Hail and Damaging Winds in Pennsylvania, June 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region this evening. High
pressure builds in Thursday afternoon through Saturday before a
warm front lifts across the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM: Line of strong to severe thunderstorms pushing across
our southeastern counties...have been getting scattered
damaging wind, a bit of hail, and brief torrential downpours
with the heftier storms. Conditions support a continued threat
for scattered severe weather, primarily from damaging winds,
with this line over the next 1-2 hours before it exits to our
southeast. Have begun clearing the watch behind this line and
will continue to do so as it continues to the east.

Cold front itself is back from Sandusky down towards Findlay,
though the line of convection ahead of it is making it hard to
find in wind fields. Atmosphere is fairly worked over where
storms have moved through, but scattered showers/thunder are
trying to re-develop across northwest OH along the front. No
severe threat with these, and should decrease in coverage and
intensity through the evening as they move into the worked-over
airmass after sunset...but, have some chance POPs continuing
through most of the evening for this activity.

Previous Discussion:

The main weather story this afternoon into this evening will be
the threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The
thermodynamics are coming together for a rather active and
storm later afternoon for most of northern Ohio into northwest
Pennsylvania. Mixed layer CAPE values are approaching 1500 to
2000 J/KG. Downward CAPE values are running 800 to 1000 J/KG.
Effective Bulk shear values are not overly impressive but just
enough around 30 to 35 knots. There is some warm air aloft
resulting in our mid level lapse rates to be around 6C.
Precipitable water values are a modest 1.3 to 1.5 inch. A weak
cold front will push through the area now through the mid
evening hours.

With these atmospheric ingredients, we are
expecting multi-cell type convection. There may be the
potential for a couple mini bowing clusters of storms as well.
The main severe hazards will be damaging wind gusts up to 65
mph followed by marginally severe hail up to the size of
quarters. There will be a locally heavy rainfall threat given
the high moisture content in the lower atmosphere. The timing
for severe convection will be now through about 00z before most
of the storms move east out of our area.

The cold front will slowly move through later this evening with
a few lingering showers possible. A weak low will track along
the front across Ohio late tonight into early Thursday morning.
This weak low may bring a few additional scattered rain showers
through early Thursday morning before high pressure builds into
the region by late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Clouds
will slowly clear from northwest to southeast on Thursday
afternoon. High temps will be almost 20 degrees cooler on
Thursday in the middle to upper 60s. Clear skies and drier air
moves in Thursday night with very pleasant weather and
temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is likely during the whole period as troughing aloft
exits northeastward and is followed by westerly flow aloft, and
stabilizing high pressure ridging at/near the surface builds from
the northern Great Plains. A surface trough associated with a weak
cold front should sweep southeast across our CWA on Friday, but dry
low-levels and weak low-level convergence/ascent along the front
should prevent precip development. Daytime highs mainly in the 70's
on Friday should be followed by highs in the mid 60's to mid 70's on
Saturday. Overnight lows should range from the mid 40's to mid 50's
Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Westerly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
affect our CWA this whole period. At the surface, high pressure
exits eastward on Sunday and is followed by a northeastward warm
front passage on Monday. A southeastward cold front passage may
occur by late Monday. This frontal zone may then waver in vicinity
of our region Tuesday through Wednesday as multiple and weak low
pressure centers potentially ripple generally northeastward along
the front. This pattern should result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms, but uncertainty remains regarding the timing of each
shortwave disturbance and associated greater potential for
showers/storms. Highs should mainly reach the 70's, but our I-75
corridor counties may have highs reach the lower 80's on Sunday and
Monday. Lows should reach the mid 50's to lower 60's each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The main concerns for aviation will be the potential for
scattered strong to severe convection this afternoon into the
early evening hours for all of northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. We expect VFR conditions through the evening hours
outside of any heavier convection. There will be brief drops in
visibilities and ceilings with the convection as well into the
evening hours. The strongest convection will be capable of large
hail and severe downburst wind gusts.

A cold front will move through the area this evening after 00z
which will shift southwest winds 5-10 knots today to
northwest/north winds 5-10 knots overnight into Thursday
morning. Ceilings will drop to MVFR and some locations lower
end MVFR. Some guidance shows the potential for IFR at a few
locations but we did not have that in the TAF for this update.
We will watch trends and see if those ceilings need to be
updated in the TAF. MVFR ceilings expected to last through
Thursday morning. There could be some scattered light rain
showers possible around early Thursday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Thursday morning into the afternoon
with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds of about 15 knots or less are expected through this Monday.
Waves should trend 3 feet or less. At this point, no Small Craft
Advisories are anticipated. A cold front will continue to sweep
southeastward across Lake Erie through this evening and will be
followed by high pressure building from the northern Great Plains
through Thursday. Southwesterly winds veer to mainly northwesterly
to northerly behind the front. Variable wind direction is then
expected Friday through Sunday as the high pressure ridge builds
further over the lake. On Monday, high pressure exits eastward and a
warm front sweeps northeastward in the morning, allowing winds to
veer from southeasterly to southwesterly. These southwesterly winds
may then veer to northwesterly and then to northeasterly later on
Monday as a southeastward cold front passage is followed by high
pressure building from the Canadian Prairies.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Jaszka

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
619 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

LEZ142>146-162>166-OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037-022230-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Marion-
Morrow-
619 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ147>149-167>169-OHZ012>014-021>023-031>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-
022230-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-Crawford-
619 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
557 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND GST     STREETSBORO             41.24N 81.35W
06/01/2022  E70 MPH          PORTAGE            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 70 MPH WIND GUST AND ONE
            INCH HAIL IN STREETSBORO.

&&

SEFCOVIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
559 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE TWINSBURG         41.28N 81.43W
06/01/2022                   SUMMIT             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES SNAPPED OFF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE HUDSON            41.24N 81.42W
06/01/2022                   SUMMIT             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
610 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

OHZ047-012300-
Knox OH-
610 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Knox County
through 700 PM EDT...

At 610 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Centerburg, or 10 miles southwest of Mount Vernon,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Gambier, Utica, Centerburg, Martinsburg and
Bladensburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8268 4032 8269
      4043 8219 4027 8219 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 258DEG 32KT 4025 8258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW CHAMPION HEIGHTS  41.28N 80.93W
06/01/2022                   TRUMBULL           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S SHEFFIELD           41.44N 82.10W
06/01/2022                   LORAIN             OH   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF TREE INTO POWER LINES
            AND A CAR ON EAST RIVER RD IN SHEFFIELD
            VILLAGE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

SEFCOVIC