Wildfire in Oklahoma, September 27, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

A weak front is expected to move into northwest Oklahoma this
afternoon with generally northeast winds behind the boundary and
south to southwest winds elsewhere.  This will result in another
very warm day with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Afternoon relative humidity is expected to bottom out around
20 percent most areas.  Although winds are not expected to be
strong, wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph may occur during peak heating.
This may result in a short period of elevated fire weather
conditions generally ahead of the surface boundary. A Fire Danger
Statement will be issued for a large part of the area to highlight
the potential hazard.

With a clear sky and light winds, temperatures will cool rather
quickly during the early evening.  The front is also expected
to drift southward into central Oklahoma during the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

With a mid-level ridge centered just to our west, dry and warm
weather will continue. However, the circulation around a large
surface high over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest should help take
the edge off afternoon highs (most areas). The exception may be
southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas where surface winds
may maintain more of a downslope component. (Wednesday-Thursday)

Circulation around the surface high and hurricane Ian will keep rich
Gulf moisture well to our south despite a southerly surface wind.
This will result in more warm days and rather cool pleasant
evenings.

Around Friday/Saturday, a low, which is primarily cutoff from the
stronger westerlies in Canada, will move slowly across the northern
Rockies. The influence from the cool high pressure (now over New
England) will begin to fade, but some influences from the remnants
of Ian may linger through at least the early part of the
weekend.  Somewhat stronger surface winds may develop during the
afternoon Friday as a lee trough develops (especially northwest
Oklahoma). Unfortunately the chances of meaningful rainfall look
very low. With mainly warm days and cool nights, days with
stronger winds will elevate fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions will continue this TAF cycle. A wind shift will
progress across western most sites overnight.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...Lacy/TSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
439 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-272100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
439 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Oklahoma, east central Oklahoma, northern Oklahoma, northwest
Oklahoma, southeast Oklahoma, southern Oklahoma, southwest
Oklahoma, western Oklahoma, and northern Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for several hours
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

.Fire Weather...
Spotty areas of elevated fire weather concerns are expected on
Friday, mainly across western Oklahoma.