Flood and Heavy Rain in Pennsylvania, November 11 to 12, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
354 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain today and tonight as low pressure crosses the region.
Scattered rain and snow showers are expected Saturday with an
upper level trough.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The remnants of Nicole will quickly move across the Ohio
Valley, coincident with Great Lakes low pressure's cold front.
Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible throughout the day
with between 1.25" to 3.00" currently forecast across the
region. Models have continued to keep the axis of highest QPF,
mainly over eastern Ohio. Models also continue to show a dry
slot developing this afternoon in the warm sector on the eastern
flank of the surface low. Timing of the dry slot would be late
morning through the afternoon mainly over counties east of Ohio.

Even with all the rain, temperatures will remain mild for mid
November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will attempt to nose into the region from the
southwest on Saturday. However, an afternoon shortwave trough
will bring another risk for light precipitation Saturday
afternoon and evening. By Saturday night, low level west to
northwest flow off of the lake and cold air advection will
begin to initiate snow showers. The core of the colder air will
move into the Upper OH Valley late Saturday night and Sunday
with 850 temps of -8 to -10 Celsius. A post frontal trough will
assist in the development of additional snow showers across the
northern counties on Sunday.

Colder temperatures will begin to take hold on Saturday, with
Sunday even colder as strong cold air advection continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The potential for snow showers will persist through the day on
Monday until finally, surface high further infiltrates from the
west cutting off the flow off the lake with dry conditions and
cooler than normal temperatures in place. Thus dry conditions
will return for Monday through Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain will overspread the area early this morning from south to
north as the remnants of Nicole approach the region.
Deterioration to IFR is expected for most terminals after the
rain begins, lingering into Sat morning. However, some
improvement to MVFR is expected Fri afternoon at MGW and LBE
with gusty SEly downsloping wind. Winds will become W/NWly
behind the crossing cold front Friday night as showers come to
an end.

.OUTLOOK....
Upper troughing and cold W-NW flow should maintain cig
restrictions and sct rain/snow showers through Sunday. VFR
returns Mon/Tue under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
332 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-120845-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
332 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain will move across the area late
today and tonight. Localized flooding may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.