Drought in Oklahoma, September 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 942 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

A few features of interest this evening...1...a weak surface
boundary positioned west to east across Southeast
Oklahoma...2...a frontal boundary stretched west to east across
Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas...and 3...an area of
upper level low pressure/vort max in Northern Texas. Overnight
tonight...the vort max is expected to begin lifting north
northeast into Oklahoma which should lift the western side of the
frontal boundary northward with it positioned more northwest to
southeast across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early
Thursday morning. As the vort max lifts into Oklahoma there is at
least a slight chance of additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop overnight as the vort max interacts with the boundary in
Southeast Oklahoma.

Also overnight...scattered to broken cloud cover associated with
the vort max should continue to spread across the CWA. At the same
time...dewpoints look to increase some as the frontal boundary
repositions across Northeast Oklahoma. These conditions should
keep low temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the
CWA...with low/mid 60s possible north/northeast of the front along
the Kansas border into far Northwest Arkansas.

For the evening update...have adjusted PoPs for tonight based on
timing and movement of the vort max...and also made a few tweaks
to low temps tonight based on the position of the frontal
boundary/cloud cover. The rest of the forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Shortwave trough currently over the north central Plains will
rotate SSE across the forecast area tomorrow through Thursday.
This feature along with convectively enhanced vort max currently
over west TX will evolve into a persistent mid level trough with
potential for weak mid level circulation residing over the local
area. This along with expanding plume of deep moisture will lead
to increasing daily coverage of showers and storms. Forecast wind
fields remain weak through a deep layer and resultant slow moving
cell motions will allow for locally heavy rainfall amounts. Temps
will be impacted by the eventual coverage of precip / cloud cover
which should keep high temps within a few degrees of seasonal
normals.

The overall pattern of weak mid level troughing overhead is likely
to persist through the holiday weekend and into early next week.
This weak forcing amidst deep moisture warrants a daily mention
of showers and storms area wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022

Scattered thunderstorms will occur Thursday afternoon and evening
and may affect any of the TAF sites. Mainly VFR conditions will
prevail outside of thunderstorm areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  72  91  70 /  20  20  20  20
FSM   90  72  89  70 /  40  30  40  20
MLC   85  70  88  69 /  60  30  50  20
BVO   94  69  93  67 /  20  20  20  20
FYV   87  67  85  65 /  20  20  30  20
BYV   89  68  85  67 /  20  20  30  20
MKO   87  69  86  68 /  30  20  40  20
MIO   92  68  89  66 /  20  20  20  20
F10   88  69  89  68 /  40  30  40  20
HHW   85  71  86  70 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
946 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
946 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will become possible
overnight tonight into early Thursday morning across southeast
Oklahoma as an area of low pressure in Texas lifts into Oklahoma.
Severe weather is not anticipated tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern is expected to persist across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the weekend and into early
next week, leading to daily thunderstorm potential. While
organized severe weather is not expected at this time, a limited
threat for both damaging winds and large hail will exist with the
strongest storms late this week and into the weekend. Localized
heavy rain may also occur.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.