Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2022

Name: Drought in Texas, February 1 to 28, 2022
Start: 2022-02-01T00:00
End: 2022-02-28T23:59
Location: Texas

February 1 to 28, 2022 · NWS EWX · 18 events in 18 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 18 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 18

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

Another month of below normal precipitation left much of South Central Texas in Severe (D2) or worse drought conditions. Dimmit County stayed in Extreme (D3) drought and Atascosa, Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Edwards, Frio, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, Llano, Maverick, Medina, Real, Uvalde, Val Verde, and Zavala Counties remained in D2. The 7-day average streamflow at the end of the month was Much Below normal on the Frio, Medina, San Antonio, Upper Guadalupe, Pedernales, and Llano Rivers. It was Below normal on the Nueces River. Fredericksburg was in Stage 3 water restrictions. The Edwards Aquifer was 9.6 feet below normal. Area lakes and reservoirs were below normal with Lake Amistad 48.3 feet below and Medina Lake 48.1 feet below. Atascosa, Blanco, Dimmit, Frio, Kendall, Kinney, Llano, Maverick, Uvalde, Val Verde, and Zavala Counties had outdoor burn bans in effect.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:48 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 10:48 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1048 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

.AVIATION...06Z TAF Package

The rain has now ended at all the local aerodromes with the upper
level low advancing southeastward. The TAF sites along I-35 (KAUS,
KSAT and KSSF) will see mainly MVFR to IFR conditions overnight but
the early morning hours could see a period of LIFR ceilings and some
lower visibility with fog. KDRT starts off VFR but the conditions
quickly deteriorate overnight to IFR to LIFR levels with development
of fog and very low ceilings. Most recent model guidance continue to
show the strongest signal for fog, which could become dense near or
below half a mile along the Rio Grande. Conditions at all sites will
improve into Tuesday afternoon towards VFR levels. MVFR conditions
could return late Tuesday night for the 30 hr TAF sites at KAUS and
KSAT. Winds will trend generally light and variable overnight before
becoming of around 5 to 10 knots for Tuesday into Tuesday night out
of the east to southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022/

AVIATION...00Z TAF Package

For the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT and KSSF), An upper level low is
in the process of moving across South-Central Texas, with a region of
rainfall currently setup mainly east of the I-35 corridor except for
portions of the Austin metro area and Williamson County. As a result,
moderate rain with reduced ceilings and vicinity thunder continues
at KAUS during the next few hours before the rain advances eastward.
However, MVFR to IFR ceilings will remain at all sites behind this
rain activity. With ground saturation from today's rainfall, expect
for development of prevailing LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and reduced
visibilities from fog overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect flight
conditions to improve to MVFR and eventually VFR levels into and
throughout Tuesday afternoon as clouds break and lift with diurnal
mixing. Winds stay light with variable directions overnight but are
expected to become more out of the east to southeast on Tuesday.

For KDRT, anticipate VFR conditions to prevail into tonight with
winds becoming light and variable overnight. Flight conditions
quickly deteriorate overnight with expected development of LIFR to
VLIFR ceilings and fog. Latest models show a strong signals of fog
where visibilities of a 1/2 mile or less could develop for areas
along the Rio Grande. Expect improvement back to VFR levels by the
early afternoon on Tuesday as the clouds mix out with daytime
heating. Winds will become of around 5 to 10 kts out of the east-
southeast on Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERTY HILL TO DRIPPING SPRINGS TO
LULING TO YORKTOWN...

There was a fortunate break in the action over most of the Flash
Flood Watch area during the midday hours, and radar estimated storm
totals and the highest totals look to be in central Bastrop county
with up to 2.5 inches. Rainfall intensities may pick up over this
area in the next hour, and so we went ahead with an advisory to
cover the potential for this area to be impacted by a burn scar from
the recent Rolling Pines fire. Additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
potential over this specific area could warrant a Flash Flood
Warning in the next few hours. The temporary respite over the more
urbanized areas of the I-35 corridor could be coming to an end, so
the 3 to 6 PM trends will be important in deciding whether to
continue the watch through the early evening or to clear some
counties from the higher population areas early. Late afternoon
storm strength will look to be compromised by a deep uniform SW wind
aloft pushing the deeper convection east, so time may be running out
for new rounds of rain over the Austin metro area. Nevertheless the
dynamics look plenty compact over the mid-level low so some small
hail producing storms are not out of the question.

By 9 pm, even the longer exposure areas of Fayette and Lavaca
counties could see some decreasing intensity, but they will likely
see the run-off issues linger through the effective time of the
watch.

