Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
217 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...
Ingredients for a severe weather episode across the Texas South
Plains later this afternoon and evening are coming together. Low
level moisture and higher instability have transported rapidly
northwest with 50+ surface dewpoint temperatures now over southern
and western parts of the area. CAPEs of 1,000+ Joules per Kilogram
were streaming northward through the western South Plains, per the
latest SPC MLCAPE analysis, with up to 2500 J/Kg near the Pecos
Valley along the TX/NM border. This is as expected. Also, a
subtropical jet was arcing over the Texas Panhandle and apparently
was a key to a thunderstorm that developed in the relatively drier
air in the far western Texas Panhandle late this morning. We expect
additional erosion of the remaining cap over the next couple hours
with more surface heating and added jet lift allowing storms to
rapidly develop to our west and southwest and expand toward our
area. Storms should quickly strengthen and any organized storm will
become supercell and likely severe. Left splits still will be
favored initially across the Caprock late this afternoon, and though
solutions have backed off on initiation near the southern Rolling
Plains, satellite shows a lot of bubbling in the cumulus field and
it looks like it is readying to convect that area as well. Storms
still may transition into a tornado threat by early evening as
hodographs show lengthening and a bit of loopiness.

So, we just awaiting the trickiest part of thunderstorm forecasting
for this area - storm initiation. We also expect to be placed within
a Severe Weather Watch by mid or late this afternoon.

We have retained much of the previous forecast with high chance and
likely thunderstorm chances spreading through the area this evening,
then mainly over the Rolling Plains later tonight. Also retained
mention of locally heavy rainfall, with Bunker right moving vectors
dropping perhaps as low as 10 to 15 knots, but high enough to avoid
a significant flood risk. Storm chances should diminish on the
Caprock by midnight if not earlier with lift pulling east, and then
over the Rolling Plains later tonight. RMcQueen

.LONG TERM...
Long term remains on track with few changes necessitated for this
forecast package this afternoon. The mid/upper-level trough is
forecast to pivot over the central Great Plains by tomorrow
afternoon, with the dryline mixing east of the 100th meridian by
midday. Vertical mixing heights will ascend into the mid-levels on
the Caprock especially; however, the mid-level height gradient will
slacken with southward extent from the core of the jet streak, with
breezy, westerly winds between 15-25 mph and perhaps a few gusts up
to 35 mph depending on location. Fire weather potential may be
mitigated by convection from today as coverage is expected to be
scattered, with soaking rainfall accompanying storms. Therefore,
critical fire weather conditions may be mitigated area-wide despite
the combination of very warm temperatures, breezy winds, and low
relative humidity. A cold front will invade the CWA early Tuesday
morning as the mid/upper-level trough ejects northeastward into the
Upper Midwest, with high temperatures Tuesday nearly 10 degrees
cooler than Monday with the northeasterly breeze veering to the
south late in the day.

Global NWP guidance remains in agreement of a mid/upper-level
cyclone rotating over the central Rocky Mountains and into the
northwestern Great Plains. The current thinking is that the
dryline will mix to near or perhaps east of the 100th meridian,
confining most of the convection potential across the far eastern
zones to perhaps east of the CWA. With that said, PoPs were
trimmed a bit across the Caprock but mostly left alone across the
Rolling Plains due to some uncertainty in dryline position, but
thinking is that it will be farther east as large-scale forcing
for ascent increases over the southern Great Plains. Thunderstorms
that develop Wednesday in the moist sector will become STG-SVR
with shear vectors continuing to favor supercells. Another cold
front will move through the region early Thursday morning, with
temperatures about 10 deg F cooler than Wednesday. Ridging will
build into the region following the departure of the mid/upper-
level cyclone, with benign weather and hotter temperatures as
geopotential heights increase.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

05/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
136 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

TXZ021>044-021845-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
136 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The risk for severe thunderstorms will increase this afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the western South Plains and southwest Texas
Panhandle by mid afternoon, and also over the southern Rolling
Plains. Severe storms will spread through areas on the Caprock late
this afternoon and into the northern Rolling Plains early this
evening. These thunderstorms will have potential for extremely large
hail to the size of softballs, wind gusts to 70 mph or greater, and
a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible across the
region on Monday as hot, dry, and breezy weather returns to the
area.

Thunderstorms, some severe, may return to the Rolling Plains and
southeastern Texas panhandle Wednesday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may return to portions
of the area Friday and Saturday as temperatures rise between 90 and
100 degrees and as relative humidity values fall with breezy,
southwesterly winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected across the area late this afternoon
and evening. Reports are encouraged.