NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 21, 10:44 AM MST, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 10:44 AM MST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1044 AM MST Wed Dec 21 2022
.UPDATE...CAMS/High Res guidance and even global models continue
to support a high end downslope wind event for Castle Country from
roughly SR-10 and west, with maximum gusts topping out at 80 mph
(potentially higher). Updated the forecast to increase winds
through much of northern Utah to better match current trends as
well as updated the High Wind Warning to show a higher end threat.
Those with interests in these areas including the towns of Ferron,
Orangeville, Castle Dale should rush to secure any outdoor items
to reduce the threat of property damage and prepare for potential
power outages given the cold temperatures building into the
region.
Made additional minor updates to temperatures, snow levels and
snow amounts. Previous discussions follow.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A very cold system will bring unusually cold
temperatures, strong winds and snow to portions of northern and
central Utah through Thursday. Another weak system will impact the
area Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...The flow aloft has shifted more
northwesterly this morning owing to upstream amplification of the
ridge across the eastern Pacific. This is sending a shortwave trough
from western Canada into the northern Rockies. This trough will
continue diving southeast towards the Great Plains into tomorrow. A
very cold airmass is associated with this trough. However, latest
model runs have shifted the upper jet and coldest air a slight bit
farther east. Nonetheless, this storm will still bring cold
temperatures, strong winds, and snow to the area.
Spotty precipitation is already noted on radar imagery spreading
into northern Utah this morning. This is expected to fill in more
during the afternoon hours, bringing snow mainly to the northern
Utah mountains along with valleys, especially those closer to the
Idaho border. Meanwhile, winds will increase through the day, with
H7 flow reaching between 40-60kt across northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming. Meanwhile, a deepening surface low across west-central
Wyoming today will strengthen a south to southwesterly pressure
gradient across northern Utah. This gradient will result in
increasing surface winds which will aid mixing, weakening valley
inversions and allowing for warmer temperatures in many northern
valleys today.
With the snow and winds both increasing through the day, not only
will the mountains see moderately significant snow totals, but
blowing and drifting snow and low visibilities will be common on
exposed ridgelines. Blowing and drifting snow is also expected in
southwest Wyoming where widespread gusts over 50 mph will be likely
this afternoon. With northern Utah being on the western periphery of
the trough, valley snow amounts are not expected to be particularly
large, but the threat of accumulating snow during the evening
commute throughout the northern Wasatch Front and Salt Lake/Tooele
Valleys as the cold front moves through could lead to travel
impacts. While Utah County will also see accumulating snow, much of
it will likely occur after peak commute times.
Snow will wind down quickly from north to south behind the cold
front this evening, and very little in the way of snow is expected
in the southern half of Utah (and nothing in the southern third), as
the surface cold front outruns any upper support. Despite the snow
ending tonight, strong winds will continue, especially along exposed
ridgelines and eastern valleys immediately to the lee of the
terrain. Colder air settling in overnight will combine with
lingering winds to bring very cold wind chills to portions of
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. With models trending
temperatures a slight bit warmer, this threat may not end up being
as widespread, but will be present nonetheless. Afternoon maxes
tomorrow will be much colder compared to today across the north,
ranging from -10 to -20 below normals.
As far as headlines, the only change made this shift was to replace
the High Wind Watch with an Advisory for the western Uinta Basin and
a Warning for Castle Country. Castle Country is more favorable for
strong winds owing to a northwesterly alignment of H7 winds and
surface pressure gradient, 50+kt flow near ridgelines and developing
stable layer, whereas in the western Uinta Basin, the gradient looks
to end up more northerly.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...A couple of trailing shortwave
troughs will bring a chance of snow to mainly northern Utah on
Friday and into the weekend. Lingering moisture will also result in
increased cloud cover during the weekend across northern and central
Utah. The first wave will pass with most of its energy to our south,
though some filaments of vorticity will pass across northern/central
Utah on Friday. There is some uncertainty with how far south this
feature and associated precipitation reaches. EC ensemble members
favor a track further south, which would greatly limit precipitation
across northern Utah, especially in valleys. GEFS members favor a
more northern track, favoring more northern UT precipitation. In
either case, this feature isn't super strong, and will therefore
limit snowfall in even mountain locations to a few inches.
The second trailing shortwave is more likely to impact northern
Utah, though its timing still has plenty of uncertainty. This
feature, however, is expected to be even less dynamic than the
first, and will therefore only bring a small chance for minimal QPF
to the northern mountains on late Saturday and/or early Sunday.
Aside from the shortwaves, a ridge will begin to build over the west
coast over the weekend with great agreement among models. This will
result in warming temperatures from our coldest on Thursday morning
as the ridge continues to build through the weekend. H7 temperatures
are expected to peak on Monday, with a grand ensemble mean of 2C
over KSLC. Uncertainty mainly lies in the amplitude of this ridge,
which would therefore impact how much temperatures warm by Monday.
While Monday is expected to be dry, it is looking more likely that
on Tuesday we could see another impactful storm system moving in,
though keep in mind that Tuesday is still a week away. All ensemble
members at least show that there is an upper-level trough with
northeast Pacific origins that progresses to the CONUS and pushes
the ridge out of the way. By 00z Wednesday, only 12% of ensemble
members still favor a weak ridge, while the others favor more zonal
mid-level flow. Two-thirds of members favor a broad stroke of 0.1-
0.25" QPF across central and northern Utah, likely due to abundant
moisture pushing inland.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly flow will increase through the morning,
with a 75% likelihood of becoming a gusty, westerly crosswind
between 21-00z. Between 00-01z, expect a transition to gusty
northerly flow up to 26kts with a cold front. Additionally, IFR VIS
from snowfall with CIGs at or below 2000ft is likely along the
front, lasting for 1-2 hours. Mountain obscuration will occur
through roughly 05-06z, when skies are expected to largely clear.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Westerly flow will increase
across northern and central Utah ahead of a cold front on Wednesday
morning/mid-day. The highest winds are expected across Uinta Co.,
Wyoming, with gusts up to 45mph possible. This cold front will bring
gusty northerly flow and potentially periods of heavy snowfall and
IFR VIS/CIGs along the front. The front will reach the UT-ID border
around 19-20z, pushing south to reach KPVU around 01-02z. Very
strong surface winds are expected in the lee of the Central Mtns
especially near Castle Country after 08z. These winds could reach up
to 60mph out of the west.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM MST
Thursday for UTZ102>105-107-108.
Wind Chill Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Thursday
for UTZ103-107>109-112-114.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM MST Thursday for UTZ110>112.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM MST Thursday for
UTZ114.
High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Thursday
for UTZ120.
WY...Wind Chill Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Thursday
for WYZ021.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ021.
&&
Kruse/Cheng/Cunningham
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