Late tonight as the upper low moves directly overhead of the I-35
corridor en route to the Coastal Bend, the stable surface air
directly under the low and high RH values will likely lead to some
areas of potentially dense fog. Initially surface winds in the wake
of the low may stay up and out of the north and northeast at 5 to 10
mph, so this could prevent a widespread dense fog event. Winds could
lighten up by daybreak, so the fog threat may be greater at daybreak
as the upper low is pulling away and weakening.

By midday Tuesday, winds become southerly in response to the next
upstream disturbance and most areas should see mostly sunny skies by
late in the day. Areas that may see the least sun would be Central
TX as some wrap-around moisture will keep pushing over this region
after daybreak. Thus coolest max temps are here, and the soaked
soils may also play a small role on the daily max. Tuesday night
should be mostly uneventful with relatively mild temps and the
strong arctic cold front not expected to arrive until after
daybreak. Some patchy fog may again be possible.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Bottom Line Up Front...there has not been much change with this
forecast package in the anticipated winter weather event that begins
with the front late Wednesday. Models have generally stayed
consistent and the focus for the event still remains across the Hill
Country and parts of the Edwards Plateau, while questions remain
about how much (if any) wintry mix will make it into the Metro areas
along I-35.

Highlights:
1) A very strong arctic cold front will move through South Central
Texas Wednesday evening into the overnight hours bringing the coldest
airmass that we have seen all winter. It is important to note that
this will not be a repeat of the severity or impacts of the February
2021 winter storm, but hard freezes and a wintry mix of
precipitation are in the forecast.

2) The air behind the cold front will be very cold with temperatures
remaining below freezing across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country during the day on Thursday. In addition, hard freezes are
expected area wide Thursday night into Friday morning and again
Friday night into Saturday morning. Overnight lows near or below
freezing will also continue through the weekend and into early next
week. Strong north winds will also result in bitterly cold wind chill
values Thursday and Friday mornings, ranging from single digits to
the teens.

3) Precipitation will begin on Wednesday ahead of the cold front and
continue into the overnight hours and Thursday morning. As
temperatures drop behind the front there is the potential for a mix
of freezing rain and sleet Thursday morning across portions of the
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Confidence is increasing of a
wintry mix and icing impacts occurring Thursday morning across the
Hill Country, and potentially the Austin metro area. There is lower
confidence in wintry mix or icing occurring further south from Del
Rio to San Antonio to Bastrop.

Details:

A strong surface ridge of high pressure will drop south into the
Northern Plains by mid-week. The ridge will push a strong arctic
front south through Texas Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. In
general the GFS remains the fastest with the front, having it arrive
on the doorstep of the Hill Country Wednesday afternoon, while the
NAM is the slowest, holding it off until late evening and the
overnight hours Wednesday. The Canadian and ECMWF are between these
two models in terms of timing. Regardless, plenty of moisture out
ahead of the front will result in showers spreading from west to east
on Wednesday. Model soundings show some instability across areas of
the Coastal Plains, so a few rumbles of thunder are possible,
especially right ahead of the front where the additional lift can
help the storms. With an upper trough approaching from the west
precipitation chances continue through the night and into Thursday
morning as cold air filters south into the area. This will result in
the precipitation transitioning from all liquid to a wintry mix
across parts of South Central Texas. Most of the 12z models
maintained the dry slot developing across much of Texas by Thursday
afternoon, meaning that the window for wintry mix is likely focused
more during the Thursday morning hours. Models like the Canadian do
linger some precipitation into the afternoon hours and this has been
factored into the forecast. Behind the precipitation very cold air
will remain in place through late week and into the weekend. Some of
the models, like the Canadian and GFS do keep parts of the area below
freezing for a decent duration from Thursday morning through either
Friday afternoon (GFS) or Saturday afternoon (Canadian). Very cold
wind chills (single digits/teens) and hard freezes are likely for
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday mornings.

There were a few changes in the models from 00z to 12z. While the
NAM is the warmest of the models, holding off any sub-freezing
temperatures across much of the area until Thursday afternoon, the
12z run did cool a good 5-10 degrees in forecast temperatures
compared to its previous runs. This will be a trend to watch in
subsequent runs as the NAM generally does well with these cold and
dense airmasses. For the GFS, the 06z and 12z runs have backed off a
bit from the very bullish 18z and 00z previous runs. The 12z
Canadian has also backed off a bit and is not as bullish. That said
there are generally two camps right now in the synoptic models. The
GFS and Canadian are the colder of the models and they also bring the
colder temperatures in earlier Thursday morning. These are the two
models that show better chances of wintry mix getting into the Austin
area and points to the south. The NAM, ECMWF, UKMET, and to some
extent the National Blend of Models are much slower with the cold air
advection, and hold it off until mid to late morning on Wednesday.
This reduces the likelihood of wintry precipitation across Austin and
points south, while keeping the focus on the Hill Country.

