High Wind in Texas, December 29, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
526 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Far less wind awaits today following yesterday's impressive high
winds, although a compact upper low currently lifting out of
southern CO will do its best to spur a round of occasionally strong
westerly winds. 2 AM surface pattern showed a Pacific cold front
sweeping off the Caprock ahead of breezy SW winds and temps 10-20
degrees lower in its wake. As the aforementioned low rotates
northeast this morning, the base of this wave will enhance a ribbon
of southwesterlies across our northern zones. Opted to nudge NBM90
winds a bit higher in these areas by late morning once mixing
deepens and taps into some 30 knot winds. Since the gradient flow
will be diminishing as the day wears on south of the departing low,
feel any advisory level winds should be short lived and/or too
localized to warrant a headline at this time.

Abundant high clouds will wane from W-E today behind the departing
trough axis, although high temps will be capped in the 50s and 60s
under much lower thicknesses. Tonight should see a resurgence of
high clouds as a shortwave trough organizes in NM, although the
timing and degree of clouds is not particularly clear which will
have an impact on lows. NBM lows were blended with some of the
colder BCCONSSHORT values, but still remaining above the coldest MET
numbers due to varying degrees of high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

The long-term will start Friday with an upper-level shortwave trough
to our west, moving towards the area. As this shortwave nears the
area, surface trough will strengthen over northeastern New Mexico,
bringing breezy southwesterly winds. As the shortwave passes over
the FA, the GFS and a few higher-res models show that there may be a
potential for light precipitation over our southern zones. A dry sub-
cloud layer will most likely keep most, if not all, of this
precipitation from hitting the ground. Thus, the official forecast
will remain dry. The shortwave will move to our east on Saturday,
but surface troughing will remain over northeastern New Mexico,
keeping breezy conditions going. An upper trough will enter the west
coast Saturday and will close into a low as it moves east. Models
are starting to come into a little better agreement that this low
will move to our north. This setup usually results in no
precipitation and windy conditions. MOS guidance is hinting that we
could near Wind Advisory criteria (winds > 30 mph) on Monday, but
for now, we will keep the blended solution which brings 20-25 mph
winds. Breezy to low-end windy conditions are progged to continue
through Monday night into Tuesday. Something to note is that the
blended solution does keep some PoPs for Monday, which will remain
the official forecast for now, but we do expect the blend to
continue to reduce PoPs for the day. A pacific front will push
through late Monday, bringing cooler temperatures on Tuesday, and a
secondary front will push in from the north during the day on
Tuesday, resulting in lows in the 20s and 30s. We will start a
warmup going into the middle of the week as clouds start to move out
and winds become southerly once again. GKendrick

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

VFR. Westerly winds are on track to ratchet up to 20-25 knots by
late morning with the strongest gusts around 35 knots favoring
PVW. Winds will taper through the afternoon as a disturbance
lifts farther north of the region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
834 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

TXZ021>044-301445-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
834 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Westerly winds may occasionally reach sustained speeds of 30 mph
late this morning and early afternoon over the far southwest and
south-central Texas Panhandle. Highly localized wind gusts near 50
mph will also be possible across these locations, particularly along
and east of the immediate edge of the Caprock Escarpment.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Windy conditions are expected to return to the region on Monday,
bringing the potential for increased fire weather concerns and
blowing dust.