE KNOW There is really good ensemble and deterministic model guidance agreement with the ejecting wave (strength, amplitude, track). There is also good agreement with a northward shift of the track of the upper low and, consequently, the track and strength of the SFC low. Model trends have generally "stabilized", so to speak, suggesting we may not see much more in the way of significant changes with the track and strength of the SFC and upper level features. While models differ on precip type (see WHAT WE DON'T KNOW section), there is good agreement on warmer temps aloft at the onset of the heaviest precip, which has increased our confidence in mixed phase precip, and potentially for a longer duration, as it may take several hours for temps aloft to cool. Regardless of precip type, the combination of a coupled jet structure, elevated instability, strong low-level moisture convergence, strong WAA, and a deep layer of moisture will favor moderate to heavy precip rates with this event (both liquid and frozen/freezing). Initially, the instability and strong forcing should favor a round of showers and elevated strong thunderstorms developing, eventually transitioning to a large area of stratiform precip, possibly with some embedded thunderstorms. In fact, it's entirely plausible we'll see some lightning even where wintry precip occurs, especially in the transition zone, which would favor enhanced winter precip rates. Because of this, confidence is moderate to high that we will see 1"/hr+ snowfall rates where the transition to all snow occurs. Where mixed phase occurs, moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet will occur. Fortunately, where moderate to heavy freezing rain occurs, icing may not be as significant due to the heavier rates favoring more runoff, giving less time for accretion. Given good agreement on the strength and track of the SFC low, confidence has increased regarding the strong wind potential on the cold side of the system. Like today, it's expected that 40-50+ mph gusts will occur with the precip. Where this overlaps with snow, areas of blowing/drifting snow will be possible. WHAT WE DON'T KNOW The main differences with model guidance is the temps aloft, which has a huge impact on precip type and snow/ice amounts. Even with the varied guidance on temps aloft, there are generally 2 camps. One favors a swath of heavy winter precip along and northwest of the KS Turnpike/I-35 corridor. The other favors along and southeast of that same corridor. Additionally, models differ some on the depth of moistening within the SGZ as well as in the low-levels. A dry conveyor belt in the low-levels may cut into snowfall rates/amounts along the northern periphery of the precip shield, while the dryslot aloft may favor more freezing drizzle/freezing rain on the southern shield of the precip. The question is where those dry layers will setup during the event. The "sweet spot" for heavier precip rates will be in between those two areas. Because of the increased probability of mixed phase precip, potential snowfall ranges will be larger than ideal, even this close to the event starting. Basically, you can assume the lower- end of the snowfall range where mixed phase is more predominant, and the higher end of the snowfall range where a shorter duration of mixed phase precip occurs. Where the duration of mixed phase precip lasts the longest, accumulating ice and sleet will be followed by accumulating snow. WINTER HEADLINES From a probabilistic standpoint, the Turnpike corridor and the counties immediately on either side of it fall in the middle of both of the above-mentioned winter accumulation camps. It is in that area where confidence is at least 50% in seeing winter storm impacts. With this forecast issuance, then, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch and focus it where confidence in higher-end winter impacts is the highest. This watch may need to be expanded on either side depending on which camp gets more support in later model runs. The key takeaway here is to not focus solely on the watch area for impacts. One additional note about the watch area. While snowfall amounts may fall short of traditional Winter Storm Warning criteria, the combination of snow on top of sleet/ice, as well as the strong winds, may lead to warning-level impacts. Precipitation will wind down from west to east on Thursday, although some drifting snow could linger into Thursday afternoon before the wind subsides. Martin .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 After the mid-week system, the flow aloft briefly flips to more of a dry, milder, zonal flow. Again, any moderation in temps will be offset by areas that see accumulating snow with this upcoming system. Models continue to remain in good agreement with a broad, SW flow regime returning next week, potentially with another risk of convection and winter precip. Martin && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 South winds will remain strong and gusty overnight across the region. Meanwhile low clouds will develop over southeast Kansas Wednesday morning and linger through the day. South winds will remain strong over mainly southeast Kansas during the day on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 THROUGH THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: Will continue the red flag warning through its expiration at 7 PM. Thereafter, cooling temperatures and continued