A weak mid level disturbance interacted with a moist and unstable air mass over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain and allowed for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which produced damaging wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A weak mid level disturbance interacted with a moist and unstable air mass over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain and allowed for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which produced damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 21, 3:38 AM EST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 438 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface boundary will diminish across the area today. A series of upper level disturbances will cross the region through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday... Water vapor satellite showed an upper-level low centered over Lake Michigan, a ridge centered across Bermuda and southwest flow aloft across central NC. A disturbance embedded in the southwest flow aloft was moving northeast across western SC, and portions of western NC. Additionally, a trough associated with the aforementioned upper low was digging southeast into the TN Valley. The weak, stalled surface front will dissolve today, with the Bermuda high to our east maintaining southwest surface flow across the region throughout the day. The first upper wave to our southwest has started to develop some showers early this morning across portions of the southern Piedmont, and will continue to develop showers and scattered thunderstorms across the western half of the region throughout the morning. The next area of showers and thunderstorms will develop across western areas this afternoon as a Piedmont trough develops, and storms move easterly across the region through this evening. Finally, the trough currently near the TN Valley will move across the region this evening, and generate another round of showers and thunderstorms. However, storms with today's last trough will be more scattered due to less instability across the region. Storms are not expected to be very organized with shear remaining weak, however SB CAPE of 1,500- 2,500 J/kg this afternoon could create a strong storm or two. Precipitable water values increasing to near 2" will create the possibility of heavy rain today, and where storms train or move slowly, isolated flash flooding is possible. Convection will diminish in coverage by late tonight, with a stray shower or two possible by sunrise Monday. Dewpoints in the low 70s will make highs in the low to mid-80s feel like the mid-80s to low 90s this afternoon. Lows tonight will be similar to this morning, ranging from the upper 60s N to low 70s S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday... A mid/upper trough and associated surface low will slowly push east from the OH Valley and extend from Upstate NY down the spine of the Appalachians on Monday and Monday night. A pair of jet streaks will also be in place, one over the TN Valley and the other stretching from VA into the Delmarva, resulting in some upper divergence across central NC. In addition, there will be 10-20 m height falls from the approaching mid/upper trough and vorticity maxima stretching across the shear axis on the eastern side of the trough. All of the above translates to good forcing for ascent especially over the Coastal Plain. Deep southwesterly flow and moisture transport will also be maximized over the Coastal Plain, where PW values of around 2-2.25" (or 1-2 standard deviations above normal) will be possible. While the CAMS show a lull in precipitation on Monday morning as one vortmax and associated batch of showers moves to the east, widespread showers should develop once more in the afternoon and evening across eastern and southeastern zones, where POPs are likely. Farther west across the northern Piedmont, the flow aloft should begin to turn more westerly, shutting off the best moisture transport and shortwave energy, especially by the afternoon and evening as the trough axis approaches. However, a cold front will be approaching from the west which could provide some additional forcing. So POPs remain high chance there. Instability looks sufficient across central NC for a chance of storms in the afternoon and evening, with up to 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. However, shear will be lacking which should limit any severe threat. The widespread clouds and precipitation will keep high temperatures below normal on Monday, in the upper-70s to lower-80s. The best forcing and moisture will shift to the coast on Monday night, but isolated to scattered showers will be possible with the cold front as it moves into the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM Sunday... A cold front over the Piedmont on Tuesday morning will get hung up somewhere over central NC and wash out by midweek. Drier air will filter in behind the front with NW flow, meaning there will be a fairly strong gradient in PW values across central NC on at least Tuesday and Wednesday, lowest NW and highest SE. Thus the greatest POPs (high chance) are in the SE and the lowest POPs (slight) are in the NW on these days. Compared to Monday, these days should have convection that is mainly diurnally-forced and less widespread. This is due to the main part of the mid/upper trough lifting NE into eastern Canada, while only weak troughing over the Eastern US remains, and any shortwave disturbances stay well to the north over the OH Valley and Northeast. POPs increase a bit areawide on Thursday and Friday as the flow aloft turns more southwesterly again and PW values increase, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing a shortwave disturbance potentially moving through. On Saturday, the ECMWF continues to be fairly wet while the GFS is drier with height rises and subsidence behind a stronger depicted shortwave disturbance moving through on Friday compared to the ECMWF. Due to the uncertainty, opted to removed the likely POPs that NBM had on Saturday, capping them at chance. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should be near normal (generally in the mid-to-upper-80s), decreasing a bit for the rest of the period with increasing precipitation chances. Lows will be slightly above normal through the period, generally mid-60s to lower-70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Patchy MVFR to locally LIFR VIS and CIGs will continue to develop through early morning. An area of SHRA and isolated TSRA will move northeast into the region near sunrise, but confidence is low that the large area of storms currently on the radar will hold together once it moves across central NC. Additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA are expected throughout the day as disturbances move by aloft. Precipitation should exit the region from west to east by early Monday morning, with lingering areas of MVFR CIGs/VIS overnight. Looking ahead: The chance for showers and storms will remain high through Monday evening as a prominent upper level trough moves from the west into the eastern US. There will also be areas of sub-VFR stratus and fog late Sunday night/Mon morning. It will then turn a bit drier for Tue through Fri, although scattered afternoon storms will remain possible, esp across our south and east sections. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...JJT/Hartfield NEAR TERM...JJT SHORT TERM...Danco LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...JJT/Hartfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 415 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-220815- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 415 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
511 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022
NCZ038-039-073>075-211000-
Stanly NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-Moore NC-
511 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Moore,
northern Montgomery, southwestern Randolph and northeastern Stanly
Counties through 600 AM EDT...
At 511 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Asheboro, Troy, North Carolina Zoo, Badin Lake, Biscoe, Seagrove,
Badin, Robbins, Star and Steeds.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3550 8020 3551 8019 3551 8018 3572 7981
3542 7957 3529 8001 3548 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0911Z 245DEG 16KT 3542 7998
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
JJTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
610 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022
NCZ038>040-073>075-084>086-211115-
Scotland NC-Stanly NC-Richmond NC-Chatham NC-Hoke NC-Randolph NC-
Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-Moore NC-
610 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Moore, Scotland,
southeastern Davidson, Montgomery, Richmond, Randolph, northeastern
Stanly, Hoke and southwestern Chatham Counties through 715 AM EDT...
At 610 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Lexington to near Wakulla.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
High Point, Asheboro, Lexington, Laurinburg, Albemarle, Southern
Pines, Rockingham, Raeford, Randleman and Troy.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3549 8030 3551 8019 3572 8033 3572 8038
3594 8005 3592 8004 3590 7966 3553 7932
3552 7935 3543 7933 3531 7919 3527 7922
3519 7910 3504 7909 3495 7904 3483 7919
3484 7935 3477 7933 3466 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 233DEG 24KT 3572 8015 3481 7933
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
JJTThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:49 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Three homes were struck by lightning near the intersection of Legacy Lake Way and Warren Lake Road.
A tree was reported down on a house near the intersection of Cheek Lane and Mount Carmel Road.
A home was struck by lightning near the intersection of East Magnolia Court and East Augusta Lane.
Trees were reported down near United States Highway 64, east of Rocky Mount.
Two trees were reported down in the intersection of Edgewood Church Road and Sharp Point Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1053689, 1053688, 1053693, 1053685, 1053679.