Heat in Texas, July 16 to 18, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1152 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Weather patterns like these are just the worst. Not only from a
heat standpoint, but from an AFD standpoint as well. I'm grasping
at straws when it comes to ways to mix up my discussions with
these summer ridge patterns. "Ridge, hot, no rain. Fin."

I could legitimately end my discussion there and you'd probably
get the point. Upper-level ridging will hang on strong over the
next 36-hours, with temperatures reflecting as such. Afternoon
highs will begin to creep up today, with most locations expected
to see highs in the upper-90s. By tomorrow, many locations could
be over triple-digits once again. Hardly any relief is expected
overnight tonight, with lows only dropping into the mid to
upper-70s. Precipitation also looks to be a figment of ones
imagination, as subsidence with the ridge will damper this
activity. There is a chance for an afternoon thunderstorm on
Sunday in our far SE zones, but these chances will once again only
be limited to seabreeze activity.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Northerly flow on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge
centered over the Four Corners Region will slowly push a cold front
south across the Plains and towards the forecast area. The front is
only expected to move about as far south as the Red River between
Oklahoma and Texas, possibly clipping portions of Southeast Oklahoma
and Southwest Arkansas, before stalling by late Monday. At the same
time, the southern end of a upper-level trough axis that extends
northeast into the Ohio River Valley and New England will also move
across the area. There should be a chance for at least a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms with these two features Sunday
night and into Monday. However, forcing for ascent is expected to be
quite weak, so convective development will be quite limited. As the
trough moves over Northeast and North Central Louisiana Monday
afternoon, rain chances may improve slightly over those areas with
the addition of diurnal instability. Unfortunately, dry conditions
should once again return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday as
the upper ridge expands and begins to move east. The GFS suggests
the ridge will weaken and allow another upper trough and weak front
to bring more improved chances for convection on Thursday. The
ECMWF, which has shown better run-to-run consistency and is also
more consistent with previous forecast packages, depicts a stronger
ridge and much lower chances for rain.

The main story during the long-term forecast period will be the
return of the heat. As chances for precip taper off once again and
subsidence from the upper ridge increase, temperatures will creep
upward each day. Daytime highs above the century mark are likely in
most locations except for our eastern-most zones by Tuesday.
Combined with the high humidity, dangerously hot conditions are
likely areawide Tuesday through Friday.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

For the 16/18Z TAF update, a drier air mass aloft will suppress
SHRA/VCTS convection in our entire airspace, maintaining VFR
conditions through the period. Light southerly surface flow will
slacken to at or below 10kts after 17/03Z, regaining speed by the
end of the period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 100  79  99 /   0  10  10  10
MLU  75  96  76  95 /   0  20  10  30
DEQ  74 101  75 102 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  79 101  79 102 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  74  95  75  95 /   0  10  10  20
TYR  78 101  79 102 /   0   0  10   0
GGG  77 101  78 101 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  76 100  76  98 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
538 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
538 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon. The best chances for rain will be Monday afternoon
across Northeast and North Central Louisiana. Chances for isolated,
afternoon thunderstorms will be limited to portions of North Central
Louisiana on Thursday and Friday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to return to the region by
Monday as heat index values climb above 105 degrees. Dangerous hot
conditions are likely across much of the area Wednesday through
Friday as daytime high temperatures climb into the triple digits and
peak heat indices rise above 110 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

09