High winds were measured at Cove Mountain during the morning hours of February 22.
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The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
High winds were measured at Cove Mountain during the morning hours of February 22.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 6:50 AM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)...
Key Messages:
1. High winds expected in The Smokies.
2. Mostly dry during the day today, with cold front and slug of
precipitation coming in tonight.
3. Possibility of some training convection tonight with cold front.
Thus will keep flash flood watch as-is for now.
Discussion:
For today...
Initial wave of convection on the nose of the nocturnal LLJ and
focus of greatest isentropic ascent is currently lifting NE through
the CWA early this morning. This should continue to shift northeast
into VA/WV by shortly after daybreak, likely leaving the forecast
area mostly dry through the daytime hours today. Most numerical
guidance shows dry conditions today across most of the forecast
area, save perhaps some isolated showers over the northern plateau
this afternoon. BUFR soundings lend further confidence to dry
conditions with a nice capping inversion in place around 800mb, weak
and slender CAPE profiles aloft, and notably high LFC heights. Took
the forecast in this direction and used a heavy-handed blend of the
NAM, NBM, and CONSShort for PoPs today.
Lastly, regarding the high wind warning today, I think this is in
good shape. The H85 winds remain largely out of the southwest so the
potential for strong downslope winds along the TN/NC border and into
the adjacent foothills and eastern TN valley should be limited.
There will be some, it's just not a prime setup for expansive
mountain waves. That said, H85 flow is forecast to range from near
50kt over the Smokies so it is highly likely that wind prone
spots like Cove Mountain will hit high wind criteria today.
For tonight...
A cold front will push in from the west tonight, giving a good shot
of rain to the forecast area around and after midnight. The heaviest
precip with this front should be north of the I-40 corridor, and
specifically from the northern plateau northeast into the far
northern TN valley and southwest VA. Rainfall with the front should
push storm total amounts up to between 1.75" and 2.5" for those
areas, with 1.5" to 2" elsewhere in the Tn valley. QPF amounts
from numerical guidance and WPC are notably higher in some places,
and equally lower in others. Additionally, 3hr and 6hr flash
flood guidance values are on par with the forecast QPF. Nothing
stands out as a particularly heightened flash flood risk at the
moment. That being said, this front will be slowing down as it
enters east TN and low level flow will be parallel to the front,
so some training convection could occur which would locally
enhance rainfall amounts. With PWATs at climatologically high
values, it would not take much training to produce some flooding
issues. All things considered, will keep the flash flood watch
as-is for the time being.
On Wednesday...
The cold front should be into the Appalachians by daybreak or
shortly thereafter. Some showers may linger in the southern TN
mountains and western NC counties into the mid morning hours but
overall expect Wednesday to be a fairly cloudy but dry day. Despite
the frontal passage, cold air advection will be stunted on Wed.
Upper flow remains largely zonal during the day and there is
negligible change in H85 temps for example. As such, expect many
areas will see low to mid 60s on Wed afternoon.
CD
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Key Messages:
1. Another system will impact the region Thursday through early in
the day on Friday with locations north of I-40/I-81 expected to see
heavier totals of an additional 1" to 2" or more.
2. Saturday is dry and cooler before another potential system during
the second half of the weekend. Confidence remains limited, but an
area-wide rain/snow mix is possible before a push of notably cold
air by Monday.
Wednesday Night through Friday
At the start of the period, a strong mid/upper jet will be located
across the eastern Great Lakes to the central U.S. ahead of
troughing over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will be
located along eastern portions of our region ahead of strong high
pressure building from the northwest. Heading into the day on
Thursday, the front is expected to drift southward before increasing
cyclogenesis is indicated ahead of an approaching shortwave from the
central U.S. This is seen at the 850mb level and down to the surface
with an increasing LLJ and surface troughing. All of these factors
will work to pull Gulf moisture and the aforementioned frontal
boundary back northward towards Kentucky. This will all provide re-
development of convection in the region as the surface low becomes
an open wave to our northeast into the overnight period. Based on
the jet dynamics and location of the moisture axis/frontal boundary,
the focus is in Kentucky and along our northern tier for heaviest
rainfall totals before the associated cold front move in by Friday.
While moisture is not expected to be as significant as with the
first system, localized flooding due to repeated rainfall still
can't be ruled out, mainly north of I-40/I-81. This is also
dependent upon how much prior rain is seen. Also, the downsloping
due to southerly 850mb flow closer to the mountains does look to
limit totals in those areas. Based on indications from the latest
model guidance, any instability looks to be very limited and
elevated, outlining a very minimal severe threat outside of maybe
some gusty winds.
By the day on Friday, the associated cold front will be moving
through the area, invoking a pattern change to seasonally cooler
conditions. With lingering moisture in eastern portions of the area
following CAA, light flurries or snow showers are possible later on,
mainly in the higher elevations of the mountains.
Saturday through Monday
By Saturday, high pressure will build into the region, promoting
subsidence and a return of drier weather. However, heading into the
second half of the weekend, cyclogenesis is indicated near the
northwestern Gulf ahead of an approaching shortwave. Much
uncertainty still remains as to how much moisture/precipitation is
expected with some deterministic data indicating notable QPF totals,
given the potential of profiles cold enough for mixed wintry
precipitation. As of yet, many ensemble members remain less
aggressive on the extent of moisture and/or sufficiently cold
temperatures for a notable winter event. Another consideration is
also the increased sun angle by this late in the season. In any
case, it will be something to watch before a notable push of cold
air is indicated by the end of the period.
BW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Another round of SHRA will move by KCHA and KTYS this morning, but
after the 16z-17z timeframe expect dry conditions through the
daytime hours. Will see a gradual improvement in flight categories
to VFR levels by mid afternoon at all sites. Winds will be gusty
today as well. Cold front moves in tonight with widespread SHRA
and MVFR or possibly IFR conditions.
CD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 57 68 53 73 / 20 90 70 50 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 55 66 49 70 / 10 100 60 70 60
Oak Ridge, TN 72 55 66 48 67 / 20 100 50 70 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 55 64 47 64 / 50 100 70 70 80
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.
VA...NONE.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 300 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-222000- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 300 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022 /200 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, producing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, are expected this week. The first round will move through on Tuesday night and the second round will arrive on Thursday and Thursday night. Widespread storm totals of 2 to 3 inches are forecast, with several areas of 4 to 5 inches of rain possible in the northern Plateau and central Tennessee Valley. Flooding could become an issue in locations that receive these higher amounts from repeated rainfall. Please see the Flood Watch product for additional information. Strong winds are likely in the Tennessee mountains Tuesday, especially in the Smokies and nearby foothills where gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible. Elsewhere in the mountains, gusts to 40 mph or more are possible. See the High Wind Warning for more details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report incidents of flooding this week.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gusts were measured at the GSMNP Cove Mountain wind tower.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1003923.