Abundant moisture, in combination with strong daytime heating, provided the fuel for robust thunderstorm development along a quasi-stationary front located across the southern Texas Panhandle late on the afternoon of the 31st. Strong instability and moderate wind shear allowed the storms which formed to quickly become severe and gain mid-level rotation.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Abundant moisture, in combination with strong daytime heating, provided the fuel for robust thunderstorm development along a quasi-stationary front located across the southern Texas Panhandle late on the afternoon of the 31st. Strong instability and moderate wind shear allowed the storms which formed to quickly become severe and gain mid-level rotation. The rotating storms were efficient at generating hail, including very large hail at times. Several locations near Memphis (Hall County) and Tulia (Swisher County) reported hail as large 3 to 3.5 inches in diameter. The giant hail, bigger than baseballs, destroyed windshields on numerous vehicles on US Highway Highway 287 in Hall County. The intense and excessive rainfall flooded out a number of roadways across the southeast Texas Panhandle, including in and around Memphis. This was a continuation of an event that began on 31 May.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 11:41 PM CST, 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .AVIATION... Ongoing severe thunderstorms currently south of KCDS and east of KPVW expected to continue through about 08z. Storms are expected to remain clear of both KLBB and KCDS, with additional thunderstorms expected to move over KPVW within the next few hours as convection continues to develop westward. Expect potential gusty and variable winds at both KCDS and KPVW through the overnight hours with outflow from convection. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually dissipate during the early morning hours. Complicated forecast for the daytime hours on Wednesday. Overall, MVFR CIGs are expected during the morning and early afternoon at KLBB and KPVW, potentially affecting KCDS as well. Lingering outflow boundaries may result in erratic surface wind fields during the morning, but generally prevailing out of the ENE. Thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon hours at all terminals, but considerable uncertainty currently exists regarding overall areal coverage. Expect frequent TAF amendments through this afternoon. /DWK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022/ SHORT TERM... 18Z upper air analysis depicts a vertically stacked/occluding cyclone over the southern Manitoba/Ontario border, with a trailing mid-level cold front extending west-southwestward into the central Great Plains and into the Great Basin as per 12Z 500 mb objective maps and recent RAP analysis. A secondary cyclone, although less amplified, was centered over the central Great Basin with a series of smaller-scale shortwave perturbations detected on the latest water vapory imagery that were rotating east-northeastward towards the region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was anchored from southwest-to-northeast across the CWA along a line from Denver City to Tulia and extending towards the I-40 corridor as per recent West Texas Mesonet data and the shallow cumulus field demarcating its position. The dryline intersects the quasi-stationary front across far southeastern New Mexico, and is not expected to propagate eastward this afternoon as the airmass becomes increasingly barotropic with southward extent from the front and as larger-scale forcing for ascent remains displaced over the west-central Great Plains region. West Texas Mesonet data and WSR-88D VWPs from KLBB indicate that surface-to-low-level flow is parallel to the frontal position across the moist sector, with winds shifting to the north in wake of the front with speeds generally between 10-20 mph across the post- and pre-frontal sectors with steady pressure tendencies. This has resulted in weak convergence in vicinity of the stalled front, evident by the shallow cu field despite the influx of strong, diabatic heating. The 12Z MAF RAOB sampled a very moist boundary-layer with dewpoints in the upper 60s and a mean mixing ratio of 14.6 g/kg that was advecting northward. South of the quasi-stationary front, a plume of dewpoints ranging from the lower 60s across the Caprock and into the middle-upper 60s in the Rolling Plains is present with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, contributing to strong-extreme thermal instability as MLCAPE nears 3,000 J/kg on the latest RAP analysis. Confidence in this prognostication with respect to the magnitude of MLCAPE across the moist sector is high based off the observed morning sounding from WFO MAF. Effective bulk wind differences (EBWDs) are modest as the CWA remains beneath the glancing influence of the mid- and high-level jet streaks to the north, with EBWDs near 40 kt in addition to the 850-500 mb wind vectors remaining boundary-parallel. Isolated to widely-scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form across the South Plains with mean storm movement governed by advection, with storms quickly becoming severe as the large, upward-directed accelerations accentuated by wide updrafts offsets the modest shear. Significant/2"+ diameter hail is expected to occur in addition to severe-caliber gusts as cells move east-northeastward. Across the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle and into the northern Rolling Plains, scattered convection is expected to develop mid-to-late afternoon as low-level convergence maximizes while quickly becoming severe. Precipitable water content is anomalously high, as per 12Z MAF RAOB and recent GOES-East Total Blended Precipitable Water imagery. Initial storm characteristics are expected to be multi- and supercellular, with weak storm-relative flow throughout the LCL-EL layer which will enhance precipitation-loading within the wide updrafts. Severe to potentially significant-severe/65+ kt gusts are expected as convection morphs into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) with embedded mesocyclones. MCS movement will be slow, and dictated largely by the combination of intense cold pools and the isolated to widely-scattered cells to the southwest merging with it which will augment the possibility of a forward-propagating MCS. A short-lived tornado risk will accompany any storm merger or within any mesoscale convective vortex that develops; however, the