NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 4:36 PM MST, 7 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 29, 4:36 PM MST, 7 hours 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
436 PM MST Thu Dec 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A long duration storm on our doorstep will begin to
spread snowfall across the forecast area early Friday, and is
expected to continue through the weekend. Significant water
amounts are expected area-wide, especially in the mountains. The
long term forecast remains active, though details and timing of
the next storm are uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Monday)...While much of the region
has experienced a relatively innocuous day of weather ahead of the
incoming atmospheric river, portions of southern Utah have been
seeing steady light snowfall from a weak upper disturbance
associated with a departing trough. These steady light snow
showers should continue to track eastward through about midnight
before tracking east of the Colorado River. Minimal accumulations
and/ or impacts are expected with these showers. The bigger
focus, however, quickly turns over to the Friday through Monday
period as stout Pacific moisture moves into the eastern Great
Basin.
Warm advection along the leading edge of the deeper moisture will
help to kick off generally widespread light to moderate
precipitation across the northern half of the forecast area
starting around the Friday morning commute. For the valley areas,
temperatures will be cold enough across the board for
precipitation to start off as snowfall, even with the more mild
nature associated with these atmospheric river events. Heading
through the day on Friday, however, a transition to a wintry mix,
then to rain is anticipated for the lower lying valleys of
northern and central Utah (i.e. Wasatch Front, Tooele & Rush
Valleys, Sanpete, etc.). For valleys a bit further north and those
at higher elevations/ sheltered by terrain (i.e. Cache Valley and
Wasatch Back) the transition in precipitation type is anticipated
to take place quite a bit later, and may become much more
complex. A later transition to wintry mix or rain will help favor
more noteworthy snow accumulations in these areas, thus, a winter
weather advisory has been issued.
Earlier model guidance was in a general consensus on pushing the
700mb warm frontal boundary north of the Utah- Idaho border by
Friday afternoon, with the exception of the ECMWF which favored
less northward progression of the warm surge. The most recent run
(12Z) of the ECMWF falls more in line with the previous consensus,
which should allow for a transition to rain in the Cache during
the mid to late afternoon on Friday. That said, there is still a
chance that the Cache valley could remain in an environment
favoring snowfall throughout this long duration storm, which would
result in warning level amounts of snow. A similar scenario
revolving around p-type challenges is in place for the Ogden
Valley, however, the uncertainties here are closely tied to the
erosion of the valley cold pools. In the Park City area it is very
likely that snow levels remain low enough that no change in
precipitation type will be seen throughout the event and this area
may be left with up to 2 feet of accumulated snowfall through
Monday. For this reason, have issued a winter storm warning for
the Wasatch Back, with the main emphasis being on the Park City
area.
Precipitation will largely continue through the overnight hours on
Friday and through the day on Saturday for the northern portions
of the CWA. The parent offshore trough associated with this
atmospheric river is currently progged to deepen along the West
Coast and move inland Saturday evening through Sunday. As this
occurs, moisture that will become temporarily shadowed by the high
Sierra will sneak around the south of the range and push into Utah
once again. This time, the stout moisture will be met with strong
synoptic forcing as the negatively tilting upper trough moves into
the eastern Great Basin. This should kick off a round of
widespread precipitation across the remainder of Utah and
southwest Wyoming. It is very likely that areas in the northern
half of Utah and southwest Wyoming see very little, if any, break
in precipitation between the first slug of moisture on Friday
through Saturday and the next arriving overnight into Sunday.
The axis of this upper trough will finally move east of the region
come late Sunday/ early Monday, allowing for much colder air to
spill into Utah and southwest Wyoming. Additional upslope snow
showers will be favored in this post frontal regime through
Monday.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Monday)...Long term forecast period
begins in the wake of a cold frontal boundary which is expected to
have swept through the forecast region by Monday morning. By this
point, the best forcing and moisture is largely expected to have
also departed, with only minimal lingering PoPs through the day,
primarily orographically enhanced as deep flow shifts more
west/northwesterly behind the trough axis. If nothing else, there
is fairly high confidence in a return of colder temperatures
behind the front through early Wednesday.
Though there is at least modest consensus on a quieter period being
maintained through early Wednesday, overall evolution of the
synoptic pattern becomes somewhat murky thereafter. By Wednesday
into Thursday, the forecast region looks to be placed downstream of
the next Pacific system, with deeper southwesterly flow developing.
At a minimum, this is expected to result in temperatures beginning
to warm. Less confidence is noted in the timing/magnitude of
moisture influx, but forecast represents a rough consensus of enough
moisture/forcing returning with the ensuing AR to reintroduce more
widespread PoPs by late Wednesday, and maintain them thereafter.
Given low confidence on the exact degree of warming and the
associated impact to snow levels, p-type is quite uncertain as the
higher PoPs set in. If nothing else, both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14
day outlook continue to support the ongoing active pattern, with
odds favoring above normal precipitation (though also now favoring
near to above normal temperatures as well).
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...A cloud deck around 5000ft is expected
to move in around 03-04z, with a slight chance of -SHSN mainly over
the mountains through 08z. Light snow is expected at the terminal
around 15-16z, with a transition to wintry mix around 18-19z then
rain around 21-22z. With precipitation, high-end IFR to low-end MVFR
VIS is likely. Periods of moderate RA are possible after 00z Sat.
Southerly winds will continue.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers will continue across
southern UT, with rain at KSGU and snow in most other locations.
These showers will largely end by 05-07z. MVFR conditions are likely
in areas of snow, with pockets of IFR possible at higher elevations.
Areas of light snow are possible across higher terrain of northern
Utah between 01-09z. Otherwise, expect conditions to deteriorate
after a heavier precipitation shield moves in from the west,
reaching KENV by ~11z and the Wasatch Front by ~15z. Heaviest
precipitation will be limited to northern UT and southwest WY, where
MVFR VIS and MVFR/IFR CIGs are likely. Most locations will start as
snow, with most valleys transitioning to rain Friday afternoon.
Winds will largely remain out of the south to southwest for most
locations.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Friday for UTZ103-
107.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Monday for
UTZ108.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Monday for
UTZ109.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Monday for
UTZ110>113-117.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for UTZ125.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 5 AM MST Monday for
WYZ021.
&&
Webber / Warthen / Cunningham
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