Tornado and Hail in Tennessee, June 6, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
256 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

.DISCUSSION...
An unsettled pattern will prevail over the Midsouth through late
week, with showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

We start the forecast with zonal flow over much of the CONUS,
including the Midsouth. A subtropical height ridge was centered
over northern Mexico, extending into the southern half of TX and
the western Gulf of Mexico. As was the case last night and this
morning, storms will develop in the strong baroclinic zone over
the central plains, then ride the periphery of the ridge across
the Ozarks into the Midsouth Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storm track should shift slightly south Wednesday night and
Thursday, with greater rain chances focused along and south of a
weak surface cold front settling into east central AR and north MS.

Upper level flow will become increasingly meridional on Thursday,
as the the western U.S. upper ridge amplifies. A shortwave trof
and attendant MCS will pass from the central plains into the
Midsouth Friday morning. This As mentioned in the SPC extended
convective outlook for Day 5, this system will arrive with a
strong to severe thunderstorm threat. a few Rainfall and the
convective outflow-enhanced cold frontal passage will likely
limit daytime temperatures over previous forecasts.

The moderate temperatures won't last too long. The upper level
pattern will deamplify through the weekend, and the desert
Southwest upper ridge will expand eastward along the gulf coast.
By the middle of next week, strong ridging aloft will extend from
the desert southwest, across the southern plains and Midsouth,
into the Carolinas. This will shift the storm track from the
central plains into the upper Midwest and bring well above normal
temps to the Midsouth.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Narrow convective line lifted through MEM prior to 17Z, ahead of
short term model consensus by a few hours. Airmass over east AR
had stabilized at midday, but expect some additional destabilization
to coincide with a secondary disturbance and surface wind shift
dropping southeast out of northern AR. TAF timing of the late
afternoon/early evening TSRA will be near CAM consensus, but with
some time buffer. Confidence is only marginal with this second
convective episode, with instability the main question at all
terminals but TUP.

Few issues foreseen for the late evening MEM arrival push, with
TSRA likely southeast of the TRACON, and upstream convective storm
cluster well upstream over the central plains. FL020 winds likely
prevail from the WSW at or below 40KT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-080145-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe weather across portions of the
the Mid-South this evening. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat, but there is also a potential for marginally severe hail,
locally heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe storms will be possible across all of the Mid-
South Tuesday and Wednesday. Damaging winds will be the main
hazard but small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Additional activation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.