Low level moisture remained trapped across eastern Utah. This led to the development of dense fog across the Eastern Uinta Basin.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Low level moisture remained trapped across eastern Utah. This led to the development of dense fog across the Eastern Uinta Basin.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 5:55 PM MST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 555 PM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 311 PM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 Lingering moisture in conditionally unstable air under a north- northwesterly flow regime over the Elkhead Mountains and Park Range was responsible for flurries early this afternoon. Latest Day-Snow-Fog RGB composite satellite imagery indicated this activity was rapidly diminishing as moisture was wrung from the airmass. NAM was the only model that indicated showers will continue beyond 00Z this evening which exceeds the 90th percentile of the blended solutions and therefore, removed any mention of showers tonight across the entire forecast area. Dry, cold air will remain over the region through the next 36 hours as flow gradually veers to the west-northwest through Sunday morning. Consequently, expect quiet and cold weather to persist across the area. However, strong inversions over the eastern Uinta Basin are likely to cause low stratus and fog to redevelop tonight and possibly early Sunday as well. Expect temperatures to continue to run around 10 degrees below normal during the period. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 311 PM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 The models agree on tracking the low supported by the Arctic jet through the Los Angeles Basin Sunday morning, across northern Arizona and New Mexico and out onto the Plains by Monday morning. This fast moving system doesn't have much moisture with it, but as the cold core passes over the southern Colorado border Sunday afternoon, we can't rule out a few light snow showers across the southern face of the San Juan Mountains with little if any accumulation. With each successive model run, the ensembles dry the system out a little more. Beyond Monday, the models diverge wildly on how they handle the cold low supported by the polar jet over Alberta Canada. The GFS wants to eject it to the east over Manitoba and Ontario, and replace it with another low descending out of the Northwest Territories by Wednesday that continues descending east of the Rockies into the Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday. The European model stalls the low over Alberta until Wednesday before ejecting it to the southeast into the Ohio Valley by Friday. The Canadian model shoots somewhere in between, stalling the low over Alberta into Tuesday before ejecting it to the east following the GFS Tuesday night and having a shortwave rotate around the west flank of the low and tracking the shortwave southeast along the same track as the European model tracks the low into the Ohio Valley. Though the systems come to similar solutions with a low/shortwave descending east of the Rockies Wednesday into Friday by different paths, the results are that the Arctic jet slides down over the Rockies by midweek where it tends to stay into Christmas weekend. This will bring a series of shortwave disturbances passing to the north and east of the region daily starting Tuesday. Though there is low confidence in the models at this point, the ensembles suggest unsettled weather across the northern mountains beginning Tuesday and extending into the central and southern mountains through Friday. There are widespread precipitation amounts through this period ranging from nothing to a few inches in the higher elevations possible each day. There is a possibility of having impacts to travel due to icy and snowpacked roads Thursday into the weekend. Stay tuned to get the latest forecast as this system develops. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 524 PM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 Currently the few clouds that remain are confined the the higher terrain. Some of the sites may be impacted by low stratus and or fog tonight like KVEL and KHDN. A few other sites may see some of this on a localized scale. Conditions should improve tomorrow and winds remain light and terrain driven. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 303 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-171015- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 303 AM MST Fri Dec 16 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Light snowfall will continue over the northwest Colorado mountains and adjacent high valleys this morning before coming to an end by this afternoon. Most areas should see dry conditions by this afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday This weekend will see dry weather prevail with passing clouds and continued below normal temperatures. Unsettled weather looks to return by mid to late next week as several disturbances move across northwest Colorado, with snow favoring the northern and central Colorado divide. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 dense fog. Local standard time, as filed.
Dense fog was observed across the Eastern Uinta Basin including at the Vernal Regional Airport as visibility was reduced to less than one quarter of a mile for several hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1060867.