Flash Flood in Texas, August 21, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Current surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated near
Amarillo extending northeast towards the surface low in eastern
Iowa. As this front interacts with the mid-level trough to our west,
widespread heavy rainfall is likely to occur areawide in the
forecast area this afternoon and through the day tomorrow. The rich
Pacific moisture combined with strong forcing for ascent will lead
to numerous areas of heavy rain and some thunderstorms. The greatest
risk will be the possibility of localized flooding. Given how dry
the region has been recently, soil infiltration rates may be lower
and lead to greater runoff. Despite this, we have decided against
issuing a flood watch due to the lack of widespread potential,
however it is possible that some locations may receive enough heavy
rain for minor flooding this evening through tomorrow. Rainfall
totals will generally be around 1-3" with some greater totals
possible in areas that receive more persistent heavy rain. Rain is
expected to linger into tomorrow afternoon for some locations in the
CWA especially in the eastern portion before we see a break in
precipitation. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow afternoon due to
the rainfall and cloud cover. However if rain and clouds clear
faster than expected, temps may rise quickly, particularly in the
southern portion of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Surface high pressure will begin to push the cold front south of the
FA beginning tomorrow evening/night. This will result in diminishing
rain chances tomorrow night into Monday morning. Temps will remain
cool on Monday as surface flow remains out of the east and skies
remain cloud through much of the day. The forecast remains fairly
quiet past Monday as upper ridging builds across the Four Corners
and the upper height gradient becomes relaxed. While chances remain
low, there is potential for a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the southern Rolling Plains mid to late
week. Coverage would be isolated at best given no organized lift
outside of a few weak upper level disturbances. Rain chances could
return by the weekend as upper ridging is eroded by an upper level
trough pushing across the central CONUS bringing another front
southward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

IFR to MVFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.
Areas of rain with low cigs will remain. Thunder should remain
isolated.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
651 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

TXZ021>044-220000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
651 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring the
threat of moderate to heavy rainfall across the entire outlook area
this evening and overnight. Although heavy rainfall has been spotty
the past 24 hours, the atmosphere remains capable of producing heavy
rainfall rates as monsoon moisture and an upper-level disturbance
pass across the region. Excessive rainfall may result in localized
flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue on
Sunday, then start to decrease in coverage Sunday night into Monday.
Although severe weather is not expected, heavy rainfall is possible
which may produce localized flooding.