Briefly talking about precipitation type...looking at the model
soundings there is a decent warm nose so the predominant
precipitation type will either be sleet for freezing rain (for areas
that drop below freezing). There is a small window for some snow to
develop across Val Verde and Edwards Counties on the backside of
this system as it exits on Thursday. In terms of accumulations, while
it is still too early to get specific, the Canadian and GFS
(logically as the colder models producing more wintry mix
precipitation), do show some accumulations of sleet and freezing rain
across the Hill Country potentially leading to impacts.

Looking beyond the cold, temperatures do slowly start to warm into
the weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the 40s, with highs Sunday in
the 50s. As mentioned in the highlights above, overnight lows will
remain below freezing, but also slowly warm. It is important to note,
as discussed in the morning EWX AFD there is a strong shortwave
trough that will be approaching late Saturday. This could produce
enough lift to produce some precipitation Saturday. While the GFS
ensemble backed off on this, and it is not shown in the GFS or
Canadian operational models, the ECMWF now does show light QPF (which
would likely be snow). The NBM is also dry, and most models show dry
air remaining in place, with a surface high in place for Saturday.
For this reason, have left the official forecast dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  69  54  66  28 /  70  -    0  70  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  52  69  52  67  29 /  80  -    0  70  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  71  53  69  32 /  20   0   0  60  90
Burnet Muni Airport            49  68  52  62  23 /  30  -    0  70  90
Del Rio Intl Airport           48  77  53  67  33 /   0   0   0  40  80
Georgetown Muni Airport        52  68  52  64  25 /  80  -    0  70  90
Hondo Muni Airport             48  74  52  68  32 /  -    0   0  60  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        52  70  52  67  30 /  40   0   0  70  90
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  70  55  71  35 /  90  -    0  60  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       51  72  54  68  33 /  10   0   0  70  90
Stinson Muni Airport           52  74  55  71  37 /  10   0   0  60  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Brady
Long-Term...17

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 9:20 PM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
920 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-020330-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
920 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Rest of tonight.

Scattered shower activity across parts of the far east of south
central Texas could result in minor flooding through midnight or
shortly after. Overall, the threat for flash flooding is limited
to localized areas.

Patchy to areas of fog are expected overnight mainly across the
I-35, Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande. Some
areas could experience dense fog by day break with visibility of
1/4 mile or less.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A strong, arctic cold front will move through Wednesday evening
bringing the coldest temperatures to the region this winter thus far.
This will not be a repeat in severity and impacts of the February
2021 winter storm, however hard freezes are expected and a potential
wintry mix of precipitation is possible.

Freezing conditions are expected Thursday across the Hill Country
and I-35 corridor. Hard freezes in the low teens to low 20s are
forecast Thursday night and Friday night across all of South Central
Texas. Brisk northerly winds will produce bitterly cold wind chill
values Thursday and Friday mornings, ranging from single digits to
teens.

Precipitation chances will accompany the front Wednesday as well
as follow it Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is a
potential for a mix of freezing rain and sleet Thursday morning
across portions of South Central Texas. Confidence is increasing of
a wintry mix and icing impacts occurring Thursday morning across the
Hill Country and potentially the Austin metro area. A lower confidence
in a wintry mix and icing occurring exists as far south as a Del
Rio to San Antonio to Bastrop line.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

18 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Atascosa

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Atascosa forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 28.894, -98.527 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Blanco

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Blanco forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.266, -98.400 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Bandera

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Bandera forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.747, -99.246 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Burnet

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Burnet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.788, -98.182 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Dimmit

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dimmit forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 28.423, -99.757 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Edwards

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Edwards forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.983, -100.305 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Frio

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Frio forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 28.868, -99.108 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Gillespie

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Gillespie forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.318, -98.946 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kendall

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kendall forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.945, -98.712 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kerr

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kerr forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.062, -99.350 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kinney

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kinney forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.350, -100.418 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Llano

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Llano forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 30.706, -98.684 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Maverick

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Maverick forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 28.743, -100.314 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Medina

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Medina forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.356, -99.110 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Real

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Real forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.832, -99.822 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Uvalde

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Uvalde forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.357, -99.762 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Val Verde

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Val Verde forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 29.893, -101.152 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Zavala

When: February 1, 12:00 AM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Zavala forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 28.866, -99.761 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2022 Every state in 2022 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, February 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1007500, 1007501, 1007502, 1007503, 1007504, 1007505, 1007506, 1007507, 1007508, 1007509, 1007510, 1007511, 1007512, 1007513, 1007514, 1007515, 1007516, 1007517.