Tornadoes and Hail in South Dakota, June 12 to 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
924 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #353 has been issued for a good portion
of the CWA through 3 AM CDT, for thunderstorms capable of large
hail and damaging winds. There is a nearly stationary frontal
boundary splayed out from north of Aberdeen down to south of Rapid
City, which is serving as a focus for convection this evening. The
storms coming out of UNR's CWA have the potential to produce "all
hazards", as well as torrential rainfall. There is a low level jet
developing, it's nose for best low level forcing, forecast to be
anchored along or just south of this frontal boundary overnight,
helping the continuance of low level moisture advection northward
into overnight thunderstorms as they work east. Aloft, there is
also substantial mid-level WAA and steepening lapse rates to
support convection. The amount of low level and deep layer shear
available tonight points to eventual transition into (one or more)
a strong wind-producing squall line. There is also additional
potential thunderstorm development/evolution further back across
the northern high plains that will have to be monitored during the
late night early Monday morning hours, in case any of it tries to
clip north central South Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 719 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

The main challenge in the near term is the chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms tonight, and again Monday night. Upper level
ridging currently over the region will get pushed to the east
tonight as a shortwave trough slides across the area. As it exits to
the east Monday morning, ridging will rebuild over the area before a
more southwesterly flow sets up Monday night ahead of a western U.S.
trough.

At the surface, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
western South Dakota this evening in association with a
strengthening low pressure system, then track eastward through the
overnight hours. Instability wanes a bit after sunset, but does look
to increase again over the eastern CWA overnight, and will be
associated with a 30 to 40 knot low level jet and 50 to 60 knots of
bulk shear. Most of the CAMs indicate storms reaching the western
CWA around 03Z, then tracking eastward and exiting the CWA around
12Z Monday. As the low approaches the region on Monday, very warm
and moist air will be ushered northward into the region, with
dewpoints in excess of 70 degrees during the afternoon. The daytime
hours look to be dry as H7 temps of +16C to +18C will effectively
cap off any convective development. This capping inversion does
not weaken much across the east Monday night, but does across the
west, therefore as the front associated with the low moves
through, may see some post frontal convection develop late Monday
night. Should any storms become severe tonight or Monday night,
the main threats will be strong winds and large hail. One other
concern for Monday will be high heat indicies as temps in the 90s
combine with dewpoints in the 70s. Right now, the parts of the
southern CWA will be the most likely to see heat indicies above
100 degrees, so will include that area in a Heat Advisory.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s. Highs on Monday will
range from the mid 80s across the far north, to the mid 90s across
the south. Lows Monday night will range from the upper 50s across
north central South Dakota, to the lower 70s across far northeastern
South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

The period begins on Tuesday with an area of low pressure and cold
front crossing the region. A very warm EML with 700 mb temps of +16C
should limit the overall severe potential in this CWA. Showers,
along with a few thunderstorms will be possible post frontal.
Significantly less humid air will move into the CWA behind the cold
front with dew points dropping into the 40s, to the low 50s by
Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, an area of low pressure and upper
level trough will be located over south central Canada with westerly
winds, low humidity, and mostly dry conditions over the CWA. The
upper level trough pushing east on Thursday will allow an upper
level ridge to build over the Rockies and into the Northern Plains
by Friday. The strong upper level ridge will bring heat and humidity
back into the Northern Plains this weekend with high temperatures
reaching the 90s on Saturday and Sunday. Some locations in central
and north central SD could reach 100 degrees on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 719 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact all four terminals
at some point over the next 6 to 9 hours. KPIR/KMBG are up first,
with convection approaching from the west. Similar to last night,
there will be a large hail/damaging wind threat with storms that
move into the KPIR/KMBG terminals. Later tonight (at or after
05Z), KABR/KATY may get into the act, with the biggest threat
likely being strong/damaging winds, and also torrential rainfall.
Aside from sub-VFR conditions in/near thunderstorms tonight, VFR
cigs/visbies are expected through ~12Z Monday before any potential
for a sub-VFR stratus deck sets up. By the end of the TAF valid
period, conditions should be wholly back to good VFR territory.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for SDZ018-019-022-
     037-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
428 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-130930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
428 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 /328 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and move across
central South Dakota late this evening and track east into northeast
South Dakota and west central Minnesota during the overnight hours.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats from these
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot temperatures in the 90s will combine with high humidity values
to produce heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees Monday
afternoon across parts of south central and northeast South Dakota.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across portions of central South Dakota by late Monday evening into
Tuesday morning. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will
be possible with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.