Lack of persistent rain and very dry conditions led to the development of severe drought conditions across the northwestern half of Jim Hogg County in early March that lasted the rest of the month. It also allowed the expansion of severe drought to include virtually all of Zapata County.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of persistent rain and very dry conditions led to the development of severe drought conditions across the northwestern half of Jim Hogg County in early March that lasted the rest of the month. It also allowed the expansion of severe drought to include virtually all of Zapata County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 7, 11:07 PM CST, 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1107 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly low level winds have improved the conditions
across the RGV airports this evening. But believe that this may be
short lived as short term models indicate a surface low is
expected to form along the lower TX coastline later tonight into
Tues. This may tend to hold the ceilings down to IFR levels for
another 24 hours, especially near the coastline. The MFE area may
have the best conditions of the RGV if a W-NW low level wind
persists into tomorrow.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...The post frontal low cld decks and reduced vsbys from
the pcpn is resulting in IFR/MVFR ceilings with the best aviation
conditions moving into the MFE area this afternoon. MVFR
conditions will likely prevail the farther west you go over the
RGV with the lowest ceilings/vsbys located near the coastline
where weak surface troffing is located. Although the ceilings have
been improving somewhat over the last several hours across the RGV
airports, believe that this is temporary and expect the conditions
to degrade slowly throughout the overnight hours as the post
frontal CAA continues. The ceilings may improve gradually back to
MVFR levels once again on Tues as the low level mixing increases.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022/
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The much anticipated
cold front ended up pushing south of the Rio Grande around 12:30
PM this afternoon. Temperatures have rapidly fallen since the
frontal passage, with widespread temperatures currently in the
low-mid 50s across the district. Temps will continue to gradually
fall int the 40s this evening and overnight, but thick cloud cover
and light precipitation will likely maintain (low) temperatures
generally in the low-mid 40s tonight.
The front is expected to stall offshore later this afternoon and
this evening. By this evening, a coastal low will spin-up about 50
nautical miles off the SPI coast, reinforcing northerly winds and
keeping showers/drizzle around through the night and through much
of the morning on Tuesday. Light rain/drizzle chances will end
from southwest to northeast through midday tomorrow as the surface
low moves out of the area and towards the northern Gulf coast.
Unfortunately, low-level stratus will likely remain in place,
keeping things cold and gloomy for much of the day tomorrow.
However, some thinning/breaking of clouds may occur across western
portions of the BRO CWA in the afternoon. This clearing may help
warm temperatures into the lower 60s for portions of Zapata,
Starr, and Jim Hogg Counties. Otherwise, high temperatures will
only warm into the low-mid 50s tomorrow...perhaps potentially
staying in the upper 40s near the coast where cloud cover will be
thickest.
Latest deterministic model runs are in fair agreement a secondary
surface low/trough will form off the northeastern Mexican coast
late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. This will introduce
another wave of light rain and drizzle that will impact mostly
central and eastern counties through sunrise Wednesday.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): The main concern in the long
term will be another solid (Arctic source) cold front diving south
through the Lone Star state Thursday night into Friday, arriving
Friday during the day for the initial SPI Spring Break weekend. The
GFS seems to be faster and colder initially on Friday, and leaned
toward that solution rather then a pure blend. A cloudy and
breezy to windy Friday will bring at best a slight chance of rain
along the front. Temperatures will dive into the 30s across the
CWA Friday night, with lower 40s along the coast. Skies should
clear fairly rapidly on Saturday as the tail end of a mid level
trough axis clears the CWA and strong ridging builds in from
upstream. Much drier air and residual stronger winds Saturday
afternoon could enhance fire weather conditions out west close to
critical values. The weekend will be below normal, temperature
wise. Return flow may begin as early as Sunday as the next short
wave dives out of the Pacific Northwest. Conditions will warm to
near normal by next Monday as high pressure shifts east and return
flow takes hold.
MARINE:
Now through Tuesday Night...Buoy 42020 reported north-northeast
winds around 25 knots gusting to around 31 knots with seas around
10 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 1350 CST/1950 UTC.
Conditions behind this morning's moderate-strong cold front will
keep marine conditions hazardous through tonight and into Tuesday
morning. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Laguna
Madre (until 9 PM this evening) and the Gulf waters (until 9 AM
Tuesday). Winds and seas will improve through the afternoon on
Tuesday, but will still remain adverse (SCEC) through Tuesday
night.
Wednesday through Saturday Night...A cold front due on Friday will
produce strong north winds and high seas Friday into the weekend.
Small craft advisory conditions will develop Friday afternoon on the
Laguna Madre in the wake of the front, with gales forecast on the
Gulf. Could also see brief gales on the Laguna Madre Friday evening
and night. Winds will decrease on Saturday, but high seas and small
craft advisory conditions will linger on the Gulf into Saturday
evening and possibly Saturday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 45 53 49 59 / 40 20 40 30
BROWNSVILLE 45 52 48 62 / 40 10 30 30
HARLINGEN 43 51 45 62 / 40 20 30 20
MCALLEN 44 53 45 63 / 40 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 44 58 43 68 / 30 10 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 50 58 54 58 / 50 20 40 40
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ256-257-
351.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ170-175.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ150-155.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv
Short Term/Aviation...60-Speece
Long Term/Upper Air...69-FarrisHazardous Weather Outlook...Updated National Weather Service Brownsville TX 925 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 TXZ248>257-351-353-082230- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 925 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a High Risk of rip currents at the beach of South Padre Island and Boca Chica Beach today through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A High Risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday at the local beaches. An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches Wednesday and again Friday and Saturday. Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible Friday and Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-082230- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 925 PM CST Mon Mar 7 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore from now through 9 AM CST Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters out to 20 nautical miles offshore from now through 6 AM CST Tuesday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower Texas Coast Tuesday and Wednesday and again Friday and Saturday. A brief period of gale-force winds cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon or Friday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought developed across the northwestern half of Jim Hogg County on March 8th and expanded to include the northwestern half of the county on March 15th. Severe (D2) Drought expanded to include the entire county on March 22nd due to the lack of significant rainfall.
Severe (D2) Drought expanded across virtually all of Zapata County on March 8th and expanded to include all of the county on March 15th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1002492, 1007387.