m. CDT on this Saturday evening, prompting assorted reports of large hail (up to baseball size) and damaging winds (estimated up to 80 MPH) and disrupting activities at a handful of local county fairs.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Several strong to severe thunderstorms, some that eventually merged into a compact mesoscale convective system (MCS), rumbled southeastward across various parts of South Central Nebraska mainly between 6:30-11:30 p.m. CDT on this Saturday evening, prompting assorted reports of large hail (up to baseball size) and damaging winds (estimated up to 80 MPH) and disrupting activities at a handful of local county fairs. The most prominent narrow swath of severe activity cut through the heart of the 24-county area, focusing within 10 miles either side of a line extending from Ord-Cairo-Hastings-Davenport as an initially isolated supercell merged with a separate cluster of severe storms to its west, forming the aforementioned MCS. During it's more supercellular phase near/north of the Highway 92 corridor (mainly 6:30-8:30 p.m. CDT), a combo of both damaging winds and large hail occurred, featuring measured gusts as high as 74 MPH at Ord airport and hail ranging from golf ball to baseball size particularly within western Howard and far northwestern Hall counties. In Howard County, a stripe of significant damage to crops and windows/siding was noted from around Farwell to west of Dannebrog. As this MCS reached areas near/south of Interstate 80 (primarily 9-11 p.m. CDT) the hail threat waned but damaging winds continued, evidenced by a measured 58 MPH gust at Hastings airport and unofficial mesonet-measured gusts of 67 MPH near Nelson and 62 MPH near Davenport. Within Clay County, tree branches were downed in several communities including Trumbull, Deweese, Fairfield and Edgar. Shortly before this storm complex exited the local area to the southeast between 11:00-11:30 p.m. CDT, wind intensity ramped down to slightly sub-severe levels within southern/eastern Thayer County. Although far from the only outdoor event interruption of the evening within South Central Nebraska, one of the more noteworthy ones associated with this MCS involved the Adams County Fairfest in Hastings, where an ongoing Nelly concert was cut short and an evacuation of the grounds was successfully initiated shortly before the storm struck. Although rain totals of 1-2 inches were common within the heart of the MCS track (overall highest inF Clay County), any flooding was of the very short term/nuisance variety. To the west of the aforementioned primary swath of severe weather, a few separate and smaller-scale areas of strong to severe storms impacted portions of primarily Furnas, Buffalo and Dawson counties mainly between 7-9 p.m. CDT. In Furnas County, a relatively small but intense supercell roamed northern and eastern parts of the county, with estimated 80 MPH winds destroying an outbuilding and grain bin at a farmstead between Holbrook and Arapahoe. Meanwhile, other semi-discrete convection within parts of Buffalo/Dawson counties yielded a few wind reports including a mesonet-measured 64 MPH gust near Kearney and a slightly sub-severe 54 MPH speed near Lexington. The eastern reaches of this activity eventually merged with the primary MCS as it charged across the I-80 corridor and into the Hastings area.
Finishing with some details regarding the evolution and meteorology behind this event, the initial development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the mid-late afternoon hours occurred in separate areas slightly off to the north and also west of South Central Nebraska, with this early activity gradually increasing in both coverage/intensity as it evolved into the local area. In the mid-upper levels, forcing was fairly weak, featuring only subtle shortwave energy working into the region in west-northwest flow, directed around the northeastern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the Four Corners region. At the surface, there were also no significant features of note locally, with most of South Central Nebraska simply reporting 5-15 MPH east-southeasterly breezes during the afternoon. However, the initial storm development off to the north and west of the area appeared to be tied to weak convergence along a pair of subtle boundaries. Despite the aforementioned weak forcing and also weak mid level lapse rates, the environment featured plentiful low level moisture/instability and seasonably-decent deep layer wind shear of 30-40 knots. Ahead of the incoming storms, late afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s-low 90s (F) and dewpoints in the upper 60s-mid 70s promoted mixed-layer CAPE 2000-3000 J/kg.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:47 PM CST, 4 hours 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Main forecast problems include thunderstorm/severe weather chances tonight and excessive heat next week. Some thundershowers/thunderstorms can occur this afternoon. A couple of weak boundaries/outflow boundaries noted on LAPS, MSAS, radar and satellite data will be the focus of much of convection this afternoon/evening. One boundary has been slowly dropping south this afternoon toward the CWA and could be the main focus of afternoon/evening convection. Low and mid-level Lapse rates are fairly weak while effective deep layer shear is moderate at 30-40 KTS. Not a lot of forcing to help things along this afternoon, and it appears that coverage will be limited, although some sun is breaking out on the west edge of a significant area of sky cover. Chances of precip ramp up a bit later on this evening and into tonight. Upper level ridge over the west is shifting slightly west today/tonight with height falls occurring over the Plains and a shortwave trough/perturbation forecast to round the upper level anticyclone and could enhance the strength of any storms that may develop tonight. The 850 mb theta-e ridge axis will remain well off to the northwest in west central Nebraska into central South Dakota. Deep layer shear is forecast to be 35 KTS or so this evening and decrease slowly with time. MUCAPEs from the HREF do not look impressive