Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, May 27, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1237 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with
upper trof working into the western CONUS, and distinct wave over
the Northern Rockies. At the surface, broad trof over eastern
MT/eastern WY with best pressure falls over western SD. Temps are
generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s early this afternoon, with
fairly abundant mid/high clouds holding temps down a bit.

Surface low expected to form this afternoon over far western SD
invof the Black Hills per best pressure falls. MLCAPE will be in the
500-1000J/kg range along the surface trof and especially north of
the surface low into northwest SD. Best chance for showers/storms
will be in the late afternoon to early evening time frame mainly
along/north of I-90 in northeast WY, the Black Hills and northwest
SD. Given the dry low levels and higher LCLs, main concern with any
storms will be wind gusts given DCAPE aoa 1000J/kg. It's possible
that MLCAPE may not reach its full potential given the amount of
mid/high clouds, but that remains to be seen. Activity should
quickly push out of the area by mid evening.

Stronger wave arrives Saturday, with better moisture in place
near/east of the Black Hills given inverted trof extending north
into far western SD. MLCAPE should be a bit higher than today given
increased low level moisture, and shear profiles combined with CAMs
output suggest several bowing segments possible with storms,
especially near/south of I-90 in western SD. Large hail also a risk,
particularly with more discrete supercells. Given rather high PW's,
heavy rains also a possibility. Temps should be wide ranging from
west to east given inverted trof.

Upper low forms over southern ID on Sunday and shifts into the
Northern Plains on Monday, a bit more of an easterly track than
previous model runs suggested. Looks like best potential for
widespread precip will be in the Sunday night and Monday time frame.
There is some chance for a severe threat on Sunday in our eastern
zones, and will be dependent on position of frontal boundary. PWs
will be remain high with potential for heavy rains at times. Upper
low/trof should shift east of the area on Tuesday.

Drier and warmer conditions will returns for mid/late next week,
although west/northwest flow will lead to some chances for precip at
times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1127 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the early afternoon hours.
Breezy southerly winds will continue through the afternoon. Winds
will then switch to the northwest in the late afternoon and
evening behind a cold front. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop near the front later this afternoon and
track east into the evening hours. A few storms could become
severe with strong wind gusts the primary threat. Local and brief
MVFR conditions are possible in and near any stronger storms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
526 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-072-073-WYZ056-057-071-281300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Northeastern Crook-
526 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and early evening, meaning that scattered severe
storms are possible. The primary hazard will be damaging wind
gusts, but hail is also a possibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An unsettled pattern will continue to bring daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area through early next
week.

On Saturday, there is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening, with the best chances across
the Black Hills and areas to the east. Primary hazards include
large hail and strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ026>032-041>044-046-047-049-074-WYZ054-055-058-281300-
Rapid City-Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-
Southern Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-
Fall River-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Weston-
526 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022 /626 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
late this afternoon and early evening, meaning that isolated
severe storms are possible. The primary hazard will be damaging
wind gusts, but hail is also a possibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An unsettled pattern will continue to bring daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area through early next
week.

On Saturday, there is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening, with the best chances across
the Black Hills and areas to the east. Primary hazards include
large hail and strong wind gusts.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also a possibility Sunday
afternoon, especially for areas to the southeast of the Black
Hills into south central South Dakota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity