Drought in Texas, November 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
953 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Forecast looks to be in good shape tonight. Mostly clear skies and
light south winds are expected overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

We will be treated to rather nice weather conditions this evening
and overnight.  With a light wind, temperatures will cool rather
quickly as sunset occurs. By early Tuesday morning, high humidity
will likely result in a heavy dew most areas, perhaps light fog
across our southeastern counties.

After a cool start early Tuesday, temperatures will warm rather
quickly through the morning. The noticeable difference to the
weather on Tuesday will be a breezy southerly wind by late
morning/afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Convection associated with a shortwave trough moving across South
Texas, and generally east to northeast flow over the western
Gulf, will keep rich Gulf moisture to our south Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

With shortwave ridging moving east of the area early Wednesday
and a trough developing along the west coast, the flow over the
southern Plains will become southwest.  This should at least result
in more high clouds.  A brisk southerly wind will also prevail
through the day Wednesday with some gusts approaching 40 mph
across western Oklahoma. Most areas will maintain modest humidity
through the afternoon with the exception being far northwest
Oklahoma. A few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are
possible.

Somewhat better trajectories along the western Gulf and southern
Texas will allow better moisture to be advected into northern Texas
and Oklahoma on Thursday.  By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will
likely become established across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Rather warm 85h temperatures will likely cap most of the warm
sector, but some storms may form along and near the dryline within
an area of weak height falls.  Some of these storms may impact
portions of western Oklahoma Thursday evening.  Boundary layer
instability will gradually decrease during the evening.

At this time, it appears the weather will be most impactful
Friday/Friday night and Saturday morning/early afternoon.
Deterministic models are rather consistent with the placement of a
closed low over central/northern New Mexico around sunrise Friday
with a cold front near far northwest Oklahoma.  However, they
diverge on the track of the low thereafter.

For now will go with the idea of the front moving slowly across
parts of northern and western Oklahoma during the day (Friday)
with the potential for heavy rainfall along and near the front.
Ahead of the front (warm sector) clouds and grungy weather may
persist during the day with theta-e advection. The exception may
be parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas if drier
air can mix into the area and provide more sunshine. Friday night
into early Saturday, better height falls with the approaching
trough should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms with
perhaps better chances across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma
and parts of western north Texas. Instability appears to remain
weak during this time, but strong shear will result in some
potential for severe storms. Heavy rainfall rates with localized
flooding will continue to be possible.

The upper low is expected to move east of the area by late
Saturday. This will bring an end to the chance of rain and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 953 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

We will continue with VFR conditions through this forecast period.
Light south winds will increase after sunrise on Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  75  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         48  75  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  77  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           46  76  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  78  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         50  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...correction
National Weather Service Norman OK
430 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-312300-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
430 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall...
There is a chance for thunderstorms from late Thursday into
Saturday. Severe weather and heavy rainfall are possible later
Thursday and Friday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions may occur over a small part of
northwestern Oklahoma Wednesday.

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