Drought in Texas, August 16 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR prevails tonight and Tuesday. Models are now
suggesting low probability of sea breeze convection late morning
into the afternoon. KBRO and KHRL look to have the best chances
with activity moving in a northwest direction keeping KMFE mainly
dry although a few cells could be nearby. Higher gusts, lower
cigs and vsby could briefly impact the air terminals if one of
these isolated cells track overhead. Light to moderate southeast
winds prevail with afternoon gusts to 20-23kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at the aerodromes through
the next 24 hours. Dry conditions will prevail as a result of the
low pressure system moving farther west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Through the short term
period chances of rain and storms will continue to dwindle as high
pressure begins to build back into the area.

For the remainder of today, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected into early evening. PWATS across the region are between 2
and 2.15 inches so there is plenty of moisture to work with and some
of this development could lead to heavy rainfall at times. Some
areas of the CWA have seen 2 to 4 or more inches of rainfall over
the past few days, and some of this activity, especially if it
trains over the same area, could lead to another 1-3 inches of
rainfall in a short time and raises the concern for localized
flooding. WPC continues to maintain and marginal risk of excessive
rainfall through today and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect into
this evening for all of Deep South Texas.

Precipitation chance begin to taper off this evening into Tuesday.
Moisture content will still be elevated across the region and with
afternoon heating along with the sea breeze could once again fire
off showers and thunderstorms which could produce locally heavy
rainfall. Currently kept POPs capped at around 30 percent.
Conditions will continue to dry out for Tuesday night.

Temperatures today have been able to rebound a bit with some of the
clearing with highs in the low 90s. Tuesday temperatures are
expected to be just a skosh higher across central and eastern
portions of the and nearing 100 in portions of Starr and Zapata
counties. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow will fall into the mid
to upper 70s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Mid level ridging will remain
situated across Deep South Texas through the majority of the long
term period, bringing the return of more typical Deep South Texas
summer weather to the area: more heat and the potential for some sea
breeze showers. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s
across the Rio Grande Valley and reach the lower 100s across the Rio
Grande Plains each afternoon through Friday. With the recent
rainfall, surface dew points might be even higher than models are
indicating, which could increase our relative humidity and heat
index values. As of this forecast package, heat indices are expected
to reach the 105 to 110 degree range most afternoons and if they're
bumped up slightly, we will be watching for the potential for Heat
Advisories. Even though drier air will filter in at the mid and
upper levels for the second half of the week, PWats (precipitable
water values) are still expected to reach 1.6-1.8 inches, so there
will likely still be enough moisture to support isolated sea breeze
showers or thunderstorms each day through Friday.

The weekend is a bit more interesting. Models are hinting at a weak
tropical disturbance moving across the southwestern Gulf and into
Mexico, but uncertainty remains rather high. The main concern with
this feature is the potential surge of atmospheric moisture (PWats
over 2 inches) it will bring to Deep South Texas that will increase
our potential to see more heavy rain. For now, have left PoPs at 30
to 40 percent on Saturday and Sunday to account for the uncertainty.
With increased cloud cover and rain potential, temperatures will be
a few degrees cooler than the work week.

MARINE: Now through Tuesday Night...Slightly elevated winds
(around 15 kts) will continue to maintain exercise caution
condition on the waters through this afternoon. More favorable
conditions return for Tuesday. Isolated showers and storms in the
area through tomorrow could lead to localized enhanced winds and
seas.

Wednesday through Sunday...Marine conditions will be generally
benign through the week due to a relaxed pressure gradient along
the lower Texas coast. Light to moderate southeast winds and low
to moderate seas can be expected through the long term. However,
winds may exceed 15 knots at times Friday through Sunday, so small
craft may need to exercise caution at these times. Models are
hinting at a weak tropical disturbance moving across the
southwestern Gulf and into Mexico this weekend, but uncertainty
remains rather high at this time. Small Craft Advisories are not
likely to be needed through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  92  78  93 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          80  95  79  95 /  10  20   0  10
HARLINGEN            77  94  77  96 /  10  20   0  10
MCALLEN              78  98  78  99 /   0  20   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  97  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  86  81  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

59-GB/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
715 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-162215-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
715 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall into this evening,
especially across the brush country, with the potential for
isolated flash flooding.

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat Advisories may be needed for heat indices nearing or
exceeding 110 degrees Wednesday through Friday afternoon.

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-162215-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
715 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.