A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas.
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The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 14, 10:51 PM CST, 5 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1051 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 .AVIATION (06Z Aviation)... The cold front has entered the Hill Country and as of 445Z was located just south of a BMQ-T82-ECU line. The front will continue south through South Central Texas over the next few hours. The main aviation concerns are the winds speeds and gusts developing behind the cold front overnight and sustained through the day on Saturday. Initial strong pressure rises behind the front will produce sustained winds from the northwest of 15-25KT at many locations with some gusts of 25-35KT overnight and into the early morning hours on Saturday. Continued strong pressure gradient and mixing of higher momentum from aloft may result in an increase in winds speeds and gusts mid to late morning, with many locations gusting 30-40KT, and isolated locations exceeding 40KT gusts. The wind speeds and gusts are expected to decrease after sunset Saturday, but remain elevated in the evening. VFR conditions are forecast, however we will need to watch closely for some localized reductions in visibilities for any BLDU that develops across the region or is carried into the region from West Texas. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022/ UPDATE... At 7PM the strong cold front stretched from near Wichita Falls to Abilene to Midland. Strong 5-7mb 3HR pressure rises in the Panhandle will continue to accelerate the front south through the late evening and overnight. Current projections have the front reaching the Hill Country 10PM-1AM and the I-35 corridor 12-3AM. Windy conditions will develop overnight behind the front. Initially the strongest winds overnight will be along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. However, we do expect mixing of higher momentum aloft to result in very windy conditions farther east Saturday morning. An impressive 40-50KT corridor of 925mb winds will be in place through the morning and midday hours, and BUFKIT soundings indicate a momentum transfer potential of up to 45-50KT during this time across portions of the southern and eastern Hill Country as well as the I-35 corridor eastward. HREF ensemble mean guidance indicates a large swath of 40-50 mph wind gusts across the Hill Country and along and just east of the I-35 corridor through the morning and midday hours, with pockets over 50 mph. From a climatological perspective both the NAEFS and ECMWF are indicating 850mb and 700mb wind speeds at the 99th percentile or max values for this time of year over the 30 year climate period. The current Wind Advisory and forecast of sustained 25 to 35 mph winds with gusts near 50 mph appears on track for most areas, however there is a good potential there could be isolated locations gusting over 50 mph. At this time we aren't confident enough with a High Wind Warning for the Hill Country or I-35 corridor, which would require sustained winds over 40 mph or wind gusts over 58 mph. GFS and ECMWF Ensemble probabilities of this criteria are currently less than 10%. However we will watch closely. Interestingly, the last time our office issued a High Wind Warning was on December 13, 2018 for the Rio Grande counties. That day Del Rio gusted to 62 mph. The pattern that day with respect to the strength of the low is similar, with the exception of the low tomorrow being displaced slightly farther to the northeast of where it was in 2018, which is why the higher wind speeds tomorrow may be through the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. For some areas tomorrow the wind will be the strongest non- convective winds we have seen since 2018. One final thing to mention, there could be some localized reductions in visibilities tomorrow for any blowing dust that develops across the region or is carried into the region from West Texas. We don't anticipate any widespread issues. Fire Weather... A dry cold front will move through the region during the pre- dawn hours early Saturday. Very strong northwest winds will develop behind the front, with gusts near 45 to 50 mph possible through the day. Dry air will be in place and finer fuels are cured and drought stressed. While RH criteria won't quite be there across central and eastern areas, the strength of the winds across our CWA combined with the cured and drought stressed fuels will be the driving factor for critical fire weather conditions. Several smaller wildfires were reported today. Out of abundance of caution we have expanded the Red Flag Warning to now include all of South Central Texas. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)... A warm afternoon is shaping up across South Central Texas as temperatures as of 1pm are already in the low to mid 70s area wide. The trio of I-35 climate sites may make a run at their record high for today (the same at all 3 sites) of 79 degrees from 1980 before all is said and done. The record high of 84 at Del Rio, also from 1980, may be a bit safer as temperatures there are still in the mid 70s. Breezy south winds are prevailing this and already driving a few grass fires today with the low relative humidity in place. This does not bode well for tomorrow's fire risk. Another taste of cooler weather is on the way though as a strong cold front is expected to arrive across the Hill Country tonight around 10 pm and push through the area during the overnight hours, exiting to the Coastal Plains by 4 am. Due to the dry air in place at the surface no precipitation is expected with the front, but the big story will be the windy conditions behind the front. Gusty northwest winds will keep temperatures cool on Saturday, only reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph are possible, with gusts as high as 50 mph. With temperatures slowly rising during the morning hours mixing will take place and the strongest wind gusts - possibly as high as 50-55mph - will take place just west of the I-35 corridor across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. With gusty winds continuing throughout the day the Wind Advisory will be continued from midnight tonight through 6 pm on Saturday. The other big issue will be with even drier air filtering into South Central Texas behind the front Fire Weather concerns will be on the rise prompting a Red Flag Warning for most of the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau. This will be discussed more in the Fire