High Wind in Texas, June 12, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR continues for the next 24 hours amidst hot and breezy
conditions. Surface gusts diminish overnight though south winds
near 15 kt will persist beneath increasing LLWS at all terminals.
Shear magnitudes near 35 kt as low as 500 ft AGL is expected at
KLBB and KPVW, and near 40 kt as low as 800 ft AGL at KCDS. LLWS
will dissipate after sunrise Monday as it mixes down to the
surface, resulting in another day with southerly wind gusts up to
30 kt at all terminals. Check density altitude.

Sincavage

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022/

UPDATE...
Added dry thunder into the grids across the northwestern zones
through 13/01Z. CCLs are very high, though a few cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes have been detected by NLDN with low flash
density rates on GOES-East GLM data. Dry thunderstorm coverage
should remain isolated before virga diminishes entirely by dark.

Sincavage

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022/

SHORT TERM...
A welcome transition to less intense heat awaits the region tomorrow
as a mid-level high departs toward the Ozarks ahead of diminishing
heights and thicknesses. Until then, we could still see an axis of
high-based virga showers organize across eastern NM and into the SW
TX Panhandle late this afternoon. This region is within a broad zone
of superadiabatic low-level lapse rates of 10-10.5C coincident with
DCAPEs of nearly 2000 J/kg, so locally strong or severe wind gusts
remain possible under any of these innocuous virga showers before
they taper after sunset.

Surface troughing looks to set up farther N and W on Monday allowing
winds to back more southerly while directing an improved fetch of
modified Gulf moisture over much of the region. Add to this a lack
of downslope winds and we should see a solid 3-5 degrees of
improvement over today's record-breaking heat which puts us below
Heat Advisory thresholds. A slightly better round of high-based
convection may impact our extreme W-NW zones by late afternoon as
convective temps are met near a diffuse dryline. Improved PWATs
around 0.9" could net some very light rainfall, but virga should
again be the predominant mode.

Very breezy southerly winds on Monday along with min RH values of
15% or lower could raise fire weather concerns on the Caprock where
fuels are becoming more stressed. However, limited fire activity
thus far suggests fuels may still be sufficiently moist.

LONG TERM...
Tuesday will be dominated by upper troughing to our west and upper
ridging to our east with the upper ridge having the most influence
over the region. Temps should slowly decline through the week while
still remaining in the 90s to around 100. This pattern will dominate
through mid week before the upper trough deamplifies allowing the
upper ridge to move back over the central CONUS. While this will
warm temps slightly going into the weekend, temps should still
remain cooler than what has been experienced across the region this
weekend. This will be in part to the center of the upper high being
to our north and east. Not having the upper high directly overhead
will allow for the possibility, albeit a low probability, of
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the FA each afternoon. Our
western zones are favored for the best chances. Chances look to
possibly increase by late next weekend into early next week. Models
are beginning to be in better agreement with having weak
disturbances rotating around the outer edge of the upper high just
off to our east that could allow for disorganized convection to
develop. Surface moisture should not be an issue as surface flow
will be out of the southeast and will help keep dewpoints in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

TXZ021>044-131615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect today from 1 PM until 9 PM for all
areas. Temperatures of 105 to 110 degrees will be commonplace. This
heat along with low humidities and drying fuels will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions generally along and west of Highway
385. Later this afternoon and evening, locally strong wind gusts over
50 mph and blowing dust may develop on the Caprock from virga.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated fire weather conditions may develop in the western South
Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle on Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.