moisture advection will support a gradual humidity recovery back into the 50s-70s percent by around midnight. However, strong/gusty south winds will continue much of the night across central, south-central, and southeast KS, with gusts of 40-50+ mph much of the evening and night. Consequently, thinking grassfire danger will remain elevated much of the night, although probably mostly below critical/extreme levels. WEDNESDAY: Despite increasing dewpoints/humidity, thinking VERY HIGH grassland fire danger will encompass locations generally along/east of the KS Turnpike Wednesday, due to continued warm temperatures and stout/gusty south winds. SUNDAY: Could be looking at a return to VERY HIGH grassland fire danger Sunday, due to breezy south winds and above normal temperatures. However, this fire danger threat will be contingent on how much precipitation and snow cover we receive from the upcoming storm system. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 A widespread 0.50"-1.50" of liquid-equivalent precipitation is forecast with the storm system this week. The axis of heaviest liquid-equivalent precip (1.50"+) has shifted east and is focused over the Ozarks. The highest risk of flooding, then, appears to be focused just to our east. However, the heavier precipitation rates at the onset of the event, especially where thunderstorms occur, could lead to some minor ponding/flooding concerns. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 51 66 22 30 / 0 10 90 80 Hutchinson 48 62 20 31 / 0 10 80 60 Newton 51 62 21 29 / 0 20 90 70 ElDorado 52 65 22 28 / 0 20 90 80 Winfield-KWLD 54 68 25 31 / 0 10 90 90 Russell 35 48 20 36 / 0 0 40 20 Great Bend 38 50 20 35 / 0 0 60 30 Salina 47 54 21 33 / 0 10 70 40 McPherson 48 60 20 31 / 0 10 80 50 Coffeyville 54 66 31 38 / 0 40 90 90 Chanute 54 65 27 33 / 0 40 100 90 Iola 54 64 27 32 / 0 40 100 90 Parsons-KPPF 54 65 29 36 / 0 40 100 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for KSZ053-069>072- 093>096-098>100. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ048>052-067-068- 082-083-091-092. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for KSZ051>053-067>070-082-083-091>093. && SHORT TERM...ADK/RM LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...CDJ FIRE WEATHER...RM HYDROLOGY...RM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 739 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170145- Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase- Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper- Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette- 739 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas, South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Strong south winds will continue through the night across much of the area, with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Please see the latest Wind Advisory for additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Rain and scattered thunderstorms will develop Wednesday evening prior to the onset of the wintry weather. Where thunderstorms occur, a brief, and marginal, severe weather threat may develop. The main threats will be 50 mph wind gusts and hail around dime size. A winter storm will impact the area Wednesday night through Thursday, with accumulating ice, sleet, and snow. Strong winds will accompany the wintry precipitation as well. Please see the latest Winter Storm Watch for additional details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. && For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at: https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 winter storm, 4 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A mixture of 1/2 inch of sleet topped off with up to 5 inches of snow in Harper made for difficult traveling conditions across the county.
A total of 6 inches of snow was reported in Newton.
A total of 4 inches of snow was reported at Cottonwood Falls.
Snow amounts in east Wichita totaled 7.0 inches. Prior to the event transitioning over to all snow, a wintry mix was noted across the county causing travel problems as the precipitation began as freezing rain before transitioning to a sleet and snow mixture and then finally all snow. Other snow amounts across the county included 6.5 inches near Goddard, 6 inches over NW Wichita, 5.5 inches in Haysville, 5.0 inches in both Park City and Derby, and 4.3 inches at the NWS office located at Eisenhower airport.
A total of 3 inches of snow was reported at Kingman.
A total of 4 inches of snow was reported at Yates Center.
Snow amounts in Eureka totaled 7.5 inches at Eureka. Further south in the county a wintry mix was noted with sleet and snow totals of 3.5 inches about 5 miles SSE of Eurka.
Heavy snow fell across the county the greatest of which was 7.6 inches near Rosalia. Other snow reports across the county were 6.5 inches at El Dorado, 5 inches near Andover and Latham, and finally 4 inches near Cassoday.
A public report of 5.5 to 6 inches of snow was reported in Wellington. 5 inches was reported in Argonia.
A picture of 7 inches of snow was sent in from Howard, KS via Facebook.
A mixture of 1/2 inch of sleet topped off with up to 5 inches of snow made for difficult traveling conditions across the county.
A total of 4 inches of snow was reported at Moran.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1008736, 1008733, 1008738, 1008731, 1008740, 1008739, 1008729, 1008730, 1008734, 1008732, 1008735, 1008737.