strong/cold downdrafts and potential steeply-sloped outflow boundaries will eventually undercut surface-based inflow parcel trajectories, ultimately resulting in the demise of the MCS as theta-e advection weakens and diabatic stabilization occurs. Severe convection should wane/exit the northeastern zones altogether near 01/06Z. The low-level jet will strengthen overnight with the stalled front remaining positioned in vicinity of the TX PH and South/Rolling Plains region, though the exact position of the front may be affected by convective outflows from the decaying MCS. The airmass is forecast to be in a similar state tomorrow ahead/south of the front, with the center of the sub-tropical ridge retrograding over Mexico along with a shortwave trough pivoting across the central Great Plains, causing mid- and high-level flow to veer. The stalled front will begin to transition into a cold front and move southward across the CWA by the mid-afternoon hours, with scattered, severe convection expected to develop with a few supercells possible across the South Plains before cold pools merge as frontogenetical forcing increases. Localized flash flooding will once again be possible, in addition to the potential for severe-caliber hail (possibly 2"+) and wind events. Sincavage LONG TERM... Precipitation chances will continue through the rest of the week after Wednesday afternoon with additional heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances. The cold front will continue to push through the rest of the area Wednesday evening with expected widespread convection ongoing through the evening hours. The weather pattern will look slightly different for the rest of the week after that. Zonal flow will be overhead on Thursday with weak short wave ridging moving over the area. Southeasterly low level upslope flow will dominate the lower levels in the post frontal air mass. Furthermore, a weak short wave moving through the flow with the above conditions will promote higher terrain convection in eastern New Mexico. However, convection may struggle to reach far into West Texas. Better lift for convection will exist from the Permian Basin into Far West Texas and the Big Bend as a stronger upper level jet streak noses into that area. Additionally, instability will mostly be elevated on Thursday with cool and cloudy conditions. Severe chances may be better on Friday with upper flow slightly more backed. Much better instability will be available with better low level moisture and warmer surface temperatures. Additionally, another weak short wave may be moving through the flow aloft initiating thunderstorms again on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico. However, this convection would stand a better chance at progressing farther across the South Plains for the aforementioned reasons. CIPS analog guidance highlights Friday as a higher probability day for severe weather over Thursday. A sloshing dryline will return this weekend but convective chances are doubtful at the moment with temperatures rising back well above seasonal averages. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 30/09/01
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1129 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 TXZ021>044-011630- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1129 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon, especially across the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. Chances for severe thunderstorms will also increase across the South Plains late this afternoon, generally near and east of the Interstate 27 corridor. Thunderstorms across the region will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph and very large hail greater than two inches in diameter. A tornado or two will be possible as well. Heavy rainfall will result in localized flash flooding due to the slow movement of thunderstorms, particularly across the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle into the evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorm chances will continue on Wednesday. Some storms may be severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Localized flash flooding will be possible due to heavy rain. Thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible again on Thursday and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
830 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0817 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW MEMPHIS 34.71N 100.56W
05/31/2022 HALL TX TX DOT
A PORTION OF FM 1041 WAS REPORTED WASHED OUT NEAR
HIGHWAY 256 DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2200080
WCIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
833 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0815 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SE MEMPHIS 34.67N 100.48W
05/31/2022 HALL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
US 287 NEAR FM 1619 IS FLOODED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2200081
WCIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
842 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0807 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S PLASKA 34.59N 100.65W
05/31/2022 HALL TX EMERGENCY MNGR
A PORTION OF FM 2472 NEAR PLASKA HAS BEEN WASHED OUT
FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2200082
WCIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 PM HAIL PLAINVIEW 34.19N 101.72W
05/31/2022 M1.50 INCH HALE TX SOCIAL MEDIA
PHOTO OF PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL SHARED ON TWITTER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2200083
DWKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1025 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1022 PM HAIL LOCKNEY 34.12N 101.44W
05/31/2022 E1.75 INCH FLOYD TX BROADCAST MEDIA
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2200084
DWKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1014 PM HAIL PLAINVIEW 34.19N 101.72W
05/31/2022 E2.00 INCH HALE TX BROADCAST MEDIA
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2200085
DWKThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:09 UTC.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An NWS cooperative weather observer reported golf ball size hail approximately nine miles southeast of Floydada.
The automated surface observing system at Childress Municipal Airport measured a wind gust of 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, June 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018956, 1018957.