Heat in Texas, July 24 to 29, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1152 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Late update to better monitor conditions going into the afternoon
with top of the hour readings in the lower 90s northern half where
we have more sunshine. Low clouds are scattering along and south
of I-20 and air temps in the upper 80s to 90. So over all, fairly
homogeneous with our heat index readings mostly in the upper 90s.
As dew points slowly fall, it will be close later today. 24 hours
ago we were 2-3 degrees cooler, and dew points are plus or minus
1-2. However, the drier soil at DeQueen and El Dorado have them
some 6 and 4 degrees warmer, but still upper 90s HX respectively
speaking. The only few mid 70s dew points are all at an HX of 101
for Natchitoches, Monroe and Minden.

Southwest winds are running 5 to 10 mph with additional mixing
down of drier air as our air temps rise. Thus most sites are
still looking just south of 105 at peak, but a few sites more
sheltered perhaps in a river valley may get to that point, just
not much above the criteria of two hours for two days. Going
forward into this last week of July with air temps edging upwards
and pushing HX readings over today's near marginal realm. So
anticipating more sites like DeQueen and El Dorado this week
pushing back over 105, but maybe not area wide. If they go over
the edge before next forecast issuance we will issue for the heat
advisory for remaining late afternoon. Otherwise it will be a
daily numbers game to be determined overnight after accessing the
highs and peak HX for the previous day. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Upper-ridge at the start of the period from Monday night through
Thursday to maintain a stagnant pattern characterized by hot and
mainly dry conditions areawide. Afternoon high temperatures are
forecast to approach 100 degrees each day with overnight lows in the
mid to upper 70s. Additionally, heat index values will border on
advisory criteria of 105 degrees each day. Precipitation from Monday
through Wednesday will be very scarce and limited to diurnally
driven sea-breeze convection across deep east Texas and west-central
Louisiana.

A more progressive pattern takes shape from Thursday into the
weekend  as a weak frontal boundary drifts south and lingers across
the ArkLaTex while at the same time the upper-ridge breaks down
allowing for a weak trough to become parked across the region. The
combination of the front, increased instability associated with the
trough, and high precipitable water values due to low-level
southerly flow, will allow for increased rain chances across the
ArkLaTex through the weekend. Additionally, expect slightly cooler
temperatures areawide with highs ranging from the upper 80s across
portions of southeast Oklahoma and southern Arkansas to the lower to
mid 90s elsewhere by Saturday. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

For the 24/12z TAFs...Satellite imagery from early this morning is
showing some lower clouds generally along and south of the I-20
corridor. Surface observations are showing some patchy fog for
areas of deep east Texas, but nothing has been showing up near any
terminals so I have taken all mention of BR out at this time.
Winds have generally been out of the south to southeast early this
morning. They should remain out of the south to southeast through
the day today, with some breezy conditions later today and into
this evening with sustained winds around 10 kts and gusts up to
15 to 20 kts possible. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  78 101  78 /  10   0  10   0
MLU  98  77  98  76 /  10  10  20   0
DEQ 101  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
TXK 101  79 101  79 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  97  76  97  76 /   0   0  10   0
TYR 101  78 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 100  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFK 100  75 101  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
512 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-251015-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
512 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hot and mainly dry conditions expected today with afternoon high
temperatures forecast to climb to near 100 degrees across much of
the ArklaTex. High humidity values will allow for heat index readings
to range from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions to persist through the middle of the work week with
heat index values possibly exceeding 105 degrees at times. Otherwise,
showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late in the work
week and into the weekend with somewhat cooler temperatures in the
low to mid 90s possible by Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.