Flash Flooding and Flood in Kansas, June 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

The main low pressure system is over the Northern Plains with a
portion stretching back to the Great Basin. A cold front associated
with this system has stretched from the Texas Panhandle to along the
central Kansas/Oklahoma border into central Missouri. This front
will be the focus for convective development this evening. There is
initial development visible in western Oklahoma. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for a few counties in south
central Kansas, and this area may be expanded to the east and north
depending on further convective development. If you have outdoor
plans this evening, make sure to stay weather aware and have an idea
of where you would take shelter if needed. When thunder roars, go
indoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Highlights:

1) Showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday

2) Localized flooding through early Thursday

3) Cooler

Change: Modified precipitation chances tonight-Wed

Headlines:

1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10PM
2) Flood Watch thru midnight Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday. The cold
front as mentioned above should be the initial focus for convection
this evening with short term models showing storms moving
in/expanding in coverage around 5-7PM. SPC did tweak their outlook
for today removing the enhanced risk from southeast Kansas with the
better threat in western Oklahoma and parts of the Texas Panhandle.
Potential still exists for strong to severe thunderstorms with the
possibility of up to golf ball sized hail and 60 mph winds in south
central and southeast Kansas. Initial supercells could pose the
potential for a tornado, but the threat is quite low. The activity
is expected to fill in and become more linear. Elevated storms will
become the factor to the north and west of the front late this
evening and tonight.

Localized flooding is a concern especially across south central and
southeast Kansas with the possibility of training showers and storms
over those areas. Precipitable water values are on the increase. The
Flood Watch covers this well. Most locations where the heavier
rainfall is expected received minimal if any precipitation in the
last 24 hours. This will become the concentrated area for this
evening and tonight with potential for one to two inches; however,
thunderstorms can certainly overachieve on precipitation amounts.
Thus locally higher amounts are anticipated. Models disagree on the
coverage for Wednesday which in turn challenges when chances will
move out. General consensus is that precipitation should be gone by
Thursday morning. Precipitation chances have been tweaked somewhat
to better account for the latest trends.

Cooler air moves in for Wednesday through Friday with Wednesday
being the coolest day of the week thanks to rain and cloud cover.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to range from 10 to 20 degrees
below seasonal normal on Wednesday when highs range from the lower
60s to mid 70s. Thursday and Friday should be a bit warmer as a
ridge moves in, but the temperatures are still forecast to be about
5 to 10 degrees below normal. Only minor changes were made to the
ongoing forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Highlights:

1) Weekend warm up

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms

After a cooler week, the weekend will offer a warm up but
essentially near the seasonal normal values (lower 80s). Models are
showing a couple of short waves through the weekend. This could
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. These waves don't look
very impressive at this point. There are chances for showers and
storms throughout the extended. If you have outdoor plans for the
weekend, stay tuned as changes are likely. Minor tweaks were made to
the extended part of the forecast as the ongoing one appeared mainly
representative.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Numerous thunderstorms will continue to move slowly eastward
overnight across mainly southeast Kansas. Otherwise some
showers/storms look to redevelop during the morning hours on
Wednesday with lingering low clouds and north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  65  52  72 /  80  80  40   0
Hutchinson      59  63  49  72 /  80  80  30   0
Newton          60  64  51  71 /  80  80  40   0
ElDorado        61  66  52  70 /  80  80  50   0
Winfield-KWLD   63  71  54  71 /  80  80  60  10
Russell         54  63  45  74 /  30  80  20   0
Great Bend      55  61  46  72 /  40  80  20   0
Salina          58  63  49  74 /  40  70  20   0
McPherson       58  63  48  71 /  70  80  30   0
Coffeyville     66  74  57  73 /  90  80  70  10
Chanute         64  74  56  72 /  90  80  60  10
Iola            64  72  55  71 /  90  80  60  10
Parsons-KPPF    65  74  57  73 /  90  80  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for KSZ052-053-068>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-020445-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1144 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across southeast
Kansas during the overnight hours. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall will also become a threat overnight across southeast
Kansas. Please check latest flood statements, flood watch, and
severe thunderstorms watch for the latest information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for thunderstorms will linger through Wednesday mainly
across south central and southeast Kansas. While severe storms are
not expected, a couple of strong storms with small hail and locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. There is potential for localized
flooding to continue into even early Thursday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday through Monday.
However, the risk for organized severe storms appears low for now.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     HAIL             1 W NEW ALBANY          37.57N 95.95W
05/31/2022  E1.25 INCH       WILSON             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1200 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W CHANUTE             37.67N 95.49W
05/31/2022  M75 MPH          NEOSHO             KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED ON THE CHANUTE MARTIN JOHNSON ASOS.

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

KSZ051>053-010545-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-Chase KS-
1211 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern McPherson,
northwestern Chase and Marion Counties through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1211 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mcpherson to near Hillsboro to 5 miles
west of Florence. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mcpherson, Hillsboro, Marion, Galva, Canton, Florence, Goessel,
Lincolnville, Ramona, Lehigh, Durham, Tampa, Lost Springs, Cedar
Point, Hymer, Mcpherson Airport, Roxbury, Marion Lake and Pilsen.

This includes Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 51 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9663 3813 9691 3824 9728
      3826 9775 3861 9762 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 207DEG 18KT 3837 9761 3833 9724 3827 9702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

KSZ093-010545-
Cowley KS-
1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Cowley County
through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winfield, moving east to northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail and torrential rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arkansas City, Winfield, Burden, Dexter, Atlanta, Geuda Springs,
Cambridge, Winfield City Lake and Strother Field Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 9715 3748 9675 3748 9652 3715 9652
      3708 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 250DEG 27KT 3720 9694

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

KSZ051-052-010600-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-
1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
McPherson and northwestern Marion Counties through 100 AM CDT...

At 1226 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Galva, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail and torrential rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Galva, Canton and Roxbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 9719 3833 9744 3840 9760 3861 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 211DEG 16KT 3843 9750

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     HAIL             2 NE GALVA              38.41N 97.51W
06/01/2022  U1.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

MWM