Tropical Storm and Storm Surge in Florida, September 27 to 28, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
136 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
After making landfall in western Cuba earlier this morning, Major
Hurricane Ian has now emerged into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. As of 1100 am, Ian was centered about 125 miles south
southwest of the Dry Tortugas, moving to the north at 10 mph, with
maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. Despite a minor drift in
track to the southeast over the past 12 hours, the overall impacts
largely will be unchanged for the Florida Keys.

The outer rainbands of Major Hurricane Ian continue to push in
waves across the CWA. Rainfall totals associated with Ian have
already reached between 3 and 9 inches at most island communities,
and an additional several inches of rainfall can be expected over
the next 36 hours. The Florida Keys remain in the right front
quadrant of Ian, which is the quadrant most favorable for isolated
tornado formation in the Florida Keys. The Storm Prediction Center
in Norman, Oklahoma has placed the entire Florida Keys and coastal
waters in a tornado watch through 500 pm. At this time, the
greatest chances for tornado formation may actually be in the
Middle and Upper Keys, where breaks in rainfall has likely led to
some low- level tropospheric destabilization.

Winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon and evening, peaking
in the overnight hours. Tropical Storm force gusts will become
more frequent during this period across the entire island chain,
with tropical storm force sustained winds also possible in the
Middle and Upper Keys. Due to its slow motion and forecast track,
bouts of trailing squalls will likely continue through much of
the day tomorrow, perhaps extending into tomorrow evening.

In terms of storm surge, the biggest impacts will occur at and
just after times of tide time, just after noon and midnight each
day. It cannot be emphasized enough that the storm surge threat
will not end once Ian moves to the northwest of the island chain.
In fact, the greatest storm surge will likely occur after this
northward displacement.

Once Ian finally loses its grip over Florida, a very dry,
continental airmass will advect into the Florida Keys for Thursday
night through early next week. Rain chances will be below normal
for this extended period (slight at best), which will
siginificantly aid in any cleanup efforts required behind Ian. In
fact, there are some indications that dew points may reach as low
as near 70 degrees by early next week, something we have not seen
in several months.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far western waters,
including the western Straits of Florida and the offshore Gulf of
Mexico coastal waters surrounding the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the nearshore and offshore waters
of the Lower and Middle Keys, including Hawk Channel and the
Gulfside waters. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
nearshore and offshore waters of the Upper Keys, including the
Florida Bay, eastern Hawk Channel, and the eastern Straits of
Florida. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for all of the
Florida Keys, with current coastal flooding and high tides likely
to be exacerbated by the passage of potential Major Hurricane Ian
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

From synopsis, breezes will continue to freshen as Major Hurricane
Ian approaches the extreme western coastal waters of the Florida
Keys this afternoon and evening. Mariners are reminded that while
the actual center of Ian is expected to remain west of the Florida
Keys coastal waters, extremely hazardous conditions are expected
to continue for all marine zones. Although Ian will slowly depart
to the northeast by Wednesday night into Thursday, hazardous seas
will likely continue through at least Friday night for the western
marine zones, including the Dry Tortugas. Mariners should
continue to monitor the latest information provided by the
National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service office
in Key West

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
The outer rainbands of Hurricane Ian will continue to ravage the
Keys' coastal waters and inland areas, resulting in periods of
sub- VFR conditions at both terminals. Conditions continue to
deteriorate throughout today as Ian pushes northwest to north over
the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to increase and veer to be
out of the southeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys' weather history in 1987, the daily record
rainfall of 3.70" was recorded at Key West International Airport.
Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  87  77  87  78 / 100  90  70  60
Marathon  88  77  89  79 / 100  90  80  60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ076>078.

     Storm Surge Watch for FLZ076>078.

     Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ076.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ077-078.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ031-042-052-072.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ032-033-035-043-044-053-054-073-
     074.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031-042-
     052-072.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ034-055-075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....TW
Data Acquisition.....AP

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
525 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-281100-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
525 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

...Hurricane Warning for the Dry Tortugas...
...Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys...
...Storm Surge Warning for the Dry Tortugas...
...Storm Surge Watch for all of the Florida Keys...
...Flood Watch in effect for all Florida Keys...
...Tornado Watch for the Florida Keys through 5am...

Hurricane Ian will continue move northward across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. A Hurricane Warning is
in effect for the Dry Tortugas and surrounding waters. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and surrounding
coastal waters, including Florida Bay. Tropical storm force
winds, mainly in gusts during passing squalls, will occur through
evening, with sustained tropical storm force winds likely later
this evening through Wednesday morning, especially in the Lower
Florida Keys. A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for all the
Florida Keys, for potential coastal saltwater inundation of 2 to 3
feet above normal high tides. Minor saltwater flooding of low
elevation streets and lots is expected to continue today, ahead of
the more significant flooding as Ian passes by to our west.

An additional 4 to 6 inches of rainfall is possible anywhere in
the Florida Keys through Thursday, which could result in localized
freshwater flooding. The Florida Keys are under a Tornado Watch
through 5am Wednesday, for isolated tornadoes embedded in
rainbands.

Residents and visitors should continue to closely monitor the
latest information from the National Hurricane Center and the
National Weather Service office in Key West.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hurricane Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida
on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a major hurricane. The threat
for tropical storm force winds, mainly in fast moving squalls,
will continue along the Keys island chain into Wednesday morning,
and for the offshore Gulf waters through Wednesday afternoon.

Coastal flooding on the Bay and Gulf side, especially in the
Upper Keys, is expected to continue for some time after Ian
departs the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
317 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 WSW BOCA CHICA        24.56N 81.76W
09/27/2022                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 46 KTS, OR 53 MPH, WAS RECORDED BY THE
            ASOS KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 235 PM EDT. THIS
            GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE
            IAN.

&&

AP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
443 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TROPICAL STORM   5 WSW BOCA CHICA CHANNE 24.55N 81.80W
09/27/2022                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   PUBLIC

            A LARGE SILVER BUTTONWOOD WAS DOWNED BY HIGH WINDS ON
            UNITED STREET AND DUVAL STREET IN KEY WEST.

&&

AP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
457 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 WSW BOCA CHICA        24.56N 81.75W
09/27/2022                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH, OR 52 KTS, WAS RECORDED BY THE
            ASOS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 445 PM EDT.
            THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER RAINBAND OF
            HURRICANE IAN.

&&

AP