where convection may occur, topping out only in the 1000- 1500 J/kg range, and decreasing over time. Mid-level lapse rates will be less than spectacular, advertised as maybe up to -7C/km on the RAP. The main thing going for marginally severe weather tonight will be the southern branch of the upper jet maybe poking far enough south to add to upper level divergence within the forward left quadrant of a jet streak and of course, the perturbation/shortwave trough rounding the anticyclone. One more day of near normal highs for Sunday as the upper ridge starts to build in from the west again and regain prominence. We should get some good subsidence, so dry weather is anticipated, but could start off with some stratus in the morning, and perhaps some patchy fog. Upper level ridge builds in even more for some hot weather for the rest of the week. 700 mb temps reach above 14C in general by Monday into Tuesday, which would put a lid on most if not all convection. A cold front is advertised to push through Tuesday night by long range models, bringing in significantly drier air, and perhaps a few degrees cooler temp. Dew points in the 40s and 50s for Wednesday and Thursday should continue giving us dry conditions as high temperatures continue to climb well into the 90s. The next shot at rain looks like possibly Thursday night and beyond when low-level moisture flux increases within return flow. 700 mb temps will remain high enough to discourage daytime surface convection, leaving any meager chance at all for precip relegated to mostly during the night time as the upper level subtropical ridge re-establishes itself. For now, severe parameters indicate little chance of severe weather for the 7-day forecast after the marginal risk of severe storms tonight. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Main issue will be the chance of convection late this afternoon and for the rest of the evening. There is a marginal risk of severe storms, so there may be the need for short fused updates with wind speed direction based on the way any storms evolve. Hi- res models indicate the possibility of some stratus to develop late tonight into Sunday morning, and maybe a little bit of a reduction to visibility, possibly MVFR. Not a lot of confidence in this yet, but it is worth a mention. Confidence should increase over time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Heinlein AVIATION...Heinlein
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 335 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 171200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 335 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight. A line of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms is expected to develop and cross the local area this evening and tonight...with wind gusts near 65 mph and hail near the size of ping-pong balls possible with the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected to impact much of the local area next week. Widespread heat index values over 100 degrees are expected most days...with a brief cool down Wednesday possibly providing a bit of relief from the more intense heat. In addition...there are small chances for thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday nights. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is unlikely to be needed through tonight... although reports of damaging wind gusts and hail of any size are always appreciated. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
15 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 59 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located three miles west-northwest of Ord.
A wind gust of 74 MPH was measured by the Ord Airport ASOS.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH in Holbrook, where a few large tree limbs were downed. A few miles east of Holbrook, gusts likely closer to 80 MPH caused damage at a farmstead. An outbuilding and grain bin were destroyed, and the roof of a two-car garage was damaged. Hail up to the size of half dollars also occurred.
Hail up to the size of half dollars was accompanied by wind gusts in the area ranging between 60-80 MPH. Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH in Holbrook, where a few large tree limbs were downed. A few miles east of Holbrook, gusts likely closer to 80 MPH caused damage at a farmstead. An outbuilding and grain bin were destroyed, and the roof of a two-car garage was damaged.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
Hail up to the size of baseballs was reported. A CoCoRaHS observer noted in comments that crops and trees were damaged and did not look good.
Hail up to the size of golf balls was reported in Farwell by an NWS Employee. Emergency management later reported that a swath approximately three miles wide running from the Farwell area to west of Dannebrog suffered widespread crop damage and broken windows and siding.
A wind gust of 64 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located three miles southwest of Kearney.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 70 MPH.
A wind gust of 58 MPH was measured by the Hastings Airport ASOS.
Some tree branches were downed in Trumbull, with power outages also reported.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 65 MPH.
A wind gust of 58 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located on the north side of Hastings. A CoCoRaHS observer in the same area reported that winds blew over trash cans, a BBQ grill, and downed small tree branches.
Some tree branches were downed in Fairfield, with power outages also reported.
Some tree branches were downed in Deweese, with power outages also reported.
Some tree branches were downed in Edgar, with power outages also reported.
A wind gust of 67 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located one mile north of Nelson.
A wind gust of 62 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located one mile south-southeast Davenport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1045479, 1045481, 1045483, 1045486, 1045487, 1045488, 1045489, 1045492, 1045498, 1045499, 1045500, 1045504, 1045505, 1045506, 1045508, 1045509, 1045510, 1045512, 1045514, 1045518.