Winter Weather in Texas, February 3 to 4, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1112 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

.AVIATION...
Cigs will continue to deteriorate overnight as areas of RA
spreads ENE over the region, near and behind a cold front that
continues to slowly ooze S across N LA and Deep E TX. IFR/LIFR
cigs with reduced vsbys are expected areawide overnight, and will
persist through much of the day Thursday although the heavier
precipitation will begin to diminish from W to E during the
afternoon. Still expecting to see a changeover to -FZRA across the
Wrn sections of E TX and the Nrn sections of SW AR after 12Z
Thursday, affecting the TYR terminal shortly thereafterwards. This
transition to FZRA should eventually affect TXK/ELD by 15Z, and
GGG between by 20Z. Still can't rule out a brief period of -FZRA
at LFK by late afternoon, but confidence has diminished and thus
have removed it from the TAF. The precip. should remain liquid
elsewhere across N LA, although a brief transition over to -FZRA
will be possible at SHV/MLU by/after 00Z Friday, with confidence a
little better at MLU than in SHV. This precipitation should
quickly diminish during the evening, although IFR cigs will
persist areawide through Friday. NNE winds 6-12kts tonight, with
occasional gusts to 20kts over E TX, will become NNW 10-15kts
after 12z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1011 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022/

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/

The evening sfc analysis indicates that the leading edge of our
cold front has continues to slowly ooze S across N LA/Deep E TX,
and was analyzed to be just S of the I-20 corridor to near a
Center/LFK/DKR line as of 04Z. Areas of RA continues to fill in
near and just behind the front mainly over E TX, although you
don't have to go far before reaching the freezing line as these
temps are straddling the NW CWA line with WFO FWD from near TRL to
SLR/PRX, and into extreme SE OK just W and N of McCurtain County.
The higher terrain of the Ouachitas will limit the Swd extent of
this freezing line through a portion of the overnight hours,
before the FZRA changeover occurs mainly between 08-12Z across the
far NW sections of NE TX, with the changeover occurring a bit
earlier in McCurtain County. The current Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories look good, although some additional N LA parishes may
need to be added to the existing Advisory for Thursday evening as
some lingering -FZRA will be possible for a brief duration. But
this will ultimately depend on the position of the freezing line,
although impacts if any will be minimal with the Advisory adjusted
by later shifts.

The only changes needed to the ongoing forecast was to adjust the
min temps up a tad across portions of SW AR/E TX/N LA, with these
values being reached at the end of the verification period (14Z
Thursday). Also sped up the high-end categorical pops areawide, as
the RA should quickly fill ENE across the region after midnight.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on track.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  40  28  40 / 100  90  20  10
MLU  38  44  27  40 / 100 100  30  10
DEQ  30  33  20  39 / 100  90  10   0
TXK  33  36  26  38 / 100  90  10   0
ELD  32  35  24  37 / 100  90  20  10
TYR  30  34  22  35 / 100  90  10   0
GGG  35  39  25  38 / 100  90  10   0
LFK  40  43  26  41 / 100  90  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for ARZ059-070-
     071.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for ARZ050-051-060-
     061-072-073.

LA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for LAZ001>004-
     006.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for TXZ097-111-
     112-126-137-138-150-152-165.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for TXZ096-108>110-
     124-125-136-149.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1242 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

ARZ059-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-111-112-126-137-
138-149>153-165>167-031845-
Little River-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-
Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-
Morris-Cass-Marion-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1242 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Arkansas, for
northern Louisiana, and for northeast and deep east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be increasing in coverage
this afternoon and evening. The cold front will continue moving into
the area overnight with showers becoming a steady light to
moderate rain during the overnight. This Arctic cold air is very
shallow, so as the air temperature eventually gets down to
freezing, this rainfall will begin to stick. The Winter Weather
Advisory begins at midnight with bridges and overpasses becoming
hazardous first. As the subfreezing air continues to arrive,
accumulations of ice are going to occur generally well north of
I-20. Expect driving conditions to quickly deteriorate once this
transition occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

A cold rain will greet the day for most locales, but the wintry
precipitation of freezing rain and sleet will continue to expand
south and eastward throughout the day on Thursday, affecting
bridges and overpasses initially. Some accumulation of ice up to
one tenth of an inch will continue to make elevated surfaces
extremely hazardous with some roads becoming hazardous as the
afternoon wears into the evening. Some light snow accumulations
may mix in as time goes on, but may become more likely at the tail
end of the event with deeper cold air. Given already wet
surfaces, roads may thaw and refreeze with highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s. This will continue making driving hazardous
potentially through Friday and perhaps Saturday. The weekend will
see a slow and dry warming trend last into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed through tonight.

ARZ050-051-060-061-OKZ077-TXZ096-108>110-124-125-136-031845-
Sevier-Howard-Hempstead-Nevada-McCurtain-Red River-Franklin-Titus-
Camp-Wood-Upshur-Smith-
1242 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas and northeast Texas and for southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

The cold front is moving into the area this afternoon. Much colder
air will move into the area tonight with showers becoming a steady
light to moderate rainfall during the overnight. This Arctic cold
air is very shallow, so as the air temperature eventually gets
down to freezing, this rainfall will begin to stick this evening
with bridges and overpasses becoming hazardous first. Eventually
some roads may become hazardous as well. Expect driving conditions
to quickly deteriorate once this transition occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Wintry precipitation will continue to mix from freezing rain to
sleet and snow as the cold air deepens while expanding eastward
throughout the day on Thursday. Ice accumulations of one tenth, up
to one quarter of an inch, will make travel extremely hazardous.
Given already wet surfaces, roads will thaw and refreeze on Friday
and perhaps into the weekend. The weekend will see a slow and dry
warming trend last into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will be needed through tonight.

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