Weather Section of the AFD. Winds will slowly decrease tomorrow evening. Under clear skies and with cold air advection continuing overnight lows Saturday into Sunday morning will drop down into the mid 20s across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and to near or just below freezing across the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. If winds decrease even more, especially in the valleys and low lying areas temperatures could drop even more due to radiational cooling. LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Fair weather will be returning to the forecast Sunday afternoon as winds lighten under clearing skies and building surface high pressure. Afternoon highs will be seasonal for January, as winds will turn out of the south and southwest from west to east. Have thus forecasted highs at and above sixty degrees to the west of San Antonio-Austin, with upper 50's east. Seasonal temps in the sixties should stick around for the Monday high temperature forecast, with further moderation into the low-mid seventies looking likely across the area by Tuesday afternoon. Our next weathermaker arrives by midweek. Eyes will be on the eastern Pacific through the weekend, as the evolution of the regional upper-level pattern will go a long way in determining the precise impacts and timing of the feature. Currently quasi-stationary, an upper level low/open wave is forecast to deepen as it creeps toward the California coast. With the low digging equatorward, an amplification in the subtropical jet stream will form moving through the base of the trough, reaching the Pacific coast of Mexico and Baja California by Monday morning. Forecasted to move onshore as an open wave late Monday/early Tuesday, the upper-level low will draw a piece of energy affiliated with the aforementioned jet poleward as it begins to cross the CONUS. Likely due to increasing interaction with the polar jet stream over the eastern part of the continent, the wave/subtropical speed max is forecast to become far more energetic early Wednesday morning as it ejects from the Rockies and overspreads the area. Accordingly, a surface cold front is expected to enter from the north during the day on Wednesday, clearing the area and stalling over the Gulf of Mexico by early Thursday morning. Despite a dry passage during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, this pattern would be favorable for precipitation Thursday and Friday, particularly if isentropic lift is occurring over the shallow pool of cold air pouring in at the surface. Several global models are depicting this to be the case come next Friday, so have elected to include rain chances in the weather grids at the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 42 50 31 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 42 52 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 42 54 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 36 48 26 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 45 59 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 39 49 28 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 41 57 28 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 42 52 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 45 52 32 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 44 53 32 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 44 57 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Atascosa- Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit- Edwards-Fayette-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes- Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis- Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop- Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Edwards-Fayette- Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney- Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde- Williamson-Wilson-Zavala. && Short-Term/Aviation...76 Long-Term...05
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 822 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-160230- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 822 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A strong cold front will move through the region late tonight and into the predawn hours on Saturday. Gusty northerly winds will develop, with some gusts to around 40 mph possible overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Strong northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 50 mph are possible on Saturday. A Wind Advisory is in effect across all of South Central Texas Saturday. The strong winds on Saturday will combine with dry air in place and drought stressed and cured finer fuels, producing critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of South Central Texas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 strong wind, 1 high wind, 1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The mesonet station EA010 near Utopia reported a wind gust of 52 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The mesonet station TWB06 near Vanderpool reported a wind gust of 53 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The ASOS at South Texas Regional Airport at Hondo (KDHO) reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The ASOS at Burnet Municipal Airport-Kate Craddock Field reported a wind gust of 53 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The ASOS at San Antonio International Airport reported a wind gust of 52 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The ASOS at New Braunfels National Airport reported a wind gust of 56 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The ASOS at Del Rio International Airport (KDRT) reported a wind gust of 52 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. The AWOS at the Randolph AFB Auxiliary Field (KSEQ) reported a wind gust of 53 mph.
A strong cold front followed by strong high pressure produced a tight pressure gradient and strong winds across South Central Texas. Wind gusts estimated at 55 mph blew down |a large tree, approximately one foot in diameter, on the 1600 block of Glenvalley Dr. in Austin.
An electrical transformer explosion ignited a wildfire between Green Rd. and Schuwirth Rd. near China Grove. Strong winds gusting 40-50 mph allowed the fire to spread rapidly, burning 500 acres until it was controlled. Seven tractor semi-trailers, a mobile home, and a hay barn were destroyed. Media reports estimated the damage at $1.5 million.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1000146, 1000141, 1000150, 1000143, 1000142, 1000144, 1000149, 1000145, 1000147